2025 Australian and Canadian Federal Elections

Kirsdarke election night, Featured Posts, Political Observation,

As promised, now that the Election has been called for the 3rd of May, the Federal campaign has officially started in Australia, so here is the thread to discuss it.

Currently, polling indicates things are roughly 51-49 either way, with a minority government most likely, given the size of the crossbench makes it unlikely either Labor or the Coalition will reach the 76 seats needed to form a majority government. Of course there is an outside possibility that it could happen, but we’ll have to see how things pan out over the next 5 weeks.

Incidentally, in that same week is the Canadian election that will take place on 28 April, where the incumbent Liberal party is seeking a fourth term under its new leader Mark Carney, and their main opposition is the Conservative party under Pierre Pollievre. Polling over there has seen a dramatic turnaround over the past 2 months, where the Liberals had been trailing the Conservatives by over 20 points in December, and they now are in the lead in most polls.

Probably the biggest issue for both Commonwealth nations in our elections is the “situation” (or “binfire”, depending on what you want to call it) in the USA under the Trump administration looming large over us.

Lots of things are going to happen between now and polling day. Debates, polls, Easter, talking heads news analysis, the usual talk is welcome here.

502 thoughts on “2025 Australian and Canadian Federal Elections”

  1. Anyone getting the feeling that this is not a good week for Il Dutto?

    The media campaign bus following Peter Dutton wedged and stuck on a median strip in Sydney. Photograph: Josh Butler/The GuardianShare

  2. It may have been deliberate. They crashed the bus rather than having to watch another Dutto appearance.

  3. It has indeed been dismal.

    Watching the election from afar, I can’t help but wonder – is this really the best Australia can do?
    Hugh Riminton
    With neither leader offering any serious structural reform, Australia is on a path that leads ultimately to the malaise that has befallen the US

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/25/australia-federal-election-dismal-choice

    However, as ever, a journo writing on this topic fails to mention they and their comrades’ culpability. As this reply points out.

    Guardian Pick
    The last 2 times genuine reform was offered, Shorten and Hewston, they were defeated by negativity and a lame media that let lies go unchallenged.

  4. Peter Dutton, who some journalists have made the point has been more available in answering questions this campaign, compared to Anthony Albanese (he hasn’t been, he’s just better at deflecting) is now not answering questions he finds uncomfortable (something he has been doing all campaign, but there are just more of them now)

    https://live.australiainstitute.org.au

    Amy is covering the election, in her usual style.

  5. TLBD

    It would but “these days” even doing that seems to have become a bit of a bridge too far. Perhaps we’ll have to wait until sufficient diminishment of fear of the “Wrath of Rupert”.

  8. Speaking of the presstitutes. I just remembered probably the best LOL they’ve given me. In the wash up of the ‘Booting of the Morrison’ election I saw a panel on Sky. It was a ‘must see’ group of their most rabid. It was truly 24k gold . For the best part of half an hour I was regaled with people explaining that the Coalition loss was due to their ‘lurch to the left’ . Yep, Scotty blew it by being too much of a trendy left and that they should have gone much further right. The words ‘radical’ and ‘socialist’ were used. 😆

    I knew many of the Rupertarium inmates were living on another planet but until then I had not realized it was on another planet in another solar system. 🙂

  9. Did the Grauniad photograph a ‘crime’ ? I’m not sure of the laws in that State but surely poking your car on to any of the painted area of a pedestrian crossing would be a no no ?

    Anthony Albanese and the Labor candidate in Banks, Zhi Soon, at a pre-poll booth in Padstow, Sydney. Photograph: Dan Jervis-Bardy/The Guardian

  14. Exclusive Brethren don’t vote but are secretly campaigning for the Coalition

    Fasirfax forgot to add the words ‘Yet Again’ at the end of the headline. This ‘revelation’ has popping up since at least the days of The Rodent.

    Albo has long been on to it.

    ALBANESE: The Prime Minister has had yet another secret meeting with the Exclusive Brethren sect. This is an organisation that is currently under investigation for donating $370,000 for the Liberal Party election campaigning in 2004.

    In particular, this group campaigned in the electorate of Bennelong. They took out full page advertisements in the local paper ‘The Weekly Times’. The address used for the authoriser of those ads is actually one of the Exclusive Brethren schools.

    https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/transcript-of-doorstop-liberal-party-and-the-exclusive-brethren-turnbull

    Out of nowhere in 2004, an obscure religious sect burst onto the political stage in Australia. Almost unheard of until then, the Exclusive Brethren was suddenly spending up big in election advertising in support of conservative political parties. But its members were shy to the point of paranoia about who they were — preferring, as they said, to ‘fly under the radar’. Brethren members assiduously lobbied politicians, but did not vote. And they were very close to the-then prime minister John Howard.

    https://scribepublications.com.au/books-authors/books/behind-the-exclusive-brethren-9781921640230

    News.com.au
    https://www.news.com.au › National › Breaking-news
    24 May 2007 — AUSTRALIAN Federal Police could investigate claims the Exclusive Brethren heavily spent on advertising in support of Prime Minister John Howard

  16. The reporter pushes back asking specifically why One Nation is being preferenced.

    But Dutton is trying hard to control the press pack today and says he’ll only take one question each from reporters, and goes to the next question.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/apr/29/australia-election-2025-live-peter-dutton-anthony-albanese-campaign-polls-economy-costing-credit-labor-coalition-ntwnfb#top-of-blog

    The Dud is carrying a lot of baggage and the journos aren’t helping.

    • I just looked at the ‘live report’ in the Grauniad. I think the press piranhas can smell blood in the water as Dutto is ‘drowning not waving’.

    • Yup

      Analysis: Dutton cuts press conference short

      Josh Butler

      Going back to Peter Dutton’s press conference – that was one of the shortest media appearances he’s given on the campaign, barely getting beyond 15 minutes (including the opening preamble from himself and the local Liberal candidate) and only taking a small number of questions.

      He appeared strongly on the defensive today, and wouldn’t repeat criticisms he’s made in recent days about the media, particularly the travelling pack of journalists following his campaign, who he last night called “so biased” and “activists” on Sky News.

      Dutton has recently been giving all, or nearly all, journalists a question each day at his press conferences, most recently going around in a circle so everyone gets a turn (and to avoid journos shouting over each other). But today he took only a handful of questions, skipping over a number of journalists, in a way he normally doesn’t.

      He said at several points that he was on a tight schedule – “we’re going to do one each today because we’re up against the clock,” he claimed early on.

      But after skipping a few journalists, Dutton was asked why he wasn’t giving everyone a shot at questioning him today.

      “Why have we been skipped over?” one journalist asked.

      “Well, we’re going to go this way,” he replied.

      Dutton was asked about his Sky comments in the last question he took before cutting the press conference short.

      He didn’t directly answer, saying he believed voters were not focused on the “feelings” of any of the press pack. When pressed on whether it was just a convenient excuse to blame the media, and if he thought anyone in the press conference was biased, Dutton wrapped the press conference and walked off after about a dozen questions.

  19. I will be handing out HTV cards for Labor on election day.

    I am hoping for a joyful election count back at the campsign onoffice Saturday night. I think that seat, Makin, will stay with Labor.

    The incumbent is an alright bloke but I have a long memory. He was not a Julia Gillard supporter, imo.

  23. Ah, the Rupertarium. Front page headline in The Australian.

    Teal candidate in Dutton’s electorate volunteered for Greens at last election

    I can imagine the scene at The Australian’s newsroom when they discovered this.

  24. Labor holds clear lead as time runs short for a Coalition rebound, poll reveals
    https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/federal/labor-holds-its-lead-as-time-runs-short-for-a-liberal-rebound-poll-reveals-20250429-p5luz8.html

    #ResolvePM (final I think) ALP 31 L-NP 35 Green 14 ON 7 IND 8 other 5Based on candidates on ballot in each seat.2PP 53-47 to ALP by both 2022 election and respondent prefs.

    — Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T08:23:29.183Z

    Guardian Essential poll: Labor leads Coalition in final pre-election poll as Dutton’s approval rating slips – TPP 52-48 theguardian.com/australia-ne… #ausvotes #auspol

    — Leroy (@leroylynch.bsky.social) 2025-04-28T23:00:26.558Z

    The Essential poll voting figures are here (undecided % left in, primaries can't be easily compared to other polls) essentialreport.com.au/reports/fede… 29/4 Essential Report with the issue questions is here essentialreport.com.au/reports/29-a… #auspol #ausvotes

    — Leroy (@leroylynch.bsky.social) 2025-04-28T23:01:21.263Z

    Dutton walks out of press conference as Albanese prepares for blitz of six states
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/29/dutton-walks-out-of-press-conference-as-albanese-prepares-for-blitz-of-six-states

    I did NOT have "Mr Williams intervened on at least five occasions to encourage interviews with comedian Sandy Gutman, better known by his stage name Austen Tayshus" on my 2025 bingo card. I would not have been able to say with 100% confidence that Austen Tayshus was still alive.

    — Leroy (@leroylynch.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T02:30:02.431Z

    Carney vows to govern for all Canadians after winning election upended by Trump
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-poilievre-federal-election-vote-1.7518649

    5 key takeaways from Monday’s historic vote
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/takeaways-election-results-1.7521355

  26. Canada election: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre loses seat he held since 2004

    Now, Il Dutto , see if you can make it a double.

  28. Friendly type

    He’s asked a follow up on whether the Liberal party shares values with One Nation, but Dutton skips over the reporter.

    Like yesterday, Dutton’s choosing to avoid or ignore a lot of the follow-up questions during the presser today.

    ibidem

  29. HMS Prince of Wales leads show of military force as £3.5billion aircraft carrier spearheads fearsome fleet of warships in the Mediterranean – with crew ready to defy China over Taiwan

    They do know that Taiwan isn’t in the Mediterranean ? 😆

  34. Now that the Canadian election is over, just letting it be known that I intend to put up a new thread on Friday night for the Australian election results the following night.

  36. Time to stop funding their schools !

    Catholic schools election intervention in key seats sparks independents’ ire
    ByChip Le Grand
    April 30, 2025 — 7.40pm

    The Catholic Church in Victoria has intervened in the federal election campaign, attempting to dissuade their school parents from voting for Greens or independent candidates in seven hotly contested electorates.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/catholic-schools-election-intervention-in-key-seats-sparks-independents-ire-20250430-p5lvfp.html

  38. The Plymouth Brethren Christian Church’s support for the Liberal Party has stepped up with the son of the church’s global leader seen campaigning at a Sydney voting booth on Wednesday. http://www.watoday.com.au/national/vic... #ausvotes #auspol

    — Leroy (@leroylynch.bsky.social) 2025-04-30T21:39:44.992Z

    At the 2017 Qld state election the LNP preferenced One Nation above Labor on their HTV cards in about 50 seats. Former Qld Nats Premier Rob Borbidge described any interaction with them as toxic. George Brandis told the senate it was poison. #ausvotesyoutu.be/rmDB3KDT8qk

    — David Marler (@qldaah.bsky.social) 2025-04-30T17:36:01.281Z

    #Redbridge final national pollALP 34 L-NP 34 Green 12 ON 8 others 122PP 53-47 to ALP(My last-election estimate for these primaries as published is similar, 53.2)

    — Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham.bsky.social) 2025-04-30T10:12:12.283Z

    Genuinely good news for both the UK and India, and arguably more upside (and *considerably* less downside) than any sort of "deal" with Trump.www.politico.eu/article/uk-i…

    — Jonathan Portes (@jdportes.bsky.social) 2025-04-30T06:05:25.737Z

  39. Very hard to not agree with the assessment.

    Dutton has led one of the worst election campaigns in living memory

    Peter Dutton must have believed he could skate to victory. How else to explain his abject failure to prepare credible policies.

    Niki Savva

    …………….If complacency wasn’t responsible, it had to be stubbornness or incompetence. Maybe a combination of the three. Dutton lacked the desire, the strength, the confidence and the judgment to forge a path back to the centre after the debacle of the 2022 election.

    With every sign the economy was improving, that inflation was moderating and interest rates easing, he needed to do much more than recycle a Trumpism, asking people if they were better off now than three years ago.

    Instead, Dutton prepared for the political equivalent of a pentathlon by lounging in the studios of his luvvy media, the Sky After Dark and conservative radio hosts who provided refuge as well as guidance. It was no help at all for what would follow.

    In the final, critical days of the campaign, rather than zeroing in laser-like on cost of living, the economy or something remotely connected to a policy, Dutton ignited not one but two self-indulgent, whining culture wars – one against Indigenous people and the other against the “hate media” of the ABC and The Guardian.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-has-led-one-of-the-worst-election-campaigns-in-living-memory-20250429-p5lv7q.html

  40. Leroy

    Re those fundies. They go waay back.

    Brethren linked to Howard campaign
    September 16, 2005

    The Exclusive Brethren, a moralistic sect causing a political furore in the New Zealand general election, has been connected to a campaign for the re-election of John Howard and the self-confessed adulterer Ross Cameron…………

    John Kaye, said the Brethren should return their schools’ public funding because they had used a school as a front for political activity. “It is outrageous that a private school receiving more than $2.4 million each year in public funds can engage in partisan politics. It is an abuse of public trust and a misuse of public resources.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/brethren-linked-to-howard-campaign-20050916-gdm2tx.html

  42. Given the campaign we’ve seen it is a claim I think we can believe 😆

    Trump campaign chief claims he visited Australia to advise Liberals at start of election campaign

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/01/trump-campaign-chief-lacivita-liberal-party-australia-ntwnfb-election-claims

    Some ‘messaging from The Grauniad ? Top of the ‘front page’ were 2 articles side by side , the one above and this one

    shock new poll predicts majority for Labor and Coalition to have fewest MPs since 1946

    Now could there be a connection ? 😆

    • ‘‘I was in Australia two weeks ago helping the Liberal party there, on some of their structural issues that they were having with Peter Dutton,” LaCivita said on 16 April in the first of two calls. Australia’s election campaign began on 28 March.

      😀 😀 😀 👿

  44. Judging by this headline the orcs at The Rupertariat’s HQ look to be moving towards the acceptance stage of grief.

    Dutton won’t say if he’ll step down should Coalition lose

  45. ……..the Coalition will release its costings later today,

    They’re on the way to the presser ‘as we speak’

    • Back to Grogs:

      Inflation might be driven by expectation – but not the expectations of a lack of a tax cut in 2 years.

      The suggestion that inflationary expectations will be lower because people won’t get a tax cut in 2 years is absurd.

      ibid.

  49. Coalition’s costing ‘craziness’

    Matt Grudnoff

    Senior Economist

    I can now see why the Coalition didn’t want to publish these costings until the very last minute.

    There are all kinds of craziness in there. But my initial thoughts are:

    They are planning to save $17.3 billion from sacking… sorry… the natural attrition of public servants only from Canberra and not from front line positions or national security or home affairs . This has as much chance of being delivered on time and on budget as their nuclear plan. At some point the Coalition will either start sacking people from across the country and from front line services, or they will give up on ever getting close to a $17 billion amount.

    If they can’t save anything like $17 billion then their claims to improve the budget bottom line by $14 billion will go up in smoke.

    Other interesting things from a first quick look:

    They’re planning to cut foreign aid by $814 million. The last time the Coalition did this it destroyed our reputation across the region which required extensive work and time to repair.

    They want to raise another $3.1 billion from foreign students in additional visa application charges, while also planning big cuts to migration.

    At a time when the economic, workforce participation, and child development benefits of early childhood education and care are well known, they’re planning to save $308 million by reintroducing the childcare activity test.

    …

    Jane Hume messes up public service policy again

    In that press conference Hume was asked about the number of Canberra public servants and said:

    There was around 110,000 or so in the middle of 2024. In 2024, before the majority of the increase has occurred. There was around 110,000 public servants in Canberra.

    So that is the figure they are using to justify cutting all 41,000 public servants from Canberra.

    But the problem is, she is wrong. Because the actual number of public servants is about 68,000. The number that Hume is using includes ALL government employees – so that is defence, Australia Post, the ABC etc.

    So unless the Coalition is going to cut ADF personnel, then Hume is wrong.

    ibid.

  50. Angus Taylor said the Coalition would beat inflation, sustainably boost growth, fix energy markets and fix the housing market while releasing costings. Taylor said the Coalition will improve the budget bottom line by $14bn over the forward estimates and deliver a $40bn improvement in the level of gross debt.

    He left out “bring peace on earth” and ‘cure the common cold.’ . If only we could have seen a journo ask “How ? “.

Comments are closed.