2019 Federal Election: Climate Change and the Rise of Independents & Minor Parties

Longtime Pubster Vote1Julia is the author of this thread, which is complementary to Gippsland Laborite’s series, focusing as it does on minor party/independent candidates who pose a serious threat to sitting MPs. Thank you, V1J, and I hope your health continues to improve.

The number one issue in this election is Climate Change. This will be the undoing of the COALition ending in a landslide defeat. I believe that the most distinguishing result of this election will be the rise of Independents and Minor Parties in the once held safe conservative seats both in the country and the city.

I have compiled a Table listing the seats where the Independents and Minor Parties are in serious contention of unseating sitting MPs (possibly ending up with 12 to 15 seats).

131 thoughts on “2019 Federal Election: Climate Change and the Rise of Independents & Minor Parties

  1. Ducky,

    I think it’s okay now (I stuffed up the document link), but thank you for the offer.

  2. Calling all BKs . Calling all BKs. Amy Remeikis said this in her blog on the Guardian site re oil drilling in the Bight. As one of the Pub’s local reporters what say you re the issue among Crow Eaters ?
    Don’t underestimate how big an issue this is in South Australia.

    • Oil drilling in the Great Australian Bight is an issue up here in northern NSW too, as it is right around the coast from SA through Victoria to NSW. There is a fear that any oil contamination from a spill will flow up this far. No-one anywhere wants their beaches flooded with crude oil.

      There are charts that back this up, like the one in here –

      That is apart from the other issue everyone with a brain seriously and strongly objects to – seismic blasting in a marine park.

      The previous SA Labor government was all for oil and gas exploration in the GAB, despite protests and petitions galore. The current SA government is no different in that regard. I don’t expect a federal Labor government to be any different, especially not after Shorten’s enthusiasm for fracking the NT and opening up more oil and gas exploration.

      It’s a Norwegian company pushing for the latest exploration – more wealth leaving Australia with nothing to show for it but more environmental disasters. If we have to dig up this stuff why can’t it be an Australian company and why can’t we at least get the financial rewards?

      Interesting trivia – a bill to make the GAB a National Heritage area was introduced in the Reps by Rebekha Sharkie, last December, but lapsed when parliament was dissolved for the election. Just another example of a private member’s bill going nowhere because the major parties refuse to support it.

  3. I will be bloody glad when it is 6.00pm Saturday! Have enough tension to do with looking after an old parent (deaf, demented, incontinence issues) and working on developing my block in Tassie (only in school holidays so teacher sis can take over looking after parent.) I dream of being able to spend 3 months on my block + exploring my new state, oohhhhhh!

    Bubbly will be on ice!

    Labor will win. Icing on the cake would be Greens losing a few Senators.

  4. Hello Pubsters

    Some explanatory notes to the Table I compiled. In Parkes there is no standout Indie or Minor. Had the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers sufficient resources to field a candidate, Mark Coulton (Nationals) would lose (judging on the recent state election). Likewise in Dawson, George Christensen (LNP), aka the member for Manila, has no standout Indie or Minor. In Riverina, I have nominated Richard Foley, the Palmer UA candidate, since he stood as an Indie in 2016 and came third. The flow of preferences could prove a surprising result. In Hughes, at one stage there were reports of the formation of “Voices for Hughes” to oppose the obnoxious CC Denier, Craig Kelly, but no standout Indie / Minor has made themselves a serious contender. The Greens came third in 2016. The flow of preferences will be critical to unseat Kelly if there is a substantial swing against him. But I have no feedback on the “vibe” in Hughes so I don’t know what will happen.Hence the question mark.

    • Billie,

      Scrott is the ultimate motormouth, possibly on amphetamines.

      As for his ethics, let alone his judgement … for once, words fail me.

      I’m certain, however, that his Prosperity God (I wonder, does Scrott sacrifice virgin girls to appease/propitiate his deity???) is completely and utterly behind him.

      Hopefully to give him the boot.

  5. We all know Jacinda rocks but this is like moving mountains!

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has described a crackdown by Facebook on the abuse of its live streaming service as a good first step “that shows the Christchurch Call is being acted on”.

    Facebook will now block people who seriously violate its content rules from using its Facebook Live streaming service, without giving further warning, vice president Guy Rosen said in a statement on Wednesday.


  6. Something I’ve noticed in all these seat-level polls this campaign is that most of the most hotly-contested Coalition-held seats seem to be 51-49 in their favour. From Deakin to Pearce to Reid to etc.

    Surely they can’t all be right. Surely some are going to tilt just that little bit further. The worst timeline for me is that there’s 10+ Coalition marginal seats that just hold on with less than 51% of the vote.

    But I’m hopeful that all of this is just a repeat of the Victorian election where the media managed to create a narrative where it was on a knife’s edge, with the Coalition managing to win back the seats it lost in 2014 and enough from there to regain government and it was actually a 57-43 landslide.

    • Kirsdarke

      It will be a landslide loss to Coalition. Possibly 20 seats going to Labor, Indies & Minors. Labor will win enough for a comfortable majority (79-81). The “vibe” is out there for change.

  7. Why won’t these right-wing shills ask FauxMo who his minister for indigenous affairs will be? Or maybe who will replace Dutton in Home Affairs, in the unlikely event (a) the government is returned and (b) Dutton hangs on to Dickson.

    This “who will be your minster for home affairs” thing has been hammered by the media this week, and Bill keeps refusing to answer.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Katharine Murphy goes into the details of the latest Essential poll.
    Janet Albrechtsen to head up the IPA. Now there’s a surprise!
    Katharine Murphy says that there’s a discomfiting conjunction if Scott Morrison wins and the United Australia party leader picks up a Senate spot and she explains why Clive Palmer’s fantasies have real world consequences.
    Michael Koziol tells us about Barnaby Joyce going off the reservation regarding the “civil war” erupting within the Coalition over Senate voting in NSW.
    Gabrielle Chan also writes on this story.
    As does Michelle Grattan.
    Nationals federal president Larry Anthony has added his weight to a call by the NSW party for supporters to vote “below the line” in the Senate, in retaliation against the campaign by maverick Liberal senator Jim Molan to get voters to buck the Coalition’s joint ticket.
    The SMH editorial says that the first review of education funding by David Gonski under the Gillard government may have called for a needs-based approach, but it is clear that money is not following need and has not done so under successive Labor and Coalition governments. Things need to change.
    On this matter Peter Goss reports that Australia has increased the real resources available to schools by more than $2 billion in a decade, but we spent the extra money on the schools that needed it least.
    Sam Maiden reports that Tanya Plibersek has conceded a minority government remains a threat, with independents again potentially emerging as kingmakers. If the result is as close as some are tipping, the major parties may have to fight for the support of the crossbench.
    Former Queensland Nickel workers are being told to sign a document gagging them from making any disparaging comments about Clive Palmer in exchange for receiving their outstanding entitlements. The man is a shocker!
    The AFR tells us that Bill Shorten has assured business it need not fear a Labor government.
    The Independent Australia says that Scott Morrison may be on track to lead the conservatives to an honourable defeat. It also says it is time that the Murdoch monopoly in Australian media – particularly in single newspaper cities – is broken up. And the fools at the Daily Telegraph have given this idea a boost that many of us could only dream of.
    Paula Matthewson says that the vote of the politically homeless will send a message to major parties.
    Rory Maguire says that the realities of the energy market are changing fast, so Scott Morrison might consider brandishing silicon rather than coal in Parliament next time.
    Labor’s idea of an Evaluator General could dramatically cut wasteful spending say two academics in The Conversation.
    Noel Towell writes that Victoria’s newish status as a battleground state, a place where national elections can be won or lost, is here to stay and if you want to reach Victorian voters these days, you have to go through Daniel Andrews.
    Government meddling in the housing market is a slippery slope, as the experience in the United States shows, write John Kehoe and Jacob Greber in the AFR.
    Here is an excellent contribution from a gay man about the effect that continued comments from people from people like Falau has on the LGBTIQ community.
    Australians’ Medicare details are still being illegally offered for sale on the darknet, almost two years after Guardian Australia revealed the serious privacy breach. Paul Karp reports.
    Elizabeth Knight explains why the RBA has not recently lowered the interest rate. It’s all to do with a tax bonus that will hit income taxpayers’ bank accounts.
    Peter Hartcher writes that according to Ross Garnaut intelligent climate policy may give Australia the chance to become the most competitive place in the world to smelt aluminium and make steel.
    David Crowe reports that the Morrison government will unveil a new round of budget savings today to pay for at least $1.2 billion in spending promises as Labor intensifies its campaign against cuts to services.
    Jess Irvine explains that it’s toilet blocks at ten paces in the pork barrelling in key seats.
    Latika Bourke breaks the story that two former staffers who claim they were bullied in the office of Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt say they were ignored by Prime Minister Scott Morrison when they contacted him for help. Birmo gets a mention too.
    Judith Ireland on Shorten toying with the idea of giving Julie Bishop a plum diplomatic posting.
    Michaela Whitbourn reports that sexual harassment is “alarmingly commonplace” in the legal profession and Australia has among the highest reported rates of bullying and harassment in the world, according to a landmark survey of 7000 lawyers in more than 100 countries.
    A global research house says sales of petrol and diesel cars have passed their peak and by 2040 more than 60 per cent of new cars sales will be electric vehicles, boosting Labor’s election pledge to turbocharge Australia’s uptake.
    Jennifer Duke reports that US technology behemoths Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon and Twitter will join forces as part of an unprecedented push against the sharing of terrorist content in the aftermath of the Christchurch massacre.
    Bloomberg says we shouldn’t go searching for a strategy in Trump’s tariff moves – it’s personal.
    WhatsApp hacked and bugs in Intel chips: what you need to know to protect yourself.
    With Bolton whispering in Trump’s ear, war with Iran is no longer unthinkable, writes Owen Jones.
    American Airlines (AA) pilots angrily confronted a Boeing official about an anti-stall system suspected in two fatal crashes of the manufacturer’s 737 Max aircraft, according to a new recording.
    Today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week” goes to Paul Zanetti who is tweeting like mad over the old Shorten rape issue.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe has excelled here!

    Cathy Wilcox nails Abbott.

    From Matt Golding.

    Andrew Dyson and some oldies.

    Some pork from Matt Davidson.

    Mark David has two more for us today.

    Sean Leahy and Eurovision

    Lovely work here from Jon Kudelka over the voting below the line spat within the Coalition.

    From the US

  9. I read somewhere this morning that the AEC is not having a polling place in Cann River, which means they have to do a 150km round trip to vote on Saturday. The wouldn’t have had a pre poll booth either. That is just so wrong, no one should have to travel more than 30km to vote.

  10. Yawn …… the tired, discredited rubbish about Shorten and an alleged rape thirty-odd years ago has surfaced again.

    The police say there’s nothing to it, it was dismissed years ago as just the ravings of a deluded young woman out for revenge, or fame, or maybe a spot on morning TV, but Murdoch’s minions know better, they drag it out whenever Bill looks like winning.

    It’s like a comet, only nowhere near as interesting, it appears every three years at election time, sputters around for a couple of days then vanishes into deep space.

    It’s just that shrivelled old fart Murdoch having his revenge because Shorten refused to traipse over to New York (at our expense) to kneel before the old wreck, kiss his ring and receive a blessing ,

    We all know Murdoch’s schtick, he’s done it so often it’s way beyond stale and tired. As long as Labor leaders do as he says, make the pilgrimage to foreign shores,kneel before him and kiss his ring he’ll go easy on them until after the election. Once we have a Labor government he reverts to full-on attack mode.

    Seen it all too many times.

    The smartest thing Bill has done this campaign was to refuse to make that pointless pilgrimage.

    • I really don’t know about Jules. The media have been pushing the story for a few days, but I have a feeling it might have come from Jules herself,. She must be desperate to get a new job that gives her free travel, free accommodation and allows her to spend all her time in the US. She would love it and as a bonus she would be out of the way.

  11. Sounds good, but it’s not as good as all that. Paying out early is standard procedure for betting agencies, they do it all the time with sports matches. I mean, yes, they’re of the opinion that Labor almost certainly have this won, but they’re not saying it’s all over. it’s mainly to get people used to the idea of rolling over bets. A lot of those who have said “Bonus! Free money early!” are going to stick that money back into some kind of gamble; they’ve got the winning feeling now. And a fair percentage of them will plump for a riskier bet, reasoning that they have nothing to lose anyway. The money goes back to the betting industry. If not now, or on the next bet, then almost certainly somewhere down the line.

    I don’t believe an early payout like that is any confirmation of the likelihood of an ALP victory. That likelihood is exactly the same as it was.

    • Plus, at such short odds they’re not paying out a large volume of money. In the scale of things. It’s worth it to them for the publicity and, as I said, the likelihood of seeing that money gambled again.

  12. Bishop should get nothing BUT by gollie talking up her chances and reminders of how youse Eastern Staters did her wrong may be quite helpful to Labor in WA . After the election she can get stuffed but until then let kardashian Bishop strut about.

  13. Effing Malcolm. I hope some journo gets around to asking Scrott WTF?

    Australia’s secret US refugee deal faces blowback from victims, Kiwis
    Transfer of Rwandan suspected murderers highlights government’s hypocrisy over refugee policy.

    …………….But in a secret arrangement, Australia also agreed to take in at least two of three Rwandans who were brought to the U.S. to face trial — and potentially the federal death penalty — on charges of involvement in the brutal murder of eight tourists, including two Americans and two New Zealanders, who were on a gorilla-watching visit to the Ugandan rainforest in 1999.


    • So we really do have African criminals here, ones who were warmly welcomed by Home Affairs and Dutton.

      I remember the comments made by Turnbull about preferring to take criminals from the US rather than Nobel laureates who arrived by boat. Now we fully understand what he was on about.

      Dutton is up to his neck in this. I hope the undecided voters of Dickson take notice.

  14. leonetwo

    Do you think the media Hysteria Level from Mordor Media and 2GBland would be 10 or would it be turned up to 11 if Labor had of let in a couple like that ?

  15. As public health and safety warning I remind people to have their life jackets ready. With Josh releasing the costings for the Coalition there is Severe Bullshit Flood Warnings in place,

  16. Listened as much as I reasonably could to Shouty’s NPC address (still currently on).. I had a vague intention of tallying up the number of porkies. But really, it was so dull, I quickly became bored and switched off. He’s certainly not going to turn any remaining undecided votes on that, unless (and it’s quite possible in Oz) people prefer their leaders to be exceptionally dull so that they can forget about them.

    The question and answer session was barely more interesting. There seems to be more media acceptance of the likely change of government now. This seems more of a ‘save the furniture’ type of rally, similar to Rudd in 2013.

  17. We’re almost at the end of some six years of a dysfunctional coalition government and all we have heard is Labor, Labor ,Bill Shorten, Labor, for SIX FRIGGIN YEARS!!! plus just checked out the NPC and he’s still at it. I just hope the incoming government doesn’t fall into the same annoying habit. I hope they just put the past behind them and us and get on with rebuilding the country. Don’t even refer to their litany of failures only as an aside. To quote a monkees song title, “that was then, this is now”

    • Bert – are you still booked for surgery tomorrow? Best wishes for a good result and a speedy recovery if you are (and commiserations if you have been shoved down the waiting list).

    • Was just about to walk out the door when the dreaded phone call came, been postponed. Bugga

  18. Just heard Josh with support from Cormann give his ‘economic statement’.. Josh probably set a new personal best in the number of porkies per minute.

  19. I’ve been looking at the transcript of FauxMo’s non-address to the NPC and I get the distinct timpression his aim was to just keep blathering rubbish to run down the time and avoid answering as many questions as possible. He doesn’t seem to have given a straight, honest answer to anything.

  20. OMG!!
    Bill’s speech from Blacktown is awesome… using the ‘men and women of Australia..’ & ‘women & men of Australia’ phrase.. the whole speech is so rousing I can hear Gough cheering from his grave. And Little Patie is there too!

    • It was terrific!

      I hoped to post a video, but the live feed to Facebook cut out at 19 minutes in, mid-sentence, just as Bill was getting going and Labor has so far not provided a complete version. I think it was Labor’s equipment failing, it has happened before in the last week.

      I had to watch the rest on the ABC. Even Greg Jennett was impressed!

  21. Just had a bit of a look at how the Newspoll seat polling results are looking. I think we might have a rogue at Forde. Looking at the results of the last election, the LNP had 37% PV, with ON at a rather high 17%. Even so, and with a Katter and a Family First taking up a further 6%, the LNP 2PP was only 51% This poll has seen a remarkably similar distribution (LNP and ALP pretty much exactly the same), with Palmer mopping up a lot of a RWNJ vote it seems. But that’s supposed to wash out to 53-47 2PP. ?? This seat, as much as anything, points up the flaws with the revised allocation of preferences by Newspoll. It’s skewing to the right by anything up to 2%.

    Every other seat so far has swung to the ALP, the Victorian ones quite savagely, the NSW ones more moderately. You’d be mad to take seat polling like this as gospel, but it does give an overall impression of Queensland either holding or slipping slightly from the Coalition, New South Wales showing a clear but not emphatic swing to the ALP, and Victoria showing a massive swing.

    • Not so sure how Flynn’s going (albeit is on Labor’s wish list), but Forde, according to an ALP volunteer posting at PB is firmly in the bag. He said the rival LNP people have all but given up on saving it.

    • Yeah, Galaxy (it’s Galaxy, not Newspoll, another error I’ve made there) has the seat polling for Forde at dead even, a slight swing to the ALP. The general feeling that there’s not a lot to take from these polls, they look a bit, let’s say, convenient – inasmuch as they’re painting the rosiest picture possible for the Coalition, and may have been cherry-picked for effect. Who knows? We do know that single-seat polling is unreliable at best.

      I’ve noted that, nominally, the ALP are currently holding 72 seats after redistribution. All they really need to do is hold on to their own and pick up four here and there and they’re home. Minority government would be a doddle if they picked up just two seats. So the bar for success is set pretty low. Herbert – ALP’s most marginal seat – has shown no particular movement in the seat poll that’s just come in. The next two closest are in Victoria, they’re safe. Cowan in WA is next. I think the 72 currently held are safe. Current swings could net anything up to maybe 13 seats. There could be the odd surprise beyond that.

      Given the absolute armchair ride Morrison’s been give – well, let’s face it, any Liberal leader would have been given the exact same armchair ride, it’s the default press gallery position – Labor have done excellently. Negotiating an election campaign for Shorten is the equivalent of tiptoeing through landmines as they’re being laid down ahead of him. The system is set up for him to fail, it’s his triumph that he hasn’t, for getting on six years now. The political press has the attitude of, “Well, if you’re still standing after everything we’ve thrown at you, good on you, you’ve earnt it.” Grudging acknowledgement of his competence, it’s about the best we can expect of them.

      Just one more day of this. Good.

  22. You might like this – it’s by a former Pentecostal pastor who knows what she’s talking about.

    Six Things Australia’s Pentecostal Prime Minister Actually Believes
    View at Medium.com

    All six point to mental instability and drug addiction – amphetamines is my guess. (I think I’ve mentioned FauxMo’s likely addiction before.)

    His god speaking to him personally – we all know what hearing voices in your head means. Most people take medication to help them deal with it, FauxMo believes it’s his god yammering in his ear. Hallucinations are a sign of addiction to speed.

    Foretelling the future – if he really can do that then he knows he’s going to lose the election. Delusions and paranoia are symptoms of amphetamine addiction.

    Speaking in tongues – today’s address seems a good example of that, as do many of his past splutterings. I think we will see a prime example of this “divine gift” during his concession speech on Saturday – if he has the guts to make one. I’m still of the opinion we will see a re-enactment of Governor Bligh being dragged out from under his bed by the NSW Corps.

    Being taken over by some god or other, to the point where one shakes, cries or falls to the ground – see above comment. Shaking and falling over are also symptoms of advanced drug addiction.

    Healing people by touch – I see no evidence of this ever happening for FauxMo, not even whatever dark god he worships has been able to heal the rifts in the Liberal Party.

    Spiritual forces sending him more money – he stands to take a whopping huge pay cut on Saturday, so it seems even his god has given up on him.

    Bonus symptoms –

    The other day some journalist asked FauxMo where he gets his energy. It’s pretty obvious, isn’t it. He’s drugged to the eyeballs, pumped up on speed. Today there was a closeup taken during his NPC speech, he was sweating heavily under his makeup, and that makeup was really plastered on.

    The hyperventilating speech, the non-stop motor-mouth blabbering, the sweating, the crazy, staring eyes, the euphoria shown in his constant “How good is ….” outbursts, even his excessive campaign-trail drinking are all symptoms of addiction to amphetamines. One or two on their own could be dismissed as coincidence, but when you see multiple symptoms laying out at the same time it really makes you wonder.


  23. Can someone help me out here, I’m too tired to look it up, even if I knew where. We are watching the project. They just had PVO on saying LaTrobe is a Labor seat. I thought it was a lnp, jason wood. I have got myself very confused.

  24. Just heard on 720 Perth

    Bob Hawke has passed away.

    Haven’t seen anything on abc website.

  25. Just appeared on abc web page –

    —BREAKING NEWS Bob Hawke, Australia’s 23rd prime minister and former Labor Party leader, has died aged 89—

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