2025 Australian and Canadian Federal Elections

Kirsdarke election night, Featured Posts, Political Observation,

As promised, now that the Election has been called for the 3rd of May, the Federal campaign has officially started in Australia, so here is the thread to discuss it.

Currently, polling indicates things are roughly 51-49 either way, with a minority government most likely, given the size of the crossbench makes it unlikely either Labor or the Coalition will reach the 76 seats needed to form a majority government. Of course there is an outside possibility that it could happen, but we’ll have to see how things pan out over the next 5 weeks.

Incidentally, in that same week is the Canadian election that will take place on 28 April, where the incumbent Liberal party is seeking a fourth term under its new leader Mark Carney, and their main opposition is the Conservative party under Pierre Pollievre. Polling over there has seen a dramatic turnaround over the past 2 months, where the Liberals had been trailing the Conservatives by over 20 points in December, and they now are in the lead in most polls.

Probably the biggest issue for both Commonwealth nations in our elections is the “situation” (or “binfire”, depending on what you want to call it) in the USA under the Trump administration looming large over us.

Lots of things are going to happen between now and polling day. Debates, polls, Easter, talking heads news analysis, the usual talk is welcome here.

502 thoughts on “2025 Australian and Canadian Federal Elections”

  1. No more tv for me until after the election. The ever dire political ads have been wall to wall. The current gold medal contender is Foxtel with 6!!!!!!! in a row.

    • Well, at least from today it’s an election ad blackout on TV, so you’ll be safe from them on that.

      Unfortunately not on social media like facebook, twitter and youtube.

  3. For no reason at all. I was watching an episode of Morse last night (Deceived by flight). It had a version of this on it

    Mamiya later became a well-known teacher, but while he was studying under a master, he was asked to explain the sound of one hand clapping.

    Although Mamiya worked hard at it, his master said to him one day, “You are not working hard enough. You are too attached to food, wealth, things, and that sound. It would be better if you died.”

    The next time Mamiya came before the master, he was again asked what he had to show regarding the sound of one hand clapping. Mamiya at once fell over as if he were dead.

    “You are dead all right,” said the master, “but how about that sound?”

    Looking up Mamiya replied, “Oh, I haven’t solved that one yet.”

    “What?” roared the master, “Dead men don’t speak. Get out!”

    I can’t quite work out whether it’s funny, clever or what.

    That article (https://oshoworld.com/no-water-no-moon-04/) also contains this which I thought interesting

    There is a whole school in the West which proves that all of religion is nonsense. And I am a religious man, and I say they are right – for the wrong reasons they are right. They think that if you prove that religion is nonsense, that you have discounted religion, refuted it. No!
    Religious men have always been saying, “We are absurd! We belong not to the world which is of sense, we belong to something which is beyond.” And the beyond is bound to be nonsense. What sense can you make out of religion? If you can make any sense out of religion, you have missed. Then you are in the world of theology, philosophy, systems, but you can never touch that purity which is always beyond reason.

  4. Kirsdarke
    May 1, 2025 at 8:54 PM

    THANK YOU !! That will explain the blitz. Gotta blow that advertising budget 🙂 They should look into how much people are put off by political ads. They seem universally awful and I for one start gnashing teeth after seeing one eleventy times and feeling like that does NOT endear the political party to me.

  5. Final Freshwater fed poll TPP: ALP 51.5 L/NP 48.5 Primaries: ALP 33 L/NP 37 GRN 12 OTH 18 (includes ON 8) http://www.afr.com/politics/fed... ($) #auspol #ausvotes

    — Leroy (@leroylynch.bsky.social) 2025-05-01T11:43:56.314Z

    Freshwater was 50-50 last time, so its a move back to the govt.

    Final Freshwater fed poll – policy questions #auspol #ausvotes

    — Leroy (@leroylynch.bsky.social) 2025-05-01T11:47:28.437Z

    Wait, Benson Saulo cancelled Labor membership in June 2015 (The Age, below) AND also ran for Greens preselection in 2015?! (according to ABC news article)Whut! #Macnamara #AusVotes25

    — Yung En Chee (@yungenchee.bsky.social) 2025-05-01T08:20:40.559Z

    Like a Hockey budget. James Paterson to use voluntary redundancies to reduce Canberran public servants but Jane Hume rules it out. Hume counts 41k to go from 110k through natural attrition. However, there's only 70k excluding military personnel. #ausvotes http://www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

    — David Marler (@qldaah.bsky.social) 2025-05-01T10:39:00.901Z

    Dutton's Liberal Party – meaningless policy, shouted loudly, doing nothing, but costing more.Don't know how many of you are into physics, but it's like a Minkowski political space – if you zoom in far enough, there's no gravity.www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05…

    — Possum (@pollytics.bsky.social) 2025-05-01T05:54:19.203Z

    Western commentary on China's economy is usually rank nonsense, which is why what you read today so regularly has no relationship with what ends up happening sometimes just weeks or even days later. This is a really good overview of what it actually is today http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPii...

    — Possum (@pollytics.bsky.social) 2025-05-01T02:25:12.674Z

  6. The Rupertariat’s Flagship going all out as SS Dutton sinks beneath the waves. A selection of front page headlines.

    EXCLUSIVE An hour ago
    Albanese, Wong dine with CCP friends

    EXCLUSIVE
    Labor minister and Hubei chief in photos

    PM’s campaign of deception a masterclass in mediocrity

    Election 2025
    Albanese’s ‘economist’ credentials come under fire

    Just for fun a toon from Fairfax

  7. Friday and Teh Australian Commentary Section’s ‘Theme of the Day. Amazing how the writers miraculously came up with such a similar theme 😆

    A second-rate elite is torching our nation’s prosperity

    Policy prowess? Both major parties deserve the wooden spoon

    We’re becoming a nation that can’t do things anymore

  8. More words of wisdom from the shadow Tea Lady

    Shadow finance minister Jane Hume was asked on ABC News Breakfast a little earlier about whether she sees shadow treasurer Angus Taylor as a future leader of the party?

    Hume says it’s “too early” to have those conversations.

    You do not read the entrails until you have gutted the chicken. We will be working for every vote up until 6:00 on election day.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/may/02/australia-election-2025-live-last-day-campaign-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-labor-coalition-poll-voting-ntwnfb#top-of-blog

    • When the electoral chicken is as severely prolapsed as this one you do nae need to gut it.

  9. I saw the headline and thought it was satirie. NOPE ,it really happened. These cartoonists were from msm papers not the bloody Die Sturmer. but welcome to Ingurland 2025.

    Licence to Offend exhibition cancelled in case it … causes offence

    An exhibition of work by political cartoonists including The Times’s Morten Morland has been cancelled because of fears it could cause offence.

    Hours before a private viewing on Wednesday, organisers of Licence to Offend told guests not to go after a last-minute decision by the venue, the TownSq co-working space in Kingston upon Thames, southwest London.

    The decision to pull the exhibition was criticised as “idiotic” by Morland, who started working for The Times in 2002.

    His work had been hung in the venue on Saturday alongside previously published cartoons from Mac and Pugh of the Mail titles, Patrick Blower of The Daily Telegraph and Martin Rowson of The Guardian.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/media/article/licence-to-offend-exhibition-cancelled-77c8nwk2f

  10. Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor has suggested an elected Coalition government would relocate public servants from Canberra to regional areas to meet their attrition targets.

    Just Another Policy. SNAFU.

    Remember Beetroot’s APVMA relocation? That went down a treat: they couldn’t find anyone who wanted to relocate.

  11. Jane Hume says it’s too early to discuss replacing Peter Dutton as ‘you do not read the entrails until you have gutted the chicken’

    Journos leave and…………………………….

    /

  13. The Coalition Clown Car continues careening across the land. As Grouch Marx could have said “These are our <strike> principals </strike> policies and If you don’t like them well I have others. “

    Just a day out from the federal election, the Coalition has again amended its policy on cutting the public service, raising the prospect of staff being “migrated” across the country t

  14. Peter Dutton is speaking to reporters in Perth, in the seat of Tangey, which the Liberals lost at the last election.

    And reminding the voters of his wit and charm will ensure they do so again . He’s too close for comfort tho, I’m in the neighboring electorate. As it’s the Fremantle electorate even Dutto knows it is pointless him going there 😆

    In his continuing effort to lose votes here Dutto has come out with this promise.

    Dutton promises to visit WA at least ten times a year if he becomes prime minister

  15. A leitmotif of the Coalition rabble’s campaign. This sort of yes/no has happened seemingly every day on about every policy.. Those Coalition pollies are so advanced they have started using quantum physics to run their campaigns. Well, either quantum physics or applied bullshit artistry.

    Quantum superposition is the ability of a quantum system to act as if it is in multiple states at the same time until it is measured.

    Dutton ‘clear’ about stance on Paris climate agreement

    Dutton says there has been “no change” to the Coalition’s policy, to commit to the Paris climate agreement.

    …………… just hours after (Ted O’Brien) left the door open to leaving, during a national press club debate with energy minister Chris Bowen.

    –

    The Australian said: “We owe our allegiance to no party 

    But wait there’s more. the larfs keep a comin’

    In a surprise addition to the newspaper election editorials, Sky News Australia host Sharri Markson raised her self-importance to new levels with her very own editorial. “Sharri Markson officially endorses Peter Dutton to be prime minister.” Officially…………….“Not out of partisanship – but out of necessity.

  18. Hard to know where to start

    [Peter] Dutton wrote on X, formerly Twitter:

    A message from Kirilly Dutton:

    Above all else, Peter is a listener. Whether he is with family, friends, residents in Dickson, or the many Australians he meets as a parliamentarian, he is attentive and curious.

    He isn’t one of those politicians who speaks over people or tells people how it is. He asks questions. He wants to hear other people’s stories and perspectives. And that’s what makes him attuned to the views and values of everyday Australians.

    He started and ran a successful business. He has been an assistant treasurer. He knows what makes the economy tick. He has been part of Coalition governments that have cleaned up the economic mess they have inherited. And he will do it again.

    …

    Peter has held some of the toughest jobs in government as Home Affairs and Defence Minister.

    He has made difficult but necessary decisions in our nation’s best interests.

    Australians respect his strength of character. They know he is man who can bring certainty for our country amidst uncertain times. And while he is firm, he is fair and compassionate too.

    From his time as a police officer through to today, he is driven by a desire to protect others and a clear sense of morality. He knows there is right and wrong, and good and evil, in the world.

    Despite his roles and workload, he has always been a wonderful husband and a dedicated and present father to his children.

    He has always prioritised time with myself and the kids and has endless time for his extended family – especially his nieces and nephews.

    Peter is the prime minister we need for our times.

    • Let’s start with: “I think it would be a good idea to get a public reference from my wife.”

      Then, that is a man who doesn’t do nuance. Not a good trait in a politician.

  19. Third DemosAU poll of the week! ALP 31 L-NP 33 Green 12 ON 9 IND 7 TOP 2 FF 2 LCP 1 LTN 1 others 22PP 52-48 to ALP.

    — Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham.bsky.social) 2025-05-02T05:28:58.187Z

    Red time in the final quarter, but we have a new winner http://www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

    — Ben Eltham (@beneltham.bsky.social) 2025-05-02T05:19:53.658Z

    The original Kooyong independent. Tim Ferguson from the Doug Anthony All Stars ran against Andrew Peacock in 1990. His key policy was to make Vegemite jars easier to open #ausvotes #auspol

    — ozkitsch (@ozkitsch.bsky.social) 2025-05-02T04:02:17.658Z

    https://australianpolitics.com/elections/federal-1990/

  21. Final #Newspoll Federal poll TPP: ALP 52.5 (+0.5) L/NP 47 (-0.5) Primary: ALP 33 (-1) L/NP 34 (-1) GRN 13 (+2) ON 8 (0) OTH 12 (0) http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/polit... ($) #ausvotes #auspol 28 April – 1 May, 1270 voters

    — Leroy (@leroylynch.bsky.social) 2025-05-02T09:08:51.017Z

    Preferred PM: Albanese 51 (0) Dutton 35 (0)
    Albanese: Approve 42 (-1) Disapprove 52 (0)
    Dutton: Approve 32 (-3) Disapprove 60 (+1)

    Alright, here we go: the index to my reviews of Australia's weird and wonderful political parties. I have reviewed every party contesting the Senate except for the Greens, Labor, and Coalition parties, plus a few other unregistered parties and indies. I hope you find it interesting and amusing:

    — André Brett (@drdrehistorian.bsky.social) 2025-05-01T08:56:46.097Z

    I did not expect the below!

    Julian Assange’s statement referring to Prime Minister Albanese’s role in his release and providing insight into the behaviour of Australian prime ministers and their governments, past and current.

    — Julian Wigley (@julianwigley.bsky.social) 2025-05-02T03:48:46.993Z

    Final Roy Morgan poll TPP: ALP 53 L/NP 47 http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/alp... #auspol #ausvotes

    — Leroy (@leroylynch.bsky.social) 2025-05-02T09:45:53.930Z

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