As promised, now that the Election has been called for the 3rd of May, the Federal campaign has officially started in Australia, so here is the thread to discuss it.
Currently, polling indicates things are roughly 51-49 either way, with a minority government most likely, given the size of the crossbench makes it unlikely either Labor or the Coalition will reach the 76 seats needed to form a majority government. Of course there is an outside possibility that it could happen, but we’ll have to see how things pan out over the next 5 weeks.
Incidentally, in that same week is the Canadian election that will take place on 28 April, where the incumbent Liberal party is seeking a fourth term under its new leader Mark Carney, and their main opposition is the Conservative party under Pierre Pollievre. Polling over there has seen a dramatic turnaround over the past 2 months, where the Liberals had been trailing the Conservatives by over 20 points in December, and they now are in the lead in most polls.
Probably the biggest issue for both Commonwealth nations in our elections is the “situation” (or “binfire”, depending on what you want to call it) in the USA under the Trump administration looming large over us.
Lots of things are going to happen between now and polling day. Debates, polls, Easter, talking heads news analysis, the usual talk is welcome here.