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NEW HIGHLY SCIENTIFIC POLL MACHINE ADDED TO THE SIDEBAR.
WONDER WHO WILL WIN.
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There’s been a lot of carping on lately about Swan’s”broken promise” on the matter of the Surplus.
But after it’s acknowledged that the promise was broken – HAD to be broken in Swan’s estimation, and that of most of the public, plus most professional economists – what next?
Where does the finger pointing get us? What economic flaw does it fix? None, as far as I can see. It’s a cheap shot, a heckle, pretty obvious and unproductive.
Swan needed to promise a Surplus to give the nation some hope, to try to balance the dimwitted negativity of the Opposition, their business and political allies.
He needed to put Hope supported by cautious optimism on the table, as a counter to the trash talking that has been going on.
And until very recently it looked to be a good bet, until it became clear that for every dollar cut from the Federal Budget, the Commonwealth might lose more than that dollar in revenue.
I am still amazed that newspapers and TV dare to criticise the government’s performance when their own is so woeful. But there you go. Apparently THEY are the experts.
Everywhere I go I see businesses struggling. Many of the proprietors I talk to see little connection between their firm’s performance and the way the economy is being talked down by the right of politics.
This is one piece of political cynicism that can’t be pinned on the government. No “both sides do it” here at all. Why would Labor trash-talk their own economy? It’s the Liberals who are guilty this time, no doubt about it. But why do they do it?
A confident economy is prepared to take risks, to make bolder investment decisions than one which hides with its money under the bed. Why would what Katharine Murphy calls the “putative Prime Minister” want to destroy an economy? In order to save it?
The press buys the “Broken Promise” meme to a certain extent (although its bleating hasn’t been half as bad as it might have been). But what does pointing out Swan’s abandonment of further cuts accomplish?
Nothing.
It’s a simple dummy-spit, an “I told you so.” But so what? He tried, he failed despite giving it a good go. In any case the Budget will be much closer toward being balanced than if Swan had done nothing at all. Not even the Coalition is promising a river of Surpluses now… I think that’s the latest message.
Is whingeing and heckling about “broken promises” going to reconstruct the economy, boost confidence, create employment? Of course not. If it has any effect it can only make things worse by further eroding confidence.
However, the public – after spending two years weeping and gnashing their teeth, condemning the BER and other stimulus programs, bawling that “She lied!” – paradoxically WANTS more stimulus. They are clamoring for an end to the cuts and a resumption of the gravy train.
While it’s not clear that Swan will oblige 100%, and end to looking for savings is a good start.
If anything, Swan’s failure wasn’t mistakenly promising a surplus, but was his inability (admittedly with the cards stacked against him by a bitter media) to convince the public that they were being duped by Abbott’s short term strategy turned long-term economic trench warfare.
Ironically they’re punishing Abbott personally for his negativism on the economy and then punishing his political opponents for not being able to surmount that negativism. In punishing both sides of politics, the public can once again avoid examining whether they, themselves, are not their OWN worst enemies.
Of course the harpies and moaners only do this because they can. Things aren’t THAT bad, in fact things are pretty good. If we were in a real pickle, we’d not be able to afford to complain. We’d be too busy suffering for real. It’s the ultimate irony of this situation, if you will, like a North Shore matron complaining she couldn’t get an appointment for her poodle’s haircut.
Business has become used to the idea that if they take a temporary hit in trading conditions, with the payoff being a reuturn of the Liberal government, then it’s worth the sacrifice.
The only problem is that this was all supposed to have happened by mid 2011.
Any number of things could have brought it about – a successful Convoy protest swelling into a national movement, a No Confidence vote on the floor of the house, the death or incapacitation of a Labor member in a marginal seat, a scandal that caused someone to be convicted of a crime that disbarred them from holding a seat, a defection of the Independents (in particular Wilkie) and (I’m sure) you all have your own favourite method by which Abbott was going to move from Sydney’s Northern beaches to Kirribilli.
None of these happened. The most plausible was death or incapacity, but so far no go. The rest showed just how inept and in the thrall of their own publicity were the Coalition and their supporters. They really thought they could pull it off! Instead they’ve talked themselves into a near-recession.
They didn’t succeed, and the short term tactic where business would take it on the chin for a brief period has become a war of attrition, fought by the same means, but damaging only to themselves. They’re wrecking their own businesses and cheering themselves on for doing it!
“Home by Christmas {2010}” has become a sick joke, except that by now it’s doing real harm.
Crazy, I know, and hard to fathom, but look at what the Tea Party are foisting on the American public. Things can get a lot crazier before they get better. At least we don’t have too many guns here, yet.
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Forum posts will be every few days, but we don’t kid outselves that the PB Tragics will stick strictly (or even loosely) to the topic at hand, so don’t get yourselves into paroxysyms of grief if – or when – you stray from the OP’s subject matter.
The basic rules are the same as William’s benign autocracy with one exception. Trolls will be dealt with severely, and banned sooner than William might have done so. One warning only. But as this is just a casually moderated blog for the Xmas season, don’t expect instant gratification if you feel offended.
We’re into free speech here, and anything that interferes with that Free Speech will be excised from the blog permanemtly.
Apart from that you can say what you like within the usual norms of civil discourse and avoidance of slander.