Waiting for Wentworth

Current make-up of the House of Representatives

Liberal 44 + LNP 21 + National 10 = 75

Labor 69

Bandt + Katter + McGowan + Sharkie + Wilkie = 5

And then there is Wentworth

Under starter’s orders are

Candidate Name Party
CALLANAN Robert Katter’s Australian Party
KANAK Dominic Wy The Greens
HIGSON, Shayne Voluntary Euthanasia Party
GEORGANTIS, Steven Australian People’s Party
MURRAY, Tim Labor
FORSYTH, Ben Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party
ROBINSON, Tony Australian Liberty Alliance
GUNNING, Samuel Joseph Liberal Democrats
SHARMA, Dave Liberal
VITHOULKAS, Angela Independent
DOYLE, Deb Animal Justice Party
LEONG, Andrea Science Party
HEATH, Licia Independent
KELDOULIS, Barry The Arts Party
PHELPS, Kerryn Independent
DUNNE, Kay Sustainable Australia

The ABC has all the details https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wentworth-by-election-2018/

Antony Green’s take last night on the outcome was that, on primaries and after the distribution of preferences from the “minor” players, Sharma would finish first and Phelps and Murray second or third. If Phelps finished second she would get in on Labor preferences. If Murray finished second then who knows.

If Sharma were to lose then the L/NP would only have 75 seats and then they would have problems on any vote requiring an absolute majority to get passed.


368 thoughts on “Waiting for Wentworth

  1. Part 15: The Rocky Mountain States (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico)

    In Wyoming, incumbent Republican Senator John Barrasso will be easily elected. In New Mexico, Incumbent Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich is favoured for reelection but it’ll be interesting if former New Mexico Governor and 2016 Libertarian Party Candidate Gary Johnson can push the Republicans into third, as some polls suggest. The senate race in Montana is a close one with incumbent Democratic senator John Tester leading his Republican challenger Matt Rosendale by between 3-5 points on average. Also because Tester sunk Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Trump appears to have made defeating him a personal obsession as he’s made three trips to Montana in the last month.

    House of Representatives
    There are two competitive districts here. In Colorado’s 6th District, Republican incumbent Mike Coffman is trailing by about nine points in his suburban Denver district that Clinton won by about 9 points. While New Mexico’s 2nd district, which covers the southern portion of the state and was carried by Trump by about 10 percent, has become a tight race between the Republicans’ Yvette Herrell and the Democrats’ Xochitl Torres Small.

    In this region no incumbent governor is running for reelection. The Republicans will easily hold onto the governorships in Idaho and Wyoming, while the Democrats are favoured to hold on to the governorship in Colorado and to pick up the New Mexico governorship from the Republicans.

    State Legislatures
    Montana House of Representatives (all 100 seats up for election): Republicans: 59 seats, Democrats: 41 seats. Democrats need to gain 10 seats to win control.
    Montana State Senate (25 of 50 seats up for election): Republicans: 32 seats, Democrats: 18 seats. Democrats need to gain 8 seats to win control.

    Idaho House of Representatives (All 70 seats up for election): Republicans: 59 seats, Democrats: 11 seats. Democrats need to gain 25 seats to win control.
    Idaho State Senate (All 35 seats up for election): Republicans: 29 seats, Democrats: 6 seats. Democrats need to gain 12 seats to win control.

    Wyoming House of Representatives (All 60 seats up for election): Republicans: 51 seats, Democrats: 9 seats. Not mathematically possible for Democrats to win control (need 22 seats but only running candidates in 16 republican-held seats).
    Wyoming State Senate (15 of 30 seats up for election). Republicans: 27 seats, Democrats: 3 seats. Not mathematically possible for Democrats to win control (need 13 seats but only running candidates in 5 Republican-held seats).

    Colorado House of Representatives (All 65 seats up for election): Democrats: 36 seats, Republicans: 29 seats. Republicans need to gain 4 seats to win control.
    Colorado State Senate (17 of 35 seats up for election): Republicans: 18 seats, Democrats: 16 seats, Independent: 1 seat. Democrats need to gain 2 seats to win control.

    New Mexico House of Representatives (All 70 seats up for election): Democrats: 38 seats, Republicans: 32 seats. Republicans need to gain 4 seats to win control.
    New Mexico State Senate: Not up for election this year.

    Ballot Measures
    In Colorado there is a ballot measure that would change the definition of industrial hemp from a constitutional definition to a statutory definition, while there are two measures that would create independent redistricting commissions for congressional and state legislative districts respectively. Polling has only been done for Amendment Y, which would create the commission for congressional seats, and it shows the measure leading heavily. In Idaho there is a measure that would expand eligibility for Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act to those under 65 years old and whose income is 133 percent of the national poverty line. In Montana there is a ballot measure that would extend their Medicaid expansion and raise taxes on tobacco to fund the expansion. No polls have been conducted for these two measures.

    • Extra addition:

      Montana’s at large (sole) congressional seat could also be an outside chance for a Democratic pick up with the latest poll showing Incumbent Republican congressman Greg Gianforte only 3 points ahead.

  2. Open one of his tweets to see more info in the rest of his thread.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    In another good contribution from him John Warhurst contracts the Wentworth byelection and the national apology day and does find a conjunction.
    John Hewson pours scorn on the Coalition by saying that if they are going to apportion blame for the Wentworth result, go directly to Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton and the mere handful of bitter and twisted little men who supported them. Bang! Right between the eyes.
    Niki Savva writes that Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, ostensibly values-driven but really springing from deep-seated ­hatred and desire for revenge, combined with one of the worst weeks in the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison governments’ history, with its cavalcade of stories of grave miscalculation and self-harm, to deliver one of the worst by-election ­results in Australian political ­history. She goes into the ructions within the national Party too.
    Mungo MacCallum says that the Coalition Government has now gone into minority and the result, as PM Scott Morrison threatened, will be horrific!
    Poof! There goes all of 2018’s share market gains.
    Phil Coorey reports on how Morrison has intervened to spare NSW conservative Liberal MP Craig Kelly a certain preselection defeat in order to stop an outbreak of civil war inside the NSW Liberal Party and to improve his embattled government’s chances of holding the seat of Hughes.
    With the help of the awful Eric Abetz Luke Foley is under question about harassment but is vehemently denying any such accusation.
    Penny Wong managed to elicit a candid answer from Angus Campbell of the Jerusalem embassy thought bubble.
    Elizabeth Knight tells us that the latest Australian Institute of Company Directors report on sentiment should be a wake-up call for Canberra. Ouch!
    Climate change has emerged as the top concern inside the boardrooms of corporate Australia, new data shows, as directors also warn that the Morrison government’s performance is hurting consumer confidence.
    The SMH editorial begins by saying the apology to the child victims of sexual abuse this week touched the nation. It is now time to seize the deal offered by New Zealand to relieve the suffering of another group of children: those trapped on Nauru.
    The Age editorial says that unions are right on wages but wrong on tactics.
    In this analysis the author says that short of declaring war on the House of Saud, it is hard to imagine a more effective way for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to inflict so much damage.
    Bloomberg explains how it is investors’ aversion – whatever the cause –that is constraining investment in new oil and gas production; which could, in turn, tee up price spikes and economic damage. Pauline Hanson has pressured the government to abandon the fund and it is unpopular with conservative MPs including Tony Abbott.
    Nicole Hasham writes about how developing nations are saying a Morrison government snub of the world’s biggest climate change fund hampers efforts to cut global carbon pollution and erodes Australia’s international reputation.
    Choice’s Alan Kirkland writes about how power companies have rigged the game for years.
    David Crowe says Morrison energy pledge is at risk from hung parliament.
    Labor will oppose the government granting itself powers to force the divestment of energy companies, saying it will create an investment risk.
    And Katharine Murphy tells us how business, welfare, climate and energy groups have urged the Morrison government to put emissions reduction back on the table, warning a “global transition towards lower emissions and ultimately net zero emissions is both necessary and inevitable”.
    Greg Jericho writes that Scott Morrison’s big plan of ‘fair dinkum power’ is a relic of the past.
    Michael Pascoe is mot taken in by Morrison. He says that he on is not cutting our power bills and it’s just a stunt.
    Importing gas we have already exported? The gas “market” has become that preposterous. Finally, the consumer watchdog has called for gas supply to be earmarked for local markets. Gas analyst, Bruce Robertson, welcomes the move but says more needs to be done to attack high electricity prices.
    Michaela Whitbourn reports on yesterday’s court hearing on the Geoffrey Rush defamation case.
    John Silvester tells us that urgent court hearings that decide if dangerously ill refugee children should be flown to Australia have been thrown into doubt after the government challenged the Federal Court’s ability to order humanitarian evacuations.
    A former Home Affairs Department official says resettling asylum seekers in Australia would not restart the boats because of the effectiveness of the navy turning vessels around.
    Michelle Grattan looks closely at this.
    Credible surveys suggest Aussies are the richest in the world. But we’re just not buying it. Jess Irvine wonders why?
    Tony Featherstone explains why small and medium-size enterprises that do not adjust to rising expectations in industry and government on their cyber security risk being left behind.
    A new development in fibre optics could make internet speeds up to 100 times faster – by detecting light that has been twisted into a spiral. But hang on! Isn’t our NBN largely of copper?
    Self-styled preference whisperer Glenn Druery faces allegations of interference in the Victorian state election with the Reason Party formally complaining about his lucrative cash-for-votes operation.
    Ecuador does not plan to intervene with the British government on behalf of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange in talks over his situation as an asylee in the South American country’s London embassy.
    Stephen Bartholomeusz examines how BHP shareholders are set for a bonanza from its big $15b shale sale.
    Anna Patty explains how new junior employees who start work at Woolworths supermarkets will be paid base rates that are $1.15 less per hour than those for existing employees under a new wages agreement.
    CNN’s anchors were forced to evacuate on air after a fire alarm sounded, on a day when near identical pipe bombs were mailed to several prominent left-wing figures. Now I wonder what might have kicked the perpetrator off?
    The European parliament has overwhelmingly backed a wide-ranging ban on single-use plastics in an effort to tackle pollution in seas, fields and waterways. Under the proposed directive, items such as plastic straws, cotton swabs, disposable plastic plates and cutlery would be banned by 2021, and 90% of plastic bottle recycled by 2025.
    Sydney house prices are now back at 2016 levels after a 6.5 per cent drop new data shows.
    But Adelaide’s property price growth is predicted to be the strongest in the country over the next three years — surging by 12.4 per cent.
    Mikki Cusack writes that after purchasing overpriced houses, it seems many Sydney residents have nothing to do but watch TV for the rest of their lives.
    Treasury has warned that Australians will be forced to use their savings to counter record-low wage growth and rising living costs.
    Further adding to the gloom John Collett writes that prices of just about all major investment categories are falling, leaving investors scratching their heads about where to find a decent return.
    Sally Whyte reports that the use of labour hire staff in the Department of Human Services has extended to Medicare, adding to contractors already employed in Centrelink call centres and even front of house roles.
    Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has promised to hold a royal commission into mental health if his government is re-elected next month.
    The battle for your eyeballs and subscription dollars is on. Invest in your entertainment wisely, says Anthony Eales, and you’ll be the kingmaker in the content subscription wars.
    Just because a product is labelled as vegetarian, all-natural, low fat or gluten-free does not necessarily mean it is the healthiest item on the shelf, nutritionists and dietitians have warned. Many packaged products with these kinds of health claims may very well be low in fat or low in sugar, but this is often at the expense of other important nutrients.
    I’m glad this mob had the book thrown at them!
    Here’s a clear winner for today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    Really dark stuff here from David Rowe.

    Mark David has a crack at Mesma.

    Nice work on the Gillard portrait from Peter Broelman.

    Sean Leahy was there too.

    Glen Le Lievre has a new product for us.

    Zanetti and Morrison’s pricing policies.

    David Pope hangs a portrait at Parliament House.
    And something similar from Jon Kudelka.
    More in here.

  4. Seeing as how I have to take the old Bedford truck with the horses over the hills today, I will not be able to join in with or contribute to the lively chatter this blog WAS so respected for. So rather than see my reserved and valued commentary “seat” vacant, I will leave you all with this little cameo to perhaps amuse you while I am gone…Though I do see that The Duck, and his brilliant side-kick ; Leone..with their sparkling repartee and raconteurship will be a difficult act to follow, I will don the boater-hat and vaudeville cane and do my best at a impersonation of that last of the vaudevillians ..: Tommy Steel..with this short piece..Be warned, there may be suggestions of salacious behaviour that may make those “finishing school ladies” resident here blush…you have been warned…now dance on!

    “I say I say I say!”

    Jack Mitchell.

    Jack Mitchell shared the family home with his two sisters after the parents passed away..none of them ever married. Not that there were ever any suggestion of dubious behaviour amongst them one way or the other, it’s just that they never married..though I was told by a person who knew him,years later that “Joking Jack” was a very lonely man.

    Jack was full of jokes..he would drop one every few minutes in any conversation there in the front-bar of the Seacliff Hotel..He was never stuck for a word either..He used to work as a buyer for one of the biggest department stores in the city..:

    “I just started as a youngster there in lingerie and worked my way up!”..was his usual gag if any one asked about his employment. He was always snappily dressed in smart suit and tie, no matter what the night…which was nearly every night at the hotel. Whenever Jack told a joke, you could see he was dying to laugh at his own joke..this would be bad form, so he pinched his lips together as tight as he could..but that was rarely enough and a slight splutter and a bit of foamy spittle would cover his lips after.

    One month, Jack, with a couple of other older blokes, took a trip to Bangkok. Now, the only reason many men went to Bangkok in those days was for sex..sex in any shape or form..Bangkok was notorious for it..so when Jack returned to the front bar after the “holiday’ a couple of younger men there started to take the piss..:

    “Jack!” one called out across the other side of the U-shaped bar. “Tell us Jack..; How was the hol-i-day in BANG-KOK!?”..and then followed a spot of laughter..

    ‘Well boys” Jack began after sipping the foam off the top of his beer “ Well, boys..you know there’s an old saying that if a balding man..much like myself..was to rub his pate against that most tender and private part of a young lady..then his hair would grow back..”..and here Jack took a slow draught of his beer, wiped his lips with the back of his hand and with wide-eyed surprise announced in a loud voice to the lads: “Well it’s a lie!!”

    This admission brought laughter all ‘round.

    But Jack was always a conservative voter and a ‘boss’s man..he could be seen on some occasions in deep conference with the manager of the hotel, looking about with suspicious eyes…we believed he was the management’s watching eyes to detect and report on the young dope users and sellers in the hotel..we never trusted him..

    He has passed away many years now, and according to the one young man who did have his confidence, Jack Mitchell was a very lonely man .

  5. Headline in the GG

    ‘Activists targeting kids in school’

    OMG ! Al Qaeda ? ISIS ? No it is even worse than that.

    A prominent anti-bullying project with ties to the Safe Schools program has been accused of launching a recruitment drive.


  6. Alan Kirkland – “Logo in the letterbox that fills you with dread”

    Is that pro-government propaganda? It’s very positive about Anus Taylor’s idiotic plans to force power companies to lower their prices..

    We have heard all this rubbish about lower prices before from the Coalition. Abbott promised us $550 or maybe it was more, reports varied. All we got was increased prices, even without his alleged “carbon tax”.

    Why would anyone believe the lies form ScumMo and Taylor now?

    Just on the headline – how many consumers still get their electricity bills in the mail?

  7. The only way we get lower electricity prices is by the use of renewable power.

    Power providers don’t want to invest in coal now, they are all looking at renewables. Someone should tell ScumMo and his demented minions about that.

    Forcing companies to spend billions refurbishing aged and inefficient coal generators is just going to result in higher prices. Someone has to pay for all that renovation and costs WILL be passed on to consumers. If ScumMo says the government will subsidise the cost then we still pay. We provide the money for those subsidies and we will pay for them through reduced services, through higher fees for Medicare, through reduced funding for education and government services like home care and domestic violence help and through more cuts to welfare. The economic damage from this will be more than severe.

    This, people, is what we get when a government inflicts a failed advertising manager on us as PM and when the Libs and Nats keep on preselecting dinosaurs.

  8. Geez – ScumMo’s office can’t even give directions for a drive to a farm without stuffing up.

    And, in what is a wonderful metaphor for this place lately, it also saw the deputy PM, who I am told drove himself to the job, get lost on the way. Along with half the media pack. Apparently the directions from the PMO, once punched into Google Maps, sent people in circles.

    A lot of phone calls and, I am sure, some very lit What’s App messages later, and McCormack and the rest of the group made it to help Morrison point at things for the camera


    ScumMo pointing at things, from Mike Bowers –

  9. If his lips are moving he’s lying.

    Scummo, this afternoon, in QT –
    “I initiated the Royal Commission into the banking industry. When you look up the terms of reference, you’ll find my name on it.”

    Nope. I can’t see his name anywhere. Just Turnbull’s signature.And the GG’s, of course.

    The Terms of Reference are included in the Letters Patent –

    Click to access Signed-Letters-Patent-Financial-Services-Royal-Commission.pdf

    Not here either –

    Click to access DRAFT-TERMS-OF-REFERENCE.pdf

    I did find ScumMo’s name mentioned in this article from December last year, but not in the way he’d like us to think.

    The treasurer, Scott Morrison, even described the royal commission as “regrettable” – not because of any alleged actions by the banking system but because “politics is doing damage to our banking and financial system”


    No wonder Labor MPs fell about laughing at his ridiculous claim.

    Does ScumMo even know what “terms of reference” and “letters patent” are? I doubt it.

    • Morrison is heavily into his “if I change the story later on nobody’s going to be able to find out” phase. He thinks all of the internet is like Snapchat, where things just disappear after a while. He’ll soon be disabused of that idea.

      Although knowing our media, I daresay when Morrison says, “If you look up the terms of reference…” that’ll be taken as “Don’t look up the terms of reference.” Taking Coalition politicians at their word is a Press Gallery specialty.

    • This news makes me happy, first the shock on election night and now the slow drift away from their only hope of winning on postals. I think I may just run and jump and skip along, like this –

  10. Part 16: The South West (Arizona, Nevada, Utah)

    In Utah, Mitt Romeny will be easily elected to replace incumbent Republican senator Orrin Hatch. The Senate race in Nevada is a close race between Republican senator Dean Heller and Congresswoman Jackie Rosen. Similarly, the Arizona senate race is also a close one between Congresswoman Martha McSally for the Republicans and Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema for the Democrats.

    House of Representatives
    In Arizona the Tucson-based 2nd district, held by Martha McSally, looks likely to flip to the Democrats with polling showing former Congresswoman Anne Kirkpatrick with a healthy lead, while the 8th District could be an outside chance of flipping, although it voted heavily for Trump. The incumbent Debbie Lesko only won by about 5 percent in a special election earlier this year, Democrat Hiral Tipirneni may be able to build on the vote she obtained in the special election to pull out a win in November. In Nevada, the Democrats are likely to hold onto their three seats and the republicans are likely to hold on to their sole seat. In Utah, the 4th district could be, according to polls, a potential Democratic gain. With Incumbent Republican congresswoman Mia Love in a statistical tie with her Democratic challenger Ben McAdams.

    In Arizona incumbent governor Doug Ducey is favoured for reelection while in Nevada the race to replace term limited governor Brian Sandoval is a close one between the Democrats’ Steve Sisolak and the Republicans’ Adam Laxalt.

    State Legislatures
    Utah House of Representatives (All 75 seats up for election): Republicans: 62 seats, Democrats: 13 seats. Democrats need to gain 25 seats to win control.
    Utah State Senate (15 of 29 seats up for election): Republicans: 24 seats, Democrats: 5 seats. Not mathematically possible for Democrats to win control (need 10 but only running 8 candidates in Republican-held seats).

    Nevada State Assembly (All 42 seats up for election): Democrats: 27 seats, Republicans: 14 seats with 1 vacancy. Republicans need to gain 8 seats to win control.
    Nevada State Senate (11 of 21 seats up for election): Democrats: 10 seats, Republicans: 8 seats, Independent caucusing with the Democrats: 1 seat with 2 vacancies. Republicans need to gain 3 seats to win control)

    Arizona House of Representatives (All 60 seats up for election): Republicans: 35 seats, Democrats: 25 seats. Democrats need to gain 6 seats to win control.
    Arizona State Senate (All 30 seats up for election): Republicans: 17 seats, Democrats: 13 seats. Democrats need to gain 3 seats to win control.

    Ballot Measures
    In Arizona there is a ballot measure that would require 50 percent of energy to come from renewable resources by 2030. This measure was trailing in a poll conducted in late September. A similar measure is also on the ballot in Nevada (no polls conducted), while measures legalising medicinal marijuana and expanding medicaid are on the ballot in Utah. Both of these measures are leading in the polls.

  11. Part 17: California


    California had a all party primary in June with the top two candidates advancing to the general election in November, this sometimes leads to two candidates from the same party facing off against each other. This has happened for the Senate race. Polls indicate that Incumbent Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein has a strong lead over fellow Democrat, State Senate President pro tempore Kevin De Leon.

    House of representatives
    Trump’s deep unpopularity in California, combined with the number of Republican incumbents holding seats won by Hillary Clinton, means that California has an ample number pick up opportunities for the Democrats. Some of these districts include the 10th District in the Central Valley east of San Francisco, where incumbent Republican Jeff Denham is trailing by more than five percent. The 25th district to the north of Los Angeles,
    and the Suburban Los Angeles-based 39th District polls are showing tight races with the Democrats in the lead, there are similarly tight races in the 45th and 48th Districts in Orange County south of Los Angeles while the Democrats have taken a sizeable lead in the polls in the open 49th District just to the north of San Diego. In addition the 50th District, which covers rural areas east of San Diego is also proving to be a close contest, despite Trump winning it by 15 percent. The reason for this is that incumbent congressman Duncan Hunter and his wife were both indicted on fraud and campaign finance charges. This scandal could allow the Democrats candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar to win.

    Current Democratic Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom looks set to easily win the governorship, succeeding term limited incumbent Democrat Jerry Brown.

    State Legislature
    California State Assembly (All 80 seats up for election): Democrats: 55 seats, Republicans: 25 seats. Republicans need to gain 16 seats to win control.
    California State Senate (20 of 40 seats up for election): Democrats: 26 seats, Republicans: 14 seats. Not mathematically possible for Republicans to win control: (need 7 seats but are only running 5 candidates in Democratic-held seats).

    Ballot Measures
    The measures on the ballot in California this year are mainly about minor issues.

  12. Recusal is big in the UK. In Oz, not so much.

    Speaker John Bercow has told MPs he is “delighted” the House of Commons Commission has accepted in full the main recommendations of the Dame Laura Cox review into bullying and harassment in the House of Commons.

    Bercow recused himself from chairing the meeting at which the Cox recommendations were considered, since he himself has been the subject of a series of historic bullying allegations, which he denies – and which could now be investigated under the new, independent complaints system to be set up.


  13. This response was posted on The AIMN earlier this year as part of a heated discussion on the board about the status of refugees…: Were they “real” refugees or were they “economic” refugees?…

    What is termed; a refugee?

    I come into this conversation late as last night I was doing my best to avoid the study as that is also where the tele is and my better half likes to watch Q&A…and I can’t stand it!….So I came in about where someone was querying evidence of refugee status of the young man involved.
    This seems to be the hat that many Australians hang their hat of doubt upon..: Q: “Are they “real” refuges or are they taking advantage of us?”

    What is a refugee?…A woman escaping domestic violence is a refugee…A gender challenged individual escaping torment of their family is a refugee…both are sometimes escaping from a life-threatening situation..but they do not have to flee across borders to do it. So why is a refugee from , say ; Pakistan not staying in India or Thailand or Indonesia, where surely their religion can offer them sympathy instead of fleeing to Australia?..

    Yes..let us ask why many refugees do not seek safe harbour in sympathetic religious nations..
    For the sake of brevity, I will use a “demographic’ we are quite familiar with in this country ..the “German” pioneers who came and settled here from the 1850’s…These pioneers were refugees themselves after the Kaiser structured the “German Federation” to include many areas of Eastern Europe into the greater German Borders. There were many eastern peoples who had neither cultural, spiritual or name connections with the German State..and they paid for it and their situation was betrayed by little more than their surname.

    Many names we here in Aust’ now are familiar with were refugees from oppression back then..Names like Lehman, Modra, Koch (ie), and many others were Wends or Sorbs of Slavanic extraction, not German…some of these names were changed to disguise their original location identification…umlaut s were dropped off, vowels or consonants changed or moved..and one never carried papers that could positively identify oneself if you travelled to the west for work as many pogroms were happening where you could be murdered if you had the wrong name…one case was a relative who travelled to Gdansk for work in the shipyards and was murdered because his name identified him as eastern German.. another migrant from after the war I grew up with had a letter removed from their surname as it could be mistaken for a Jewish surname by the Nazis..and on it goes..

    So in reality, in those above mentioned countries that we, as cocooned Aussies consider one and the same are in reality NOT safe harbours, but just more danger…as we identify Kiwis by their dialect, so do other nations..I have a mate, an Italian who grew up here in Oz who travelled to Italy to his home town of his parents near Naples, he went to Rome for a bit of sight-seeing and while there, bought some cherries from a market stall, asking for them in his local dialect..the stall-holder, a Roman, gave him the bag of cherries with the remark : “Here you go sir…cherries…fresh from Naples this morning!”…you see, he had picked his dialect….Even myself on a trip to the Eternal city back in the seventies was shocked at so many beggars and I remarked (in Italian) to a Italian person back at my hotel…: “Where do all these beggars come from!!?”…He grunted and mumbled back ;”Mostly Australia.”

    And as for proof of refugee status..just the act of fleeing from all that is familiar ; family, friends, geography and culture..ease of movement, of slipping on familiar clothing, old shoes for a stroll down the street…Look about your desk there next to your computer…that stub of pencil or pad or paper to casually scribble a note down to remind you of something for later..gone, all the memories ..gone, no past to reflect upon save what you can conjure up in a troubled mind…uncertainty, bad food and health and strangers..all is gone all is enemy…all is a future lost unless one gains that elusive safe harbour and here we are in Australia, a land where we have made even the original occupiers refugees themselves in their own land ..refusing to recognise another in need of a home…

    Shame on us….shame on us.

  14. The Quincy Pact only protects the King of Arabia, not his heir

    Jamal Khashoggi was the grandson of the personal doctor of King Abdul Aziz. He was nephew of the arms dealer Adnan Khashoggi, who equipped the Saudi Air Force, and then, on behalf of the Pentagon, supplied Chiite Iran against Sunni Iraq. His aunt Samira Khashoggi is the mother of arms dealer Dodi Al-Fayed (eliminated with his companion, British Princess Lady Diana [5]).

    Jamal had been associated with the Palace coup that old Prince al-Waleed was preparing against MBS. Mercenaries cut off his fingers and dismembered him before presenting his head to MBS, their master. The operation was carefully recorded by the Turkish and US secret services.

    In Washington, the US Press and parliamentarians demanded that President Trump raise sanctions against Riyadh [6].

    One of MBS’s advisors, Turki Al-Dakhil, replied that if the US were to sanction the kingdom, Saudi Arabia would be ready to destabilise the world order [7]. In the tradition of the desert Bedouins, all insults must be avenged whatever the cost.

    According to Al-Dakhil, the kingdom was preparing some thirty measures, the most significant being to :
    – Reduce the production of oil to 7.5 million barrels per day, provoking a raise in prices of about 200 dollars per barrel. The kingdom would demand to be paid in other currencies than the dollar, which would bring about the end of US hegemony ;
    – Move away from Washington and move closer to Teheran ;
    – Buy arms from Russia and China. The kingdom would offer Russia a military base in Tabuk, in the North-East of the country, in other words, close to Syria, Israël, Lebanon and Iraq ;
    – Immediately begin supporting Hamas and Hezbollah.


  15. US warns Lebanon that Hezbollah Cabinet pick would cross ‘red line’

    The second critical question is how the United States might react if Hezbollah takes over the Health Ministry. Washington has ratcheted up pressure on Hezbollah in recent weeks with anti-Hezbollah measures by the Justice Department, the Treasury Department and the Senate. Despite the strong message the Trump administration officials are conveying, an overreaction from Washington might harm US interests in the long term. A total US boycott on assistance to Lebanon if a Hezbollah member led the Health Ministry seems unlikely, but the Trump administration might constrain this minister’s ability to perform his job.


  16. Belgian official: Israel steals organs of Palestinian kids

    A Belgian official’s remarks that Israel steals the organs of Palestinian children, whom it kills, have made headlines again after the news website which published them decided to stick to the story.

    Robrecht Vanderbeeken, the cultural secretary of Belgium’s ACOD trade union and a philosophy of science scholar, had made the comments back in August in a column published by Belgian website De Wereld Morgen.

    The population of the Gaza Strip is being “starved to death, poisoned, and children are kidnapped and murdered for their organs,” he wrote then.

    The website recently received a complaint by Belgian watchdog, the Interfederal Center for Equal Opportunities, over the story.

    De Wereld Morgen, however, stuck to the assertion that Israel “kidnapped” and “murdered” Palestinian children and used organs belonging to the Palestinians its forces killed.


  17. Part 18 (final): Pacific Northwest and the rest (Oregon, Washington, Alaska and Hawaii)

    In Washington and Hawaii, incumbent Democrats Maria Cantwell and Maizie Hirono will be easily re-elected.

    House of Representatives
    In Washington state the 8th district, which extends from suburban Seattle to the Cascade Mountains, is shaping up to be a tight race, especially with the retirement of incumbent Republican congressman Dave Reichert, the fivethrityeight polling average has republican Dino Rossi and Democrat Kim Schrier in a dead heat. In addition the 3rd District in the southern part of the state and the eastern 5th district could also be outside chances for Democratic gains. A surprising development is that Alaska’s at large congressional district could be competitive with polls showing incumbent Republican Congressman Don Young, who has been a congressman for 45 years, less than five percent ahead of his Democratic Challenger, Alyse Galvin. The remaining seats are all safe for their respective parties

    In Oregon, incumbent governor Kate Brown is likely to be reelected and in Hawaii incumbent governor David Ige is certain to be reelected.

    A few days ago the race for Governor of Alaska was turned on its head when incumbent independent governor Bill Walker dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democratic candidate former senator Mark Begich. Before Walker dropped out it looked like Republican candidate Mike Dunleavy would win due to Walker and Begich splitting the anti-republican vote but now the picture is a lot less clear.

    State Legislature
    Oregon House of Representatives (All 60 seats up for election): Democrats: 35 seats, Republicans: 25 seats. Republicans need to gain 6 seats to win control.
    Oregon State Senate (17 of 30 seats up for election): Democrats: 17 seats, Republicans: 13 seats. Republicans need to gain 3 seats to win control.

    Washington House of Representatives (All 98 seats up for election): Democrats: 50 seats, Republicans: 48 seats. Republicans need to gain 2 seats to win control.
    Washington State Senate (25 of 49 seats up for election): Democrats: 25 seats, Republicans: 23 seats, Democrats caucusing with the Republicans: 1 seat. Republicans need to gain 2 seats to win outright control, or 1 seat with the support of the caucusing Democrat.

    Alaska House of Representatives (All 40 seats up for election): Democrats: 17 seats, Republicans in coalition with the Democrats: 3 seats, Independents in coalition with the Democrats: 2 seats, non-coalition Republicans: 18 seats. non-coalition Republicans need to gain 3 seats to win control.
    Alaska State Senate (10 of 20 seats up for election): Republicans: 14 seats, Democrats: 5 seats, Democrats caucusing with the Republicans: 1 seat. Democrats need to gain 6 seats to win control.

    Hawaii House of Representatives (All 51 seats up for election): Democrats: 46 seats, Republicans: 5 seats. Not mathematically possible for Republicans to win control (need 21 seats but only running 14 candidates for Democratic-held seats).
    Hawaii State Senate (13 of 25 seats up for election): Democrats: 25 seats, Republicans: 0 seats. Not mathematically possible for Republicans to win control (need 13 seats but only running 5 candidates).

    Ballot Measures
    In Oregon there is a ballot measure that would repeal a law forbidding state resources from being used to apprehend persons violating federal immigration law, this measure is trailing in recent polls. Also on the ballot in Oregon is a measure that would prohibit public funds from being spent on abortions, this measure is also trailing in polls. While in Washington there is a measure that would implement restrictions on the purchase and ownership of firearms including raising the minimum age to own a firearm to 21 and implementing background checks, a recent poll has this measure leading by double digits.

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    And a reminder that the patrol will be resumed next Wednesday morning.

    The SMH editorial comes right to the point in saying that Barnaby Joyce is the Coalition’s disease,
    Michelle Grattan describes what a shambles this government is.
    David Wroe outlines how Morrison’s desperate brain farts on the Israel embassy and the Iran nuclear deal unfolded, much to the surprise of many senior bureaucrats and ministers.
    It doesn’t stop there either. Nicole Hasham tells us how the Morrison government failed to consult Australia’s competition chief Rod Sims about a radical proposal to forcibly break up big power companies that refuse to stop electricity price gouging, leaving the respected official to “read about it in the newspaper”.
    Analysing Scott Morrison’s Twitter activity sheds some light on his ineptitude as our country’s leader, writes Belinda Jones. She says the king of spin is unravelling.
    The AFR’s Mark Ludlow reports that Victoria and Queensland won’t commit to anything at today’s energy minister’s meeting, dashing Angus Taylor’s hopes of signing the states up to a reliability mechanism for the National Electricity Market.
    Dave Donovan asks. “After the ATM Government’s crushing defeat in Wentworth, where to now for the Liberal Party and its propaganda arm, the Murdoch media?”
    Phil Coorey says that Malcolm Turnbull is now in a critical window in which he will define his legacy. Write a book and move on like Julia Gillard or stay angry like Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott.
    The Australian Securities and Investments Commission confirmed it will investigate Assistant Treasurer Stuart Robert’s directorship of a controversial health supplements company. How long can Morrison hang on to this grub?
    Stephen Bartholomeusz explains what is behind the fall in the US stock market.
    Why Wall Street’s tumble is bad news for Trump.
    And Alex Moffatt tells us what Australian investors can learn from overseas.
    David Crowe reports on how politicians at last are realising that they can’t ignore what’s been going on in Nauru forever.
    On this subject Waleed Aly writes that our Parliament is not debating a bill of grave importance as some crucial pre-requisite to ending the tragedy of Nauru. It is engaged in an exercise of political vanity; an attempt to do away with a crisis that was always inevitable, while preserving the politics that created it.
    In an interesting contribution environmental science professor Richard Kingsford explains how Barnaby Joyce and Andrew Forrest have got it wrong on the drought.
    Fergus Hunter reports that the government will pour $3.9 billion into a new fund to mitigate the devastating impacts of drought, in a major pitch to struggling regional communities.
    Meanwhile Nick McKenzie reveals that the Nationals’ federal treasurer Peter Schwarz is accused of gouging much of the $850,000 he was paid by Australia’s largest drought-proofing project and calling in favours when pressed to account for the taxpayer cash.
    Katharine Murphy caught up with Craig Laundy for an interesting insight into his time as an MP.
    Latika Bourke tells us about how Tony Abbott is being lauded by Brexit supporters and told to butt out by Remainers after the former prime minister savaged Theresa May’s Brexit plan and urged her to pull Britain out of the EU with no deal.
    A dispute between the Commonwealth and the states and territories over health funding has reached critical mass, after the Federal Government refused to reverse a recalculation that will claw back more than $600 million allocated to hospitals and health services over the past financial year. Dana McCauley reports on what will lead to a big stoush with the states,
    More than four million people living in the outer reaches of our largest cities are not within walking distance of a reliable train or bus ­service, a damning audit of public transport has found.
    Police in New York City have removed a suspicious package sent to a building owned by actor Robert De Niro.
    Matthew Knott explains how these pipe bombs have prompted a wave of concern about whether the increasingly vitriolic nature of US political debate – including contributions by President Trump – is encouraging violence ahead of the November 6 midterm elections. It’s an increasingly divided nation.
    Jill Abramson says that the worst aspect of the US attempted bombings is the air of their inevitability. She says Trump’s reckless rhetoric towards opponents has helped stoke this hideously violent time in politics.
    Under President Michael Kroger, the Victorian Liberal Party has engaged in epic internal and external fights that have left party activists sceptical of winning the November 24 state election.
    Going to her own childhood experiences of abuse Wendy Squires gives some good advice.
    Beijing has been infuriated by recent US sanctions on its military, one of a growing number of flashpoints in ties with Washington that include a bitter trade war, Taiwan and China’s increasingly muscular military posture in the South China Sea.
    More from Stephen Bartholomeusz as he explains how AMP’s 19th century businesses have been operating in an environment that is structurally challenged. Mike Wilkins and David Murray have finally come up with a structural solution, a complete exit from its wealth protection and mature businesses in Australasia.
    AMP shares have posted their biggest one-day fall ever as a powerful share market rout and fallout from the Hayne royal commission collided with its decision to sell its life business.
    Jennifer Hewett writes that the damage to one of Australia’s most prominent financial institutions reflects the instant and massive cost these days of tarnished reputation.
    Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chairman Wayne Byres has revealed that his new deputy John Lonsdale has been charged with conducting a review of APRA’s enforcement policies, such as utilising court-based sanctions.
    Gareth Hutchens tells us that Labor has identified one of the biggest blind spots of the banking royal commission as being its lack of interrogation of the way banks are using the legal system to crush customers.
    Van Badham writes that the government is desperate as protesting workers have public opinion behind them.
    The federal government has scrapped a policy to review the medical condition of 90,000 people on the disability support pension (DSP) after less than 2% people were found to be ineligible. The program announce in the last budget has proven to be a complete flop.
    Michaela Whitbourn reports on yesterday’s proceedings in the Geoffrey Rush court case.
    Right now in a clutch of Australian supermarkets, their locations under wraps, a “hush, hush” plan is underway that could eliminate the temptation to indulge in a sly bit of self-serve checkout theft forever.
    Harold Mitchell is disgusted that we don’t care enough about climate change.
    While the science behind climate change may be difficult for the average person to comprehend, it shouldn’t be so for our political leaders, writes John Lord.
    John Elder advises us to forget any hopes of drought-breaking rain over summer. The only good news for the large areas of NSW in drought is that there isn’t much left to burn once the fires start.
    How Trump has encouraged assassination attempts.
    Matthew Knott writes on how Trump has played the victim after were sent to political foes.
    In a South Australian legal first, a senior bikie gang member has been jailed indefinitely for refusing to answer six questions at an Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission coercive hearing.
    Clive Palmer has sent out a clearly misleading political flyer, inferring he has three former prime ministers in his new party’s ranks. I think he needs some psychiatric help.
    Esther Han reports that an administrative bungle by Transport for NSW has exacerbated fears among disability groups that essential over-the-phone services will be taken away from those most in need.
    Ruth William writes that Myer directors have taken a pay cut and will be pushed to buy up shares in the troubled department store operator, as the company tries to stave off a second shareholder strike on pay and with it, a potential board spill. What a mess that company is!
    Shane Warne says leg-spin sensation Lloyd Pope and Travis Head’s gritty batting are the lights on the hill in Australia’s darkest period since its 1980s nadir. He is livid with the nation’s cricket hierarchy for the parlous state of Australia’s batting which has unravelled against Pakistan in the United Arab Emirates.
    Kate McClymont with some nominations for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    Although this mongrel could take it out . . .

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe on the pipe bombs in the US.

    Mark David has a shot at Imelda Bishop.

    Paul Zanetti and Turnbull’s travel allowance.

    Arms trading.

    Sean Leahy on Wayne Bennett’s appointment to coach the South Sydney Rabbitohs.

    A classic from David Pope on the government’s attempts on energy policy.
    Jon Kudelka sees Fraser Anning off.
    More in here.

  19. Clive Palmer’s flyer –

    It wasn’t just distributed to “some Queensland residents”. I found one in my junk mail earlier this week so they would have been delivered throughout this area. I didn’t take any notice of it so I just retrieved it and had look. It contains the same daft claim.

    The thing is hard to miss – a glossy A4 paper in bright yellow and black, folded into three so the first thing you see is “An important message about Australia’s drought” printed in yellow capital letters on a black background. The message is all about saving Australia from drought. How Clive plans to do this is not explained. Is he going to make it rain? Should he contact Turnbull’s old rainmaker mate?

    I would think today’s announcement from the government about $3,9 billion going into a drought fund will destroy Clive’s only policy.

    Clive is also after members. Those who are braindead can follow instructions – if they can read – and go to the party’s website to sign up and offer themselves for “public service”. Clive seems desperate for nutters to volunteer to be candidates.

    He makes other suspicious claims. He says his party has the support of over 5,000 people who have the resources and will to make a change in Canberra. Very ambiguous. Is he claiming 5,000 rich people belong to his party?

    The flyer is now back in the recycling box with the rest of the unwanted junk mail and empty catfood tins. Next stop – the recycling bin. That bin has a bright yellow lid. How appropriate! The yellow bin for the yellow junk.

  20. New article coming..: “The Tradesmen’s Return”…watch this space!

    “. . .The trade/working class representative unions, coupled with the true “On the Land” farmers and producers..along with engineering and scientific research bodies can lift the nation out of the greedy clutches of an anachronistic strangulation of the conservative oligarchs of the upper-middle classes. . .”

  21. The assistant treasurer, Stuart Robert, joined a business selling cryotherapy with a man who had just been convicted of raping an adult dancer, documents show.

    Robert, who is now facing scandals on multiple fronts, became a director of alternative health firm Cryo Australia in mid-August, but left two and a half weeks later, shortly after his appointment to the newly-formed Morrison ministry.

    The franchise business was set up in 2016 by founder and director Neranjan Agrajith Kalubuth De Silva, 31, who marketed cold air cryotherapy to treat a range of ailments, including fatigue, sore muscles, “dull” skin, cellulite, and acne.

    At the time Robert joined the firm, De Silva was before Queensland’s highest court appealing against a rape conviction, Guardian Australia can reveal.


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