Waiting for Wentworth

Current make-up of the House of Representatives

Liberal 44 + LNP 21 + National 10 = 75

Labor 69

Bandt + Katter + McGowan + Sharkie + Wilkie = 5

And then there is Wentworth

Under starter’s orders are

Candidate Name Party
CALLANAN Robert Katter’s Australian Party
KANAK Dominic Wy The Greens
HIGSON, Shayne Voluntary Euthanasia Party
GEORGANTIS, Steven Australian People’s Party
MURRAY, Tim Labor
FORSYTH, Ben Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party
ROBINSON, Tony Australian Liberty Alliance
GUNNING, Samuel Joseph Liberal Democrats
SHARMA, Dave Liberal
VITHOULKAS, Angela Independent
DOYLE, Deb Animal Justice Party
LEONG, Andrea Science Party
HEATH, Licia Independent
KELDOULIS, Barry The Arts Party
PHELPS, Kerryn Independent
DUNNE, Kay Sustainable Australia

The ABC has all the details https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wentworth-by-election-2018/

Antony Green’s take last night on the outcome was that, on primaries and after the distribution of preferences from the “minor” players, Sharma would finish first and Phelps and Murray second or third. If Phelps finished second she would get in on Labor preferences. If Murray finished second then who knows.

If Sharma were to lose then the L/NP would only have 75 seats and then they would have problems on any vote requiring an absolute majority to get passed.

 

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The flowers that bloom in the spring

The flowers that bloom in the spring,
Tra la,
Breathe promise of merry sunshine —
As we merrily dance and we sing,
Tra la,
We welcome the hope that they bring,
Tra la,
Of a summer of roses and wine,
Of a summer of roses and wine.
And that’s what we mean when we say that a thing
Is welcome as flowers that bloom in the spring.
Tra la la la la,
Tra la la la la,
The flowers that bloom in the spring.

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Pour yourself a drink

and enjoy the show

Wagga Wagga bye-bye election

The Wagga Wagga by-election has reached its conclusion.

Background

In the by-election on 14 December 1957, on the death of Eddie Graham (Labor), Wal Fife (Liberal) won the seat of Wagga Wagga.

The seat was held by the Liberals till 2018. At the 28 March 2015 election, the seat was won by Daryl Maguire with 53.8% first preferences and beating Dan Hayes (Labor) by 62.9% to 37.1% on preferences.

In July 2018, Maguire was drawn into an inquiry by the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption regarding possible corruption involving the former Canterbury Council, through his association with former councillor Michael Hawatt. It was alleged that Maguire had acted on behalf of a “mega big” Chinese client, asking for help in buying into development-approved projects, in return for a commission from the developer for both himself and Hawatt. As a consequence, Maguire resigned from the Liberal Party, and from his roles as Parliamentary Secretary for the Centenary of ANZAC, Counter Terrorism, Corrections and Veterans. After initially refusing to resign from Parliament, he announced he would do so before its next sitting. Maguire tendered his resignation to the Speaker of the Legislative of Assembly on the afternoon of 3 August 2018.

Writs were issued on 17 August for a by-election on  8 September.

The candidates

At the close of nominations, the candidates, in ballot paper order, were

  • Seb McDonagh (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • Julia Ham (Liberal)
  • Joe McGirr (Independent)
  • Ray Goodlass (Greens)
  • Tom Arentz (Christian Democratic Party)
  • Paul Funnell (Independent)
  • Dan Hayes (Labor)

The count

The voting system was optional preferential, which is why the total votes decreased as preferences were distributed or exhausted.

Wagga Wagga 2018 by-election preference count.png

Erratum: 844 should be 13443 and 3650 should be 42574

The result

Interesting that Ham held her lead until preferences for Funnell and Hayes were distributed. In the end, McGirr won with a whopping 59.6% to Ham’s 40.4%.

The Liberals’ first preferences dropped from 53.8% to 25.5%; two-party preferred from 62.9% to 40.4%.