Liberté, égalité, fraternité

As a conversation thread starter, here are some links to help understand the recent election in France. I will avoid all but one of the obvious “This isn’t the end of Macron or France’s problems” articles, of which there seem to be at least a thousand.

Firstly, it is interesting that the polls moved to Macron between the first and second round, and his final vote slightly exceeded his best final poll, which might be partly accounted for by the fact that there is no last day polling by law. As with the 2017 election, I think some who don’t like Macron and who love to complain about the way things are, admit to themselves in the last week or even the last day that they will still vote to block the one they like even less. This 2021 post on french performative miserablism and polling on vaccination partly covers what might be a national political and polling tendancy.

https://www.tomforth.co.uk/miserabilism/

The below by John Lichfield from before the vote is a good read, he argues that the old French Right-Left system has mutated into a muddled pattern of three broad tribes: the scattered Left and the Greens; a pro-European, consensual Centre; and a nationalist-populist, anti-migrant and anti-European Right. No winner will ever be really popular with more than a third of the country.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20220419/opinion-macron-will-win-the-french-election-and-then-his-real-problems-begin/

Late last year Manu Saadia wrote a series of Substack posts on the French election for the benefit of the non french, explaining the basics and background really well. He stopped well before the vote, but they are still a good read. https://lacampagne.substack.com/

In particular I draw your attention to the one on why the Presidential vote matters so much, “Camembert President.” He writes “France is a monarchy that undergoes a succession crisis every five years, by way of an election. It is by design. Under France’s current constitutional arrangement, the so-called Fifth Republic, the sole real seat of power is the office of the presidency. It is therefore unsurprising that all civic and political life would revolve around it.”

https://lacampagne.substack.com/p/camembert-president

Another good read, “Eric Zemmour and the long shadow of France’s defeat in Algeria”

https://lacampagne.substack.com/p/the-long-shadow-of-frances-defeat

The amazing mechanics of an election that spans the entire globe

https://lacampagne.substack.com/p/a-vote

Finally, I recommend to you the recently launched Le Monde english language edition. Why read US and UK takes on European news when you can now get the news direct? Most of the best European newspapers are only in the local language, so this is a good development for us. Some articles are subscriber only (although you can usually still read good chunks of those), but many are free to read. Worth bookmarking the site for french news. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/

Two articles to start…

Jean-Luc Mélenchon devises plan to become Emmanuel Macron’s main opponent

The leader of the radical left hopes to win the legislative elections in June. Labor Day protests on May 1st will be the the left’s first show of strength against President Macron.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2022/04/27/jean-luc-melenchon-devises-plan-to-become-emmanuel-macron-s-main-opponent_5981705_5.html

Quarrelling French far right struggles to unite for legislative elections

Marine Le Pen has already set her sights on the June 12 and 19 elections, hoping to induct a significant far-right group to the Assemblée Nationale. Eric Zemmour called for an alliance while criticizing her defeat, fueling their rivalry.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2022/04/27/quarrelling-french-far-right-struggles-to-unite-for-legislative-elections_5981707_5.html

392 thoughts on “Liberté, égalité, fraternité

  1. Judging by all the Twitter comments on David Speers change of style this morning he seems to have finally realised he has been backing the wrong side. Could he be worried about hanging onto his job after next weekend?

    Anyone noticing David Speers didn't interrupt Albo on #insiders but did with Josh Frydenberg? Major shift.What's going on? Why 🙄#auspol #ausvotes #AusVotes2022— Politic@l Spinner (@LesStonehouse) May 15, 2022

    • The “fears” about the Cashless Debit Card are NOT a Labor scare campaign.

      The legislation already allows for age pensioners to be forced onto the card. There are already pensioners on it in card “trial” areas. Anne Ruston until a few months ago was talking happily about pushing everyone on social security of any kind onto what she described as “a universal system”.

      Labor and the Greens have promised to scrap this card, while the Libs and Nats, plus ON and UAP are all for it to be extended.

    • I watch Gogglebox – usually I skip the parts that are promotions for crap like MAFS and similar shows, but every so often you get gems like this.

  2. Vale the man who single handedly redifined the art of fielding and the best run out marksman of all time.

    Andrew Symonds killed in car accicent Saturday night.

  3. Those Barbie Pink lips!!!!!

    When he said he’d change, I wasn’t expecting drag make up.— Kent Parkstreet (@thespecialbka) May 15, 2022

    Genuine photo from AAP, not photoshopped. And an over-done fake tan. How very Trumpian!

  4. juice media has coined a brilliant new word see if you can spot it – (hint;- it starts with scot….)

    • It started out like a bit of fun but I gradually more and more nauseous the further it went. In the end I was feeling much like Janice and desperately looking of a chunder bucket.

    • “Hilarious” is not the word to describe this. I found it incredibly sad that Australia has degenerated so much since the Coalition came to power.

      I too needed a sick bag by the end.

  5. Good way of making houses more expensive

    Setting up a contrast with Labor for the final week of the election campaign, the prime minister used the Liberal party’s official campaign launch to promise a new super home buyer scheme that would allow people to access up to $50,000 of superannuation savings for the purchase of a first home.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/15/scott-morrison-uses-liberal-party-campaign-launch-to-set-up-housing-battle-with-labor

  6. The most dangerous time in any kingdom or dictatorship is when the old leader is close to karking it or being overthrown. It is rare for everyone to get out of those circumstances alive or in one piece. I do not see Putin’s Russia as any different. His time is almost up, give or take five years. He has already lived longer than the usual lifespan of a Russian male.

    It is a tragedy that he is taking all those Ukrainian (and Russian) young people, kids, and babies with him. They will never get the lifespan Putin enjoyed, the selfish evil old bastard. I wish I believed in Hell, so a special ring of torment could be built just for him and the others like him.

  7. Leone2
    As a woman with my late start and broken work history, I don’t have anywhere near $50k in my super!
    Women like us should get grants to take us to $100,000k in superannuation, making up for the financial loss we suffer because of the work and social policies of the 20th Century. And men who also suffered for missing out on superannuation for whatever reason. Injured workers, war veterans, full-time carers of disabled kids, longh periods on the dole etc.

    This country has its values really screwed up. We need free education to the first Bachelor level and Honours level, or free trade training. We need the oldies spending money so the economy keeps moving. We need affordable housing for working people and public housing for anyone else. WE do not need people working three gig jobs to 60+ hours a week to live, while others get 15 hours a week at their workplace and live in their car.

    The wealthy are trying to asset strip the lower-down classes AGAIN. Many of those homes bought with deposits from workers’ superannuation are going to end up in foreclosure, so the wealthy get the super and the houses. It is the kind of idea only a Morriscum and cronies could come up with, as they usually do!

    • I live in what is now Community Housing. Initially it was public housing and I only jumped to the top of the waiting list in 1990 because I was expected to die.

      I think I am lucky to have my house. Without it I would be living in my car.

      It is scandalous that no Australian or state government has been interested in providing adequate amounts of public housing for several decades. Instead they profit from selling off homes which are never replaced.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Sean Kelly reckons that Albanese has now got it right after hid 5.1% “Absolutely” remark. He also looks at Morrison being a “bulldozer”, saying the only time the bulldozer has been in operation is to stop things happening.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/after-labouring-the-point-albanese-finally-gets-his-story-straight-20220514-p5alcs.html
    David Crowe, in this assessment of yesterday’s Coalition campaign launch, says it was consciously reactive to the central accusation from Albanese that Morrison has no plan for the future and is asking voters to give the Liberals and Nationals a second decade in power after three terms in government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-repositions-himself-with-positive-pitch-to-younger-voters-as-campaign-enters-the-final-week-20220515-p5alhu.html
    James Massola tells us about an interview yesterday where Anthony Albanese laid out an ambitious two-term strategy to roll out universal childcare, add superannuation to paid parental leave, expand the scheme and potentially hold a royal commission into the management of the pandemic. He also said he wanted to “change the way that politics operates in this country” by avoiding soundbites and “actually answering questions”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-reveals-two-term-strategy-if-labor-wins-20220515-p5alg9.html
    I’ll get out of your lives, promises Morrison. Just re-elect me first, writes Jacqui Maley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-ll-get-out-of-your-lives-promises-morrison-just-re-elect-me-first-20220515-p5ali3.html
    David Crowe and Stephanie Peatling (haven’t see her for a while) report that Scott Morrison has picked a policy brawl with Labor to shape the final week of the election campaign by unveiling plans to allow first home buyers to withdraw up to $50,000 from their superannuation to get into the property market.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/first-home-buyers-could-use-superannuation-under-coalition-government-20220515-p5alh3.html
    Phil Coorey writes that Scott Morrison has set up a contest over housing affordability with Labor and the superannuation industry just six days out from the election, by announcing homebuyers will be able to use up to $50,000 each from their super account to get into the market.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-takes-on-labor-super-funds-with-housing-pitch-20220515-p5alfy
    Super for houses is a bad policy, but Scott Morrison wants to pick a fight over it says Katherine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/15/super-for-houses-is-a-bad-policy-but-scott-morrison-wants-to-pick-a-fight-over-it
    The AFR’s editorial concludes with, “Drawing on superannuation may help more self-reliant young people get into the housing market, but it falls far short of fixing the tax, pension and regulatory distortions that have made affordable home ownership a receding dream for younger generations.”
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/housing-gimmicks-won-t-make-the-australian-dream-affordable-20220512-p5akul
    Scott Morrison is running out of time to turn an electoral tide that’s carrying the Coalition out to sea. His new housing policy is one Labor can’t copy, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-launches-his-own-rescue-plan-20220515-p5algt
    “Coming to a Saturday auction near you – first time buyers with an extra $50,000 in their pockets that will push up prices and make housing more unaffordable”, says Shane Wright.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/another-housing-solution-that-will-drive-up-prices-20220515-p5alha.html
    If the polls are right, he may soon be the next Australian prime minister. So, who is Anthony Albanese, explores Paul Strangio.
    https://theconversation.com/if-the-polls-are-right-he-may-soon-be-the-next-australian-prime-minister-so-who-is-anthony-albanese-177617
    Michelle Grattan looks at what makes Scott Morrison tick and suggests his beating heart is a focus group.
    https://theconversation.com/his-beating-heart-is-a-focus-group-what-makes-scott-morrison-tick-182940
    “Could this be the election in which News Corp’s impotence is exposed?”, asks Margaret Simons who doesn’t hold back in her criticism.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/could-this-be-the-election-in-which-news-corp-s-impotence-is-exposed-20220515-p5alev.html
    Morrison dislikes any one and any thing he can’t control. It is very fortunate for him that News Corp’s hatreds, prejudices, intolerances and racism correspond to his own including the worship of money, writes Bruce Haigh who says Morrison loathes foreigners and foreign policy.
    https://johnmenadue.com/morrison-loathes-foreigners-and-foreign-policy/
    From The Australian. “As the seemingly endless six-week election campaign drags into its final days, relations have become decidedly frosty between two Canberra press gallery leaders, Nine’s Chris Uhlmann and The Guardian’s political editor Katharine “Murpharoo” Murphy. Any pretence of civility between two of the press gallery’s best-known members disintegrated last week, after Murphy fired off an insult-riddled 1000-word opinion piece, which eviscerated Nine’s Sunday night ‘Great Debate’ under the 60 Minutes banner.”
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/chris-uhlmann-vs-katharine-murphy-canberras-latest-feud/news-story/0f6fcca5ddbd610159df9a5ba2615751
    The fight for the Liberals’ future will be vicious if the Morrison Government is defeated this coming Saturday, says Andrew Bolt.
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/andrew-bolt/andrew-bolt-fight-for-libs-future-will-be-vicious-if-morrison-is-defeated/news-story/a3e4439fd518d37b68afcbe8aa0bbece?amp
    In the final, frenzied days of political campaigning all over Australia, Lee Duffield protests the “phony war” of insults used to attack Anthony Albanese and economic management.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morrisons-economic-trash-talking-is-out-of-order,16356
    The Age’s editorial declares that Labor’s climate policy easily beats Coalition’s.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-climate-policy-easily-beats-coalition-s-20220514-p5alb7.html
    An unholy alliance of carbon farmers and Big Gas lobbyists are quietly shaping Australia’s emissions reduction framework to maximise their take of taxpayer money while increasing emissions as much as possible. Callum Foote follows the money.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/grant-king-and-the-big-gas-con-how-fossil-fuel-giants-are-cheating-australias-emissions-system/
    Robert Glasser is concerned that political leaders are ignoring the biggest threat to our national security, climate change.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/political-leaders-ignoring-the-biggest-threat-to-our-national-security-20220429-p5ah6s.html
    Our governments should be ashamed of decades of neglect in scaling back carbon and methane emissions. In the upcoming Federal Election, we must vote to erode monopoly politics, writes Gerry Georgatos.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/independents-may-be-our-only-shot-at-helping-the-environment,16350
    No, Mr Morrison. Minority government need not create ‘chaos’ – it might finally drag Australia to a responsible climate policy, argues Kate Crowley.
    https://theconversation.com/no-mr-morrison-minority-government-need-not-create-chaos-it-might-finally-drag-australia-to-a-responsible-climate-policy-181706
    The business community risks shooting itself in the foot by opposing wage increases, writes Ross Gittins who destroys some of their arguments.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/corporate-chiefs-should-back-wage-hikes-because-cheating-customers-ain-t-smart-business-20220515-p5algp.html
    Bruce Wolpe praises the enduring bipartisan relationship between Australia and the US and looks at the relationship that Noden and Albanese might have. A good read.
    https://johnmenadue.com/so-who-does-the-white-house-want-to-win-the-election/
    Justine Toh asks, “Is an Australian PM our pastor-in-chief?”
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7738611/is-an-australian-pm-our-pastor-in-chief/?cs=14258
    The decade-long uncertainty meted out to men, women and children who sought to come to Australia by boat has left them unable to pursue meaningful futures, writes Bianca Hall who says that for 19,000 people, this election could open the door to life.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/for-19-000-people-this-election-could-open-the-door-to-life-20220427-p5aghz.html
    Travers McLeod argues that poverty is a policy choice,
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/make-no-mistake-poverty-is-a-policy-choice-20220515-p5aley.html
    Without radical reform, the prognosis for our health system is grim, argues surgeon Dr Neela Janakiramanan.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/without-radical-reform-the-prognosis-for-our-health-system-is-grim-20220514-p5ald1.html
    Charles Maskell-Knight laments the erosion of Medicare.
    https://johnmenadue.com/charles-maskell-knight-the-erosion-of-medicare/
    Widening inequity in access to health care is curable but it may take the Teal Independents to write the script, opines Graeme Stewart.
    https://johnmenadue.com/widening-inequity-in-access-to-health-care-is-curable-but-it-may-take-the-teal-independents-to-write-the-script/
    Investigative journalists and publishing executives have warned a court order compelling a major media company to hand over documents before publication would have a chilling long-term effect on freedom of the press unless overturned, writes Zoe Samios.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/extraordinary-and-unprecedented-court-order-could-have-chilling-effect-on-journalism-20220515-p5ali5.html
    More from Samios who reports that the ABC is considering replacing its complaints handling system with an internal ombudsman that would report findings to the board after a lengthy review found there could be improvements made to the way it handles concerns from the public.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abc-board-told-to-appoint-complaints-ombudsman-20220513-p5al4g.html
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons wonders where the women’s rage of has 2021 gone.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/where-has-the-women-s-rage-of-2021-gone-20220511-p5ake7.html
    A lower-house candidate for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, who is linked to anti-vaccination protests, has been arrested near Parliament House. Lucia Grant, a teacher, is the party’s candidate for Fenner, the northern ACT seat currently held by Labor’s Andrew Leigh.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7738609/one-nation-candidate-for-fenner-arrested-near-parliament-house/?cs=14329
    Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson will seek broad support for an application to join NATO, she announced, after her party dropped its long-standing opposition to membership in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Not quite what Putin planned.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/sweden-seeks-nato-membership-as-ruling-party-drops-73-year-opposition-20220516-p5alki.html
    NATO’s secretary general says Vladimir Putin’s invasion has not gone to plan and Ukraine “can win this war” as new intelligence indicated Russia may have lost one third of the force it sent to the country.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/05/16/russia-troop-losses-british-intelligence/
    A white 18-year-old accused of a killing ten people in a racially motivated attack while wearing military gear and livestreaming with a helmet camera is believed to have released a manifesto in which he attributed his radicalisation to Christchurch mosque shooter Brenton Tarrant.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/at-least-eight-dead-in-daylight-mass-shooting-at-us-supermarket-20220515-p5alee.html
    Biden will do ‘everything in his power’ to end hate crimes. But can he do anything, wonders Farrah Tomazin.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/biden-will-do-everything-in-his-power-to-end-hate-crimes-but-can-he-do-anything-20220515-p5alhl.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Mark David


    Joe Benke

    Peter Broelman

    Megan Herbert

    Glen Le Lievre and a gif

    Mark Knight

    Leak

    From the US







  9. In the Rowe cartoon what does what is written on the logs in the fire mean ? It looks like DFBNYA . The ‘F’ might be a ‘T’ .

    • I have no idea what it means, but the alleged “F” looks like a “T” to me.

      I’m afraid I pay no attention to anything Scovid says these days, it all makes me want to throw up. I don’t even read transcripts of his utterances. Whatever he says is all lies anyway.

  10. “Super is a total failure. Most Australians will always be on the pension under super and it costs the budget more than it saves.

    Senator Bragg is WRONG

    Annually, there is much more spent on superannuation tax concessions for the wealthy than is spent on aged pensions.

    From memory tax concessions cost double the aged pension

  11. Yesterday there was a story in The Australian which claimed Scovid was given the questions ahead of the last debate on Wednesday night.

    He still lost the last debate, but the advance notice did allow him time to prepare,

    If true, and I have no doubt it is, it explains why Mark Riley said to Scovid “You are really smashing out those talking points”.

    But wait! There’s more!

    Van Badham’s Facebook page has a list of the alleged and actual questions. They are remarkably similar.
    https://www.facebook.com/ThatVanBadham

  12. Excellent thread (only 3 tweets) from Grace Tame on how Scovid is the ultimate abuser –

  13. Is Scott Morrison receiving a briefing on the new housing estates scheduled for Hawkesbury River flood plain. Are they planning evacuation routes to evacuate residents quickly when the next major flood occurs

    • No, he’s not, although he should be addressing the NSW government’s daft plan to allow huge housing developments on that flood plain.

      He was campaigning in Blair (Qld) and inspecting plans for another shonky housing development.

      The local Lib candidate, Sam Biggins, just happens to be from the real estate industry – if conning people counts as an “industry”.

      Jen really, really loves those plunging necklines, doesn’t she.

    • “And this is a model showing how high the flood waters will be”

  14. Just when you think Fox has sunk to it’s lowest level, they manage to outdo themselves again and again. Here it the latest circle of hell that they have managed to dig.

    Brian Tyler Cohen –

  15. connections between Alexander Downer, Clive Palmer and News Corp

    • FMD ! Hurrah $5,000,000,000 pissed up against the wall for invisible subs but by golly they really nailed the change of name. Now those Chinese will be screwed when they go looking for the Dept. of Defence.

  16. PvO says he has polling showing Deves in with a shot in Waringah. Details in tomorrow’s news (in a reply to someone who tweeted him, he says he got the info too late for today). Presumably Lib polling, but he hasn’t said who its from yet.

    After watching the video, the other three seats seem to be Parramatta (mentioned by name), and then possibly Benellong (there is a mention of Ryde) and maybe either Berowa or Bradsfield (a mention of Horsby) although that last one seems really odd.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/

    • Bernie Finn has been in the Victorian parliament for around 23 years all up, with a break between 1999 and 2006, yet the Libs have only just realised he is a fruitloop?

      He started off as a DLP candidate – that should have given them a few clues as to what he would be like.

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