Cranky Friday

joe6pack Uncategorized

Britan GONE  from the EU.25F1B87B00000578-0-image-a-15_1424600556118

The polls were tight but all the pundits and betting agencies were so sure the punters would do as they were told and vote to Stay.

Wrong

Remeber back to the Qld Election. All the pundits said the LNP would be returned Easily?

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Wrong. Labor won a tight contest . Silly Punters said the media.

Now one week to go till our Federal election and most of the polls have labor just ahead or at worst 50/50 we are still being told the punters will fall into line and Saint Malcom will win .How stupid are they.How do they know just by talking amongst themselves. The  “talk in the pub” is a common term I hear some right wing Broadcasters use.

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How would they know? They wouldn’t have been in a working class pub in years. Unless to visit the toilets  maybe.

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One week to go and nothing is settled .I am not saying labor will win, nor am I saying they will lose, but with things so tight it amazes me that these so called experts pitch out such confident predictions. I look forward to some humble pie eating if Labor do win but I guess the chances of that happening are the same as Syd winning a dog show .

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Not impossible but highly unlikley.

Bar is open

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and Jukebox is free

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One week to go

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189 thoughts on “Cranky Friday”

    • And I hope that we can write a new cautionary nursery rhyme about Malcom Tumble then.

  3. Been out at prepoll handing out how to vote cards so some thoughts and observations on the EU referendum

    1: further proof that fear campaigns about immigrants work.
    2: If the UK had our referendum rules they would be still in the EU.
    3: If anyone’s planning a UK holiday better do it now before the pound stops plummeting.

  6. Now watch the Libs ably supported by the MSM launch the mother of all scare campaigns based around Brexit.

    • The ALP should remind voters that if the Libs were in government during the GFC, their policies would’ve led Australia into recession.

    • Perhaps they can find a way of scaring with economic affects, but I really think our Anglophile-type attitudes are now distant, aided by multi-culturalism from the Whitlam era onwards.

      I don’t think it’s any more relevant here than the Royals and knighthoods. It may lead to a bit of cheering from the hard right, which does embrace the diminishing number of Land of Hope and Glory types. They’ll be cheering, but I doubt that most here will feel much pro or con.

  7. The final referendum numbers for the night appear to be as follows:

    Leave – 17,410,742 – 51.89%
    Remain – 16,141,241 – 48.11%

    So yeah. Given that Scotland very clearly wanted to stay, that’ll cause tensions most probably.

    • The results in Scotland were:

      Leave – 1,018,322 – 38%
      Remain – 1,661,191 – 62%

  9. Andrew P Street on Brexit.

    Dear Australians,
    You know what won Brexit? Voluntary voting.
    Only around 70 per cent of the people that could vote actually did – and angry, scared people are more motivated to vote than calm, not-terrified people (as every study of US voting patterns suggests).
    Also angry, scared people are less likely to be put off by things like it being inconvenient or cold or a long queue, and also typically make terrible, dangerous, short-term decisions.
    Australia’s superweapon is and has always been compulsory voting. It’s the greatest idea we ever had, and it’s something we need to protect.
    Whenever someone advocates voluntary voting, remember: they don’t have your best interests at heart.
    Yours ever,
    APS
    PS: Speaking of which, I’m predicting a massive turnout at the US elections in November, assuming that people are still scared of a Trump win. I can guarantee it’ll still be less than two thirds of eligible voters, though

    https://www.facebook.com/andrew.p.street?fref=nf

    • this basically means that only about 37% of the total electorate voted to leave the EU.

  10. Also two questions to ask

    1: will the Irish government follow through on its threat to set up border posts between the republic and northern Ireland

    2: will the SNP try to hold a second referendum on independence given the result in Scotland?

  12. Huh, well, that was fast. But it’s an expected result that Cameron is stepping down.

    Now I’m wondering if Boris Johnson will be the unanimous successor or if another one might step in to challenge him?

  14. This time last year I spent 5 weeks in Ireland, much of it in NI as my OH met up with rellos and did some family history research.
    It is nearly thirty years since I have spent any time much in Ireland, but still I was surprised at the many changes, good and bad. In NI it was the Marching Season, culminating in the great bombastic drunken “up you” of the 12th July march, held for some reason on the 13th last year. For the most part everybody was most polite and inclusive, but having a name like Mick in NI is akin to having a name like Abdul at News Corp. Every body has a close eye on you.
    But the thing that surprised me most was the attitude of the people I met in NI who have become very disillusioned about the reality of Britain. They are still in thrall to the fable Britain, but reality Britain is a turnoff. NI, of course is an economic backwater, most industry gone and nothing much to replace it despite a superficial attempt to attract Hi Tech industries to the Belfast area particularly. I don’t think the circus of spite and contempt that is the marching season helps much in attracting new business. Several Protestants (yes, you know the religion of every person you meet in NI, it is an obsession with them to compartment everybody by religion and most strangers were introduced with reference to their particular sect. It wasn’t required with me, no self respecting Prod would name his son Mick!) who I spoke to claimed a feeling of abandonment by Britain and a loosening of their ties. They looked toward the Republic of Ireland with a little envy as it visibly prospered while they languished, and you got the sense that if there is another fifty years or so of peace then reunification would be a chance of getting up.
    In the south, though, things were much different. Most people I spoke with didn’t want to have anything to do with the North, Catholic or Prod. They were sick of the sound and sight of them, although there was a lot of sympathy for the Catholics for the civil rights abuses they suffered for so long until fairly recently.
    But the general feeling was, the Catholics had won the battle. They had gotten what they wanted and there was no longer any particular advantage in being a Prod in NI. At the same time, and probably incidentally, they feel unloved and unwanted by GB, and lowest blow of all, the Republic. So many of the marches were not particularly triumphant (I saw marches in Belfast, Lurgan and Armagh) but doleful and sullen like drunken Bowling Club members being kept unhappily in line for the toilets.

  16. I’ll sneak in a…

    Quick HI Update.
    … no change.

    All the bullshit (a month ago today) about imminent announcement of outcomes was just that.

    The.Usual.Crap.

    P.S. If I had some serious money, I’d be buying Aussie stocks and shares on Monday. Bargain prices brought low by the usual herd leaders panicking over nothing. Brexit doesn’t even START for 2 years, and could take a lot longer.

    P.P.S. I would vote for Sid at any dog show.

  18. I keep getting
    The security certificate for this web site has been revoked,
    I also get pages stuck and unable to update .Just with The Pub- makes me wonder are we too subversive?

  20. You would think after many years and meetings with BB and myself, lunches,Dinners,Flights ,etc. and being a man of undeniable writing talents that he would Know the Sids name is SYD. After his home town. No Bother I guess Poor Syd.
    I put it down to drambuie

  21. Catalyst
    Evey thing on this site is protected as much as I can with proper secutity companies
    Too subservise? I am the one whould cop anything .
    Luckily for all of us we have a very clever person who more or less vets evrything.

    • A wish to far but Oh for one of them to be that of the world’s most vicious root vegetable the P Duddy.

  23. A Few stats on the EU referendum

    Largest remain vote: Gibraltar, 95.9%

    Largest leave vote: Boston, Lincolnshire, 75.6%

    Largest city to vote leave: Birmingham

    Largest city to vote remain: London

    narrowest victory for remain: Moray, Scotland, 50.1%

    narrowest victory for leave: tie between Cherwell, Oxfordshire and Watford, Hertfordshire, 50.3%

  24. Lowest turnout: Belfast West, 48.9% (remain won with 74.1%)

    Highest turnout: Tie between Gibraltar and Chiltern, Buckinghamshire (remain won Gibraltar with 95.9% and Chiltern with 55%)

  25. I apologize to SYD.

    Please give him a big”Sorry” kiss (in the French fashion) from me, Joe.

    I think a full tonguey and a feel along the teeth would be appropriate in the circumstances.

    If I was there, I’d officiate of course (you know that, mate), but as you’re on the spot in Qld, Joe…

  28. bushfirebill
    He accepts your apology
    Syd has no need for a kiss in the ” French Fashon” from me . He knows he is loved.

  29. That little bit of optimism that I have hidden under my small toenail has vanished. I really want it to come back. I thought with only a week to go we would have had some definitive polling, which is scarcer than hen’s teeth, that would give us a signal of how thing will pan out. This Brexit thingy has maybe put a spanner in the works.

    I see on twitter that Labor is doing a second launch in Qld on Sunday, will be interested to see if it gets any publicity.

    Hope all who are affected by this very cold snap are keeping warm. Thinking of you Fiona in your den with your little heater.

  36. To this colleague, I’d say:

    You gets what you pays for.

  37. Brexit ? R.E.M. had a song.

    “It’s the end of the world as we know it. (but I feel fine)”

  39. https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-23june16

    https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-cowper-poll-23june2016

    https://www.laborherald.com.au/education/lifting-productivity-in-biosecurity-sector/

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/04/fully-loaded-ten-biggest-gun-manufacturers-america

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/06/cca-private-prisons-corrections-corporation-inmates-investigation-bauer

  41. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/24/election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-eu-refendum-liberal-party-marriage-equality

    http://www.nytimes.com/live/eu-referendum/sinn-fein-calls-for-a-vote-on-a-united-irela/

  43. Laurie Oakes – Pfffft!

    Does anyone seriously think the Brexit vote will affect the way Australians vote? Seriously?

    We are talking about the vast majority of voters, the ones who who can’t name their local candidates, or have NFI whether this is a federal, state or council election, or only vote to avoid a fine, or have no idea who they will vote for until they are in the booth with the pencil in their hand and just want to get it done and dusted so they can get home and watch recordings of My Kitchen Rules or look at the footy.

    Does anyone think the vast majority of Australian voters will say ‘Oh My! The Brits are out of the EU. We’d better vote for Malcolm then, because he’s the only one who can save us now”. What rubbish, Mr Oakes.

    • Just a bit of bootstrapping. There’s a measure of desperation abroad as the Liberals look for something, anything, to latch on to. Every couple of days they think they’ve found it, and every couple of days they discover they haven’t. They’ve no doubt given up on the ‘Medicare Scare Campaign!!’ angle, and they’re having a go at Brexit now.

      However, the Brexit angle relies on everyone believing the Liberals are both good money managers and a stable party, and those notions died a long time ago. It’s a dead end for them, they’ll realise that soon enough.

  45. Leone,

    Does anyone think the vast majority of Australian voters will say ‘Oh My! The Brits are out of the EU. We’d better vote for Malcolm then, because he’s the only one who can save us now”

    The spin tells us more about the “journalists” than Australian voters.

    • Anything to avoid talking about the train wreck that is the Liberal election campaign, Fizza’s plummeting polling, Labor ahead in the polls for the whole campaign, the scandals – new one every day – that none of them will ever mention …………

  47. I apologise for my (comparative) absence recently. Things have been really busy at the workhouse finalising all the minutiae (including the marks) for the course I’ve been involved with. When you have 700 students things are apt to get a bit complicated. However, everything now seems to be in order, so all we have to worry about – apart from the examiners’ meeting next week – is the supplementary exam in mid July. I am sure we will cope.

    To Joe6pack, thank you for your great Friday posts.

    To Syd, you have my vote any time for best dog.

    To Pubsters in general, thank you for your magnificent commentary, all of which I have read, your links, some of which I have read, and your engagement and camaraderie.

    Not a bad place, this, on an icy-cold Melbourne evening!

  48. Somebody’s going to have to explain that Reachtel poll to me. I don’t see how this:

    – can translate to an unchanged 51-49 the way of the Coalition. They lost over 1% PV, which appears to have gone to the Greens, which will mostly head to the ALP in preferences. ‘Unchanged’ seems extraordinarily generous to them.

    • I suppose the best that can be explained on it is that it might have translated from something like 51.4-48.6 to 50.5-49.5, according to rounding?

      With Reachtel, however, they normally use the respondent-allocated 2pp result instead of the previous election preferences as their headline, so that may account for some degree of the ridiculousness of the 2pp vote not changing.

  49. Oh FFS!

    Now Fairfax has a piece up telling us Shorten’s Medicare ‘scare campaign’ is damaging Labor. This is, of course, a follow-on to the ‘ Shorten grilled by Leigh Sales’ rubbish earlier today. It comes with a video clip from last night’s 7.30 and the claim Shorten is ‘watering down’ his earlier comments.

    Find your own link, I’m not posting links to that garbage.

    Everyone you talk to, everywhere you go, people are talking about Medicare. It’s a huge issue, and from what I hear people are scared of losing what we have. Not that Fairfax will tell you that. They prefer to make up crap and promote the government.

    • Barry J,

      Yes, he’s busy on Twitter.

      I will get out The Pub’s lasso at an appropriate moment.

    • Not being a twitter user myself but I can imagine him having a ball engaging the RWNJs.

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