Author: Kirsdarke

Australian Election Day 2025

Kirsdarke election night, Featured Posts, Friday night, Political Observation , , ,

Finally it’s here, the day of the Australian Federal Election, 3 May 2025.

Polling has the Two-Party Preferred vote at roughly 52-48 to 53-47 to Labor, with primary votes for both Labor and the Coalition being in the mid-30’s, the Greens vote between 12-15%, One Nation being around 7-8%, and a large Other vote to fill the rest.

Feel free to post predictions, events that take place today, speculations, observations once the votes are counted, all are welcome.

There’s a high chance that things won’t be decided tomorrow night, there’s a lot of things up in the air, especially the Senate, but hopefully over the next few days they’ll be sorted out and determined for sure, and hopefully will result in a government that’s beneficial to Australia.

2025 Australian and Canadian Federal Elections

Kirsdarke election night, Featured Posts, Political Observation ,

As promised, now that the Election has been called for the 3rd of May, the Federal campaign has officially started in Australia, so here is the thread to discuss it.

Currently, polling indicates things are roughly 51-49 either way, with a minority government most likely, given the size of the crossbench makes it unlikely either Labor or the Coalition will reach the 76 seats needed to form a majority government. Of course there is an outside possibility that it could happen, but we’ll have to see how things pan out over the next 5 weeks.

Incidentally, in that same week is the Canadian election that will take place on 28 April, where the incumbent Liberal party is seeking a fourth term under its new leader Mark Carney, and their main opposition is the Conservative party under Pierre Pollievre. Polling over there has seen a dramatic turnaround over the past 2 months, where the Liberals had been trailing the Conservatives by over 20 points in December, and they now are in the lead in most polls.

Probably the biggest issue for both Commonwealth nations in our elections is the “situation” (or “binfire”, depending on what you want to call it) in the USA under the Trump administration looming large over us.

Lots of things are going to happen between now and polling day. Debates, polls, Easter, talking heads news analysis, the usual talk is welcome here.

2025 Western Australian State Election

Kirsdarke Uncategorized , ,

On Saturday 8 March, Western Australia goes to the polls for its state election. The Labor government under Premier Roger Cook will contest against the Leader of the Opposition, Shane Love of the National Party, and also Libby Mettam of the Liberal Party (yes, the Liberals went so badly last time that they won less seats than the Nationals).

Significantly, Labor’s victory at the previous election in 2021 was so strong that they were able to reform the Legislative Council to remove the malapportionment that benefitted the Nationals for so long, so that the whole state will vote to elect 37 Upper House members, as opposed to the previous system where MLC’s were elected to malapportioned regions that made votes outside of Perth more valuable than those within it.

The last polls before the day have Labor leading over the Coalition by 57-43. A significant swing from their 69-31 result last time, but probably not a result they would be unhappy with.

Of course, this is an open thread so other subjects that arise over the next few weeks are welcome to be discussed about.