Elections in France and the UK

Kirsdarke election night, Political Observation, , , , ,

This is going to be a big week in international politics, because both France and the UK will be holding legislative elections.

In France, it will be held over 2 rounds on 30 June and 7 July via a runoff system. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron’s Centrist Party is expected to suffer major losses to Marine Le Pen’s Populist Right party, with the French Socialist Left and Greens forming an alliance to contest this. Since the final results of Round 2 will be determined on what happens on Round 1, it’s difficult to predict what will happen. All that’s known is that there are 577 seats in the French Legislative Assembly, so a majority of 289 is needed. Currently, no parties seem to be able to secure that.

In the UK, there is a General Election due on 4 July (next Thursday), where the all-important BBC Exit Poll is due to be released on 10pm UK time, or 7am Friday Australian Eastern Time. But polls currently predict a massive majority to Keir Starmer’s Labour Party of 400+ seats with around 40% of the vote, what with the right wing vote split between incumbent Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party and Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, both of them at around 15-20% of the vote, and with the UK’s First-Past-The-Post voting system, there are no preferences as there is in Australia, simply the candidate with the most votes wins each of the 650 seats.

As a result, Labour is expected to easily win in a record landslide, according to the current polls. We’ll know by Friday.

https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast

22 thoughts on “Elections in France and the UK”

    • Quite quickly, going from previous experience. I remember the moment when the 2019 election exit poll was released, with nothing but the Big Ben Bell chiming as it was revealed that Boris Johnson’s Conservatives would win with an 80+ seat majority.

      From there it’ll be a long, arduous day with the results of each of the 650 seats being announced one-by-one, with some lasting into Saturday. But I think Labour will get the necessary 326 seats for a majority fairly quickly in that day.

    • Thanks, Helen. I’ll be posting updates on significant results throughout the week as they happen as well.

      Also I missed it in the head post, but there’s also the Iran Presidential Election being held on Friday (with results being expected on Saturday Australian time), so I’ll be keeping an eye on that as well.

  7. https://theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-support-for-coalition-and-labor-falls-as-nuclear-debate-divides-along-party-lines/news-story/43111960c045c2df0c74c74bb08a7cf0

    https://archive.is/ii2Zj no paywall version of main Newspoll article

    TPP: ALP 51 (+1) L/NP 49 (-1)

    Primaries: ALP 32 (-1) L/NP 36 (-3) GRN 13 (+2) ON 7 (0) Others 12 (+2)

    Preferred PM: Albanese 46 (0) Dutton 38 (0)

    Albanese: Approve 42 (-1) Disapprove 53 (+3)

    Dutton: Approve 38 (-1) Disapprove 54 (+5)

    poll conducted June 24 – 28 with 1260 voters

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/newspoll-leaders-mediocrity-leaves-voters-dulled-frustrated/news-story/5bb7f5c76903640cfc66b28f2020af83

    https://archive.is/c5JVQ no paywall version of extra Newspoll article

    Reply

    • Thanks for that, Leroy.

      It seems that the so-called genius idea of Nuclear Energy hasn’t paid off for Dutton for the moment.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The nuclear debate is there to be won for Peter Dutton but the bigger problem lies with electoral disillusionment deepening with neither Labor nor the Coalition having an answer, says Simon Benson of the latest Newspoll.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/newspoll-leaders-mediocrity-leaves-voters-dulled-frustrated/news-story/5bb7f5c76903640cfc66b28f2020af83?amp=

    Rather than talking about policies that may never be, Labor was able to spend the week talking about tax cuts, wage rises and power bill rebates taking effect, writes Sean Kelly. He says last week may have served as dress rehearsal for an intriguing political contest ahead: between an earthbound government, drawn to small but concrete actions, and an opposition floating free of constraints, drawn to the grand gesture with little in the way of detail to pin it down. (Interestingly, this is the reverse of the situation during the Voice debate.)

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/who-knew-governments-do-better-when-they-actually-govern-20240628-p5jpot.html

    Shane Wright says Anthony Albanese or Peter Dutton will have to offer sizeable personal income tax relief to prevent the value of stage 3 tax cuts being wiped away in as little as two years, amid warnings the long-awaited relief package will do little to strengthen the economy and the budget. Australia has a REVENUE problem!

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/value-of-stage-3-tax-cuts-will-be-gone-soon-after-next-election-20240619-p5jn7f.html

    Higher-than-expected inflation will take at least 12 months to fall anywhere near the Reserve Bank’s target, casting doubt on Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ more optimistic forecast, says the AFR’s Joanne Tran.

    https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/inflation-has-no-chance-of-hitting-chalmers-forecasts-survey-20240627-p5jpf6

    The SMH editorial declares that political guts and policy muscle needed for true tax reform.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/political-guts-and-policy-muscle-needed-for-true-tax-reform-20240630-p5jpx7.html

    Generous tax breaks given to investors with more than one property will cost the federal budget more than $165bn over the next decade, new costings show. The Parliamentary Budget Office analysis, requested by the Greens and released today shows tax revenue forgone due to the federal government’s policies of negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts will total about $165.58bn between 2024-25 and 2033-24.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/01/negative-gearing-and-capital-gains-tax-discounts-to-cost-australian-budget-165bn-over-10-years-analysis-reveals

    Ross Gittins tells us why interest rate speculators should get back in their box. He takes the press “peanut gallery” to task for reacting to single observations in a noisy system. (My avatar, Dr W E Deming, would go troppo at people reacting to things happening with a system rather than ON it. “A single figure can have no relevance””, he would often say.)

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-interest-rate-speculators-should-get-back-in-their-box-20240630-p5jpvj.html

    Albanese had to act on Payman, but doing so creates new headaches for Labor, explains Jammes Massola.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-had-to-act-on-payman-but-doing-so-creates-new-headaches-for-labor-20240630-p5jpwy.html

    In the end, Payman gave Albanese no choice, says Phil Coorey.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/in-the-end-payman-gave-albanese-no-choice-20240630-p5jpx9

    Nick Toscano reports that there are fears that a second Trump presidency could slow the rollout of electric cars and renewables, softening demand for Australia’s critical minerals.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-the-us-election-result-could-hurt-australia-s-green-metals-exports-20240630-p5jpur.html

    Star symbols are common on supermarket food products, from 0.5 to five full stars. What do they really mean? And how much should you rely on them? Not too much, explains Susie Burrell.

    https://www.smh.com.au/goodfood/tips-and-advice/why-that-healthy-supermarket-snack-with-the-five-star-rating-might-be-bad-news-20240620-p5jnfd.html

    Journalists and publishers remain under threat all over the world, especially in our region. Australia, which is no beacon for media freedom, needs to step up, urge Caoilfhionn Gallagher and Jennifer Robinson who  will be at the National Press Club today talking about the plight of their client, Jimmy Lai, long time pro-democracy activist, media owner and, at 76, Hong Kong’s oldest political prisoner.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/assange-may-be-free-but-journalism-everywhere-is-in-chains-20240628-p5jpk6.html

    The freedom messiah Assange is free, but a few women won’t join the cheer squad opines Jacqui Maley who says, “His pursuit by the US Justice department was unconscionable for anyone who believes in press freedom. But the allegations of his behaviour towards women, if true, are truly despicable.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-freedom-messiah-is-free-but-a-few-women-won-t-join-the-cheer-squad-20240627-p5jped.html

    A failure to foresee the runaway pace of population growth in Melbourne’s outer west has left a local council hundreds of millions of dollars short of the money it needs for new roads, bridges, bike trails, community halls and kindergartens. Adam Carey writes that the council will lean on the development sector to fill the financial black hole, jacking up levies in a move the housing industry warns will add tens of thousands of dollars to the cost of each new home and potentially stall some developments.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/miscalculation-leaves-melton-224m-short-for-roads-kindergartens-bridges-bike-trails-20240530-p5ji0c.html

    There have been at least 16 investigations into defence personnel allegedly engaging with extremism or supremacism in the last two years, documents obtained by Guardian Australia reveal. Of the cases, which span February 2022 to April 2024, nine are still “pending” while two are open. Sixteen concerned army personnel in various units and two in the navy. The Guardian tells us that the matters are part of Operation Lumen, which began in 2020 and is an ongoing investigation into alleged links between Australian Defence Force personnel and extremist or supremacist groups or ideologies.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/30/australia-defence-force-adf-extremism-links-operation-lumen-ntwnfb

    Billionaire Andrew Forrest’s recent court win in the US promises to pierce the US laws that have long cloaked Facebook’s trillion-dollar business from the harm caused by fraud on its platform – including scam ads using images of Forrest. A US court ruled last month that it would consider whether the social media group breached its duty to the public by allowing fraudulent advertisements to appear on its platform. The court also found that Forrest, executive chairman and founder of iron ore miner Fortescue, had cause for action under California common law to claim for misappropriation of his name and likeness. Interesting!

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/billionaire-andrew-forrest-s-court-win-threatens-to-expose-facebook-s-trillion-dollar-secrets-20240627-p5jp5z.html

    The River Seine – set to be a centrepiece of next month’s Paris Olympics – is still failing water quality tests one month before it is scheduled to host two swimming events. Rob Harris tells us the latest tests, completed last week and released by the Paris mayor’s office on Friday, showed levels of E.coli bacteria – an indicator of faecal matter – far above the upper limits imposed by international sports federations.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/seine-awash-in-bacteria-one-month-before-open-water-olympic-swimming-20240629-p5jpqt.html

    According to exit polls, French voters have slapped Macron, propelling the far-right to a strong lead in France’s election’s first round.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/french-voters-slap-macron-propel-far-right-to-strong-lead-in-election-first-round-20240701-p5jpzf.html

    John Crace has another entertaining contribution on the UK election campaign.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/dim-dowden-is-not-the-right-tory-frontman-to-energise-a-flat-campaign

    “Should Democrats stay the course or replace Biden?”, wonders Robert Reich. After the president’s disastrous debate performance, some want to drop him as the party nominee. But it’s not so simple, he says.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/30/should-democrats-replace-biden

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Badiucao

    Jim Pavlidis

    Matt Golding

    Mark David

    Alan Moir

    Fiona Katauskas

    Mark Knight

    https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/349c6d538565b9b360aa9993b4e2e221#image.jpg

    https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/0125b46f4b6b712388fcddbf6cac3aa0#image.jpg

    https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/e6e60e4ca32e8e6e1b3cce66604c2bcf#image.jpg

    Leak

    https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/c6cfc9833a284f14dcbc81ba484592aa?width=1024#image.jpg

    From the US

    Reply

  9. Dr W E Deming, …………“A single figure can have no relevance””, he would often say.)

    Unless you are a politician or a media lizard as “A single figure” is a vital part of their tool kit 😦 . Vote 1 Deming.

    Reply

  11. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/01/nsw-liberal-coalition-collapse-nationals-leader-dugald-saunders-mark-speakman-wes-fang

    NSW Coalition at risk of collapse after Nationals leader backs Wes Fang in spat with Liberals

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-01/asic-parliamentary-report-findings-brutal-bragg/104036868

    Insiders have been alarmed by ASIC’s culture for years. Now a parliamentary inquiry will lay bare its flaws.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-01/solar-charges-government-relief-means-power-bills-are-changing/104038278

    Solar charges, new prices and government handouts mean your power bill will change from today

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-01/abandoned-antarctica-wilkes-station-concerns-french/104037416

    French inspection team says abandoned Wilkes Station poses ‘clear risk’ to Antarctic environment

    Reply

  13. So far in the first round of the French election, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and allies have won 38 seats outright, the Socialist-Green Alliance have won 32 seats, Macron’s Ensemble has won 2 seats, the Republicans (centre-right) have won 1 seat, and right wing independents have won 3 seats.

    For the second round next Sunday, the remaining 501 seats will have their runoff votes, although I was wrong in the title post that only the top 2 candidates qualify for each seat, it is in fact any candidate that wins more than 12.5% of the vote.

    There will be 5 seats with 4-way contests, 306 seats with 3-way contests, and the remaining 190 will be 2-way contests. However, candidates can withdraw their nominations for the second round by Tuesday if they choose to do so.

    Reply

  15. The clear winner for 😆 headline of the day is………………………….. The Rupertarium’s The Australian

    Media ignores the science in energy debate

    Chris Mitchell

    CHRIS MITCHELL

    Columnist

    A truly superhuman effort to maintain a straight face in such close proximity to that headline. Years of practice I suppose…

    Reply

    • One of my favourite scenes from Blackadder.

      “Ivor Jest Ye Not Madam Biggun.” (Standing at the back dressed stupidly and looking stupid party).

      And also Colin the Dachshund.

      Fun fact from that episode is that Vincent Hanna is a collector of Trade Union memorabilia, so he took on this role to qualify for being an Equity Member (basically the British Actors’ Union).

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