2019 Federal Election: Climate Change and the Rise of Independents & Minor Parties

Longtime Pubster Vote1Julia is the author of this thread, which is complementary to Gippsland Laborite’s series, focusing as it does on minor party/independent candidates who pose a serious threat to sitting MPs. Thank you, V1J, and I hope your health continues to improve.

The number one issue in this election is Climate Change. This will be the undoing of the COALition ending in a landslide defeat. I believe that the most distinguishing result of this election will be the rise of Independents and Minor Parties in the once held safe conservative seats both in the country and the city.

I have compiled a Table listing the seats where the Independents and Minor Parties are in serious contention of unseating sitting MPs (possibly ending up with 12 to 15 seats).

131 thoughts on “2019 Federal Election: Climate Change and the Rise of Independents & Minor Parties

  1. I thought it strange that Nikki Savva of all people gave the preamble for the Shorten interview.

    Leigh started with “Nikki Savva said …” Bill: “She’s a conservative and had five goes at me.” Leigh did not pursue.

  2. E-mail from Bill

    It is with a heavy heart that I write to you about the passing of Bob Hawke, Australia’s 23rd Prime Minister.

    The Australian people loved Bob because they knew Bob loved them, this was true to the very end.

    With his passing, the labour movement salutes our greatest son, the Labor Party gives thanks for the life of our longest-serving Prime Minister and Australians everywhere remember and honour a man who gave so much to the country and people he cared for so deeply.

    In coming days and weeks our nation will give its tribute to a leader and statesman who inspired such profound affection and admiration, such loyalty and love among so many.

    We will remember and revisit the images we know so well.

    Bob with microphone or megaphone in one hand, the other moving in time with his words, rallying, inspiring and delighting a crowd.

    Bob with head cocked, one hand grasping his earlobe, listening respectfully to an Aboriginal elder, a captain of industry, laughing with an American President or charming a local parent out doing their shopping.

    Maybe in the stands, eyes fixed on the track, creased and folded form guide in hand, ticking off another winner.

    Or in that iconic jacket, mouth open with laughter, dodging the beer and champagne, giving his Prime Ministerial blessing to a national sickie.

    Those images will always be with us, the words to accompany them will pour in from across the country and around the world.

    But the most powerful and enduring tributes to Bob Hawke are not words or pictures, they are found all around us.

    World-class universities, where places are earned on merit not purchased by privilege.

    Children from working-class families who finish school. Less than 3 in 10 kids did that when Bob came to office, 8 in 10 when he left.

    A modern, outward-looking, competitive economy, built around the principle that working and middle class people must be fairly rewarded for their efforts.

    A system dedicated to the idea that growth is stronger when it is shared, when wages and living standards rise and a generous safety net catches those who fall on hard times.

    A country where tourists and locals alike share the wonders of the Daintree, or ride the rapids of the Franklin.

    An Australia at home in Asia, a voice heard and respected in the councils of the world.

    A country that steps up and plays its part, keeping peace in the Middle East, keeping Antarctica safe for science.

    Every Australian carries a monument to Bob Hawke with them, their Medicare card. A green-and-gold promise that the health of any one of us, matters to all of us.

    As President of the ACTU, Bob was the champion of unpopular causes:

    The right of unions to organise and bargain.
    Opposing French nuclear testing in the Pacific.
    Opposing the war in Vietnam.
    Opposing Apartheid and defending Nelson Mandela, when conservatives were branding him a terrorist.

    He was a leader of conviction – and a builder of consensus. But for Bob, consensus and co-operation never meant pursuing the lowest common denominator.

    Bringing the country together never meant presenting people with the soft option, or taking the nation down the low road or the lazy path of least resistance.

    Bob and the brilliant cabinet he chaired so assuredly didn’t demand consensus or capitulate to it, they built it: through leadership, through persuasion, through Bob’s special connection with the Australian people that he nurtured and treasured.

    After he left politics, Bob’s innate appreciation for Australians’ aspirations made him a wonderful source of advice and inspiration for his successors.

    He was always generous with his time, and well into his ninth decade, remained a star performer at every Labor gathering he attended. No night was complete without his rendition of “Solidarity Forever”.

    In Australian history, in Australian politics, there will always be B.H. and A.H: Before Hawke and After Hawke.

    After Hawke, we were a different country.

    A kinder, better, bigger and bolder country.

    His brilliant, incomparable partnership with Paul Keating transformed our economy.

    His deep friendship and co-operation with Bill Kelty gave us the national Accord and the social wage.

    In our region, conscientiously, sensitively and with deep humility, he engaged the leaders and people of Asia.

    He knew that Australia’s future depended on making peace with our past, through true and lasting Reconciliation with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

    And he understood the duty we all have to preserve our natural heritage, to protect the environmental treasures we hold on trust for future generations.

    Of course, to honour Bob is to pay tribute to Blanche, his chronicler, companion, confidante and champion. Their love for each other shone through everything.

    Blanche is in our hearts today, so too are Bob’s children, Sue, Stephen, Rosslyn, his stepson Louis and his grandchildren.

    At our Labor launch I told Bob we loved him, I promised we would win for him. I said the same to him the next day at his home, when I visited.

    It was Monday 6 May, the Sydney sun was out, that famous silver mane, now snow-white. Cigar in hand, strawberry milkshake on the table, the hefty bulk of his dictionary holding down the day’s cryptic crossword.

    I gave the man who inspired me to go into politics a gentle hug, I tried to tell him what he meant to me, what he meant to all of us.

    I couldn’t quite find the right words, few of us can, when we’re face-to-face with our heroes.

    But Bob knew.

    He knew what he meant to Australia, he knew what he had achieved for the country.

    He knew he was loved, right to the end.

    We honour him.

    We will remember him.

    In solidarity, forever.

    May he rest in peace.

    – Bill

  3. What a bloody shame that The Silver Bodgie couldn’t hold out till after Saturday. He would have been ecstatic to see Labor smash the rabble at this election.

    Or else he may have thought that passing on on almost the eve of the election might just give Labor a little bit more of that much needed spark to help get it over the line.

    Vale Bob and go you good thing Bill.

  4. We are devastated. Bob Hawke was the first leader that I was really aware of, (I’m a late comer to politics, always voted Labor, but paid absolutely no attention until 2004ish). Sad he was unable to hang in for another two days to, hopefully, see another Labor win.

  5. tlbd

    Thank you for clearing up the LaTrobe thing for me, PVO is supposed to teach politics at some university, and doesn’t know who are in what seats. How badly informed must his students be?

  6. I can’t imagine weeping at the death of any other polititian, but here I am… Bob was so much more than than a polititian… a rough ’round the edges statesman and visionary reformer, just as comfortable with royalty & presidents, as he was skulling a beer at the cricket to the delight of the crowd.
    I started my APS career in ’85 in the midst of Labor’s massive reform agenda championed by Hawkie & his Ministers and this solidified my lefty leanings into a rock solid belief that govt can and should be a force for the greater good, and achieving this by ensuring inclusiveness & opportunity for all, no-one is left behind or left out.
    The ALP in recent years has not always seemed like it still had that aim, but in the couple of years as the ALP rolled out progressive policies and talked about equality I started to allow myself a glimmer of hope… today at work as I listened to Bill’s speech on my headphones I had to control myself as I wanted to join the applause & cheering. I was so heartened today by Bill’s rousing cry to vote for change… I wonder if Bob faded away listening to Bill’s speech.. I hope so as he would have drifted off with a smile..
    Vale Hawkie, & thanks for bringing bringing back the PM’s 11 cricket match as without it I would not have met Dennis Lillee!

  7. An awesome list of achievements over the course of Bob’s career both with the union movement and as PM. Bob went on into the early 90s as arguably the best modern PM we’ve had.

    I’m getting old now, but consider myself lucky to have grown to adulthood to experience a Renaissance in the labour movement in the 60s, after it had hone through a moribund period after the split in the mid-50s. In the 60s many were looking at our place in the world and questioning where it was all headed. It was an age noted for charismatic leaders, starting with John Kennedy and Martin Luther King in the US and Pierre Trudeau in Canada.

    In Australia we had Don Dunstan and Gough Whitlam challenging the Labor Party, and Bob Hawke doing something similar in the trade union movement. All three brought a special charisma and appeal to everything they did, reaching a peak in the early 70s.

    Alas, all have now passed on, but leaving great legacies to inspire others

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers – and vale Bob Hawke, a great Australian.

    The papers are full of Hawke tributes but I will only post one, a nice contribution from Tony Wright.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/bob-hawke-the-leader-with-the-common-touch-fought-to-the-end-for-another-labor-government-20190516-p51o8s.html
    But as Australia mourned the death of its 23rd prime minister, Tony Abbott drew strong criticism for striking a deeply political tone in his own tribute to Bob Hawke.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/16/pea-for-a-heart-tony-abbott-criticised-over-partisan-tribute-to-bob-hawke
    Sam Maiden puts her two bob’s worth in on Abbott’s “tribute”.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/05/16/tony-abbott-botches-attempted-tribute-to-labor-icon-bob-hawke/
    Peter Hartcher looks at the latest Ipsos result and sees a hesitancy in people voting Labor in.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/broccoli-or-brussels-sprouts-voters-struggle-with-morrison-and-shorten-20190516-p51o7j.html
    The Guardian’s editorial says Australia cannot afford three more years of policy held hostage to the hard right of the Liberal party.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/16/guardian-view-australian-election-vote-climate-emergency
    The Coalition’s tactics have paid dividends, according to the election-eve Ipsos poll, but the results need to be treated with the utmost care,\says David Crowe.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/ipsos-poll-has-one-real-danger-sign-for-bill-shorten-20190516-p51o6m.html
    Michelle Grattan describes how Shorten channelled Gough Whitlam as he hopes that his time is coming.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-bill-channels-gough-as-he-hopes-that-his-time-is-coming-117273
    Phil Coorey begins his article today with, “Neither party has appealed to a progressive middle, which wants the environment taken seriously, along with a small-government approach to economic management. For the middle, it’s a case of having to make a choice between which one they value most.”
    https://www.outline.com/Axx2WL
    Centre Alliance and One Nation are likely to control the Senate balance of power regardless of whether Labor or the Coalition win Saturday’s election, according to an analysis by the Australia Institute. Paul Karp says there is a possibility Palmer could miss out altogether.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/16/clive-palmers-uap-could-miss-out-on-senate-seat-thinktank-says
    Economist Warwick Smith writes about mineral wealth, Clive Palmer, and the corruption of Australian politics.
    https://theconversation.com/mineral-wealth-clive-palmer-and-the-corruption-of-australian-politics-117248
    Bill Shorten has long been seen as a drag on Labor’s vote, but a decision he resisted three years ago might have set him up to be the next prime minister, writes Laura Tingle.
    https://www.outline.com/m3efkB
    Labor is increasingly confident of prevailing at Saturday’s election, with both Opposition and Coalition figures believing Bill Shorten is on track for a narrow three to four seat majority reports the AFR.
    https://www.outline.com/MaRtZF
    Paul Karp reports that the Coalition has announced a further $1.5bn in cuts to the public service to pay for its $1.4bn in election promises, a move that could reduce jobs by 3,000.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/16/coalition-plans-fresh-15bn-public-service-cuts-to-fund-election-promises
    Sally Whyte looks at the impact the efficiency dividend would have on the APS.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6128531/coalition-to-cut-15b-from-public-service-to-fund-promises/?cs=14350
    Robert Carling from the Centre for Independent Studies says that Labor’s bold tax plans are too bold.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-form-guide-to-labor-s-bold-tax-plans-and-why-they-re-too-bold-20190516-p51o2d.html
    Anthony Forsyth is a Professor of Workplace Law and contrasts the major parties’ approaches to workplace policy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/it-s-a-choice-between-status-quo-on-workplace-policy-and-big-changes-20190514-p51nav.html
    Tony Featherstone says that as more companies outsource work to freelancers, many will lack processes and controls to manage self-employed workers and be exposed to horrendous risk.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/is-your-business-ignoring-gig-economy-risks-20190515-p51nov.html
    The Grattan Institute’s Danielle Wood explains why there’s no need for renters to fear the negative gearing scare campaign.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/renters-there-s-no-need-to-fear-the-negative-gearing-scare-campaign-20190516-p51o2l.html
    The AFR reports that Macquarie says the most recent figures from the Reserve Bank of Australia indicate that between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent of all bank mortgages by value are in negative equity, but that the figure is almost certainly higher.
    https://www.outline.com/6v6Mu3
    Folau verdict aside, Labor threatens religious freedom in schools, writes a law professor in a journal of Christian thought and opinion.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/folau-verdict-aside-labor-threatens-religious-freedom-in-schools-20190516-p51nz9.html
    Extremely worrying information shows that a third of Australians surveyed in a huge global drug study said they used prescription opioids in the past year, the highest number of all countries surveyed. Globally, half of people using prescription opioids said they took them to get high.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/young-aussies-taking-opioids-at-highest-rate-in-world-survey-finds-20190516-p51o4r.html
    Challenger’s Jeremy Cooper explains how retirement savings are for spending.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/retirement-savings-are-for-spending-20190516-p51o3u.html
    Emma Koehn explains how Australia’s shopping strips and centres are being crunched by sky-high rents and the nation’s small business commissioners want to penalise landlords for empty shopfronts.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/vacancy-tax-calls-to-stop-landlords-from-keeping-shops-empty-20190516-p51o29.html
    The Coalition’s botched rollout of the National Broadband Network (NBN) has come at a staggering cost to taxpayers and the nation, leading telecommunications experts have warned before Saturday’s federal poll. The problem-plagued mixed-technology network is yet to be completed, and is running over budget at $51 billion.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2019/05/16/nbn-national-disaster/
    ASIC has stepped up its investigation of Lynas and Wesfarmers demanding the companies hand over documents about their dealings before a proposed $1.5 billion takeover of the miner was made public.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/lynas-wesfarmers-probe-deepens-as-asic-demands-documents-20190516-p51o36.html
    Nick Miller says Theresa May could have only weeks left as British Prime Minister after agreeing to set out her timetable for stepping down – following one more shot at getting her Brexit deal through Parliament in early June. Of course Boris Johnson has thrown his hat in the ring.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-end-of-may-could-come-in-june-as-unpopular-tories-confront-pm-20190517-p51o9i.html
    Martin Kettle writes that The political landscapes of Brexit Britain and Weimar Germany are scarily similar.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/16/brexit-britain-weimar-germany-far-right-democracy-contempt-politicians
    Now Trump has opened up a new front in his tech and trade battle with China writes Matthew Knott.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/donald-trump-signs-order-that-allows-us-to-ban-huawei-gear-20190516-p51nun.html
    Alabama’s abortion ban is about keeping poor women down writes Emma Brockes.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/16/alabama-abortion-ban-us-women-state-senate
    Another “Arsehole of the Week” nomination for Zanetti.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and the final round.

    Cathy Wilcox has been in good form of late.

    From Matt Golding.




    An awful contemplation from Jim Pavlidis.

    From Sean Leahy.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6r4fV1UYAEA0GV.jpf

    Alan Moir lines up Angus Taylor.

    At the polling station with Simon Letch.

    I love this one from Jon Kudelka.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/9f755b84aa0f027f0f0c78fcd6741e86?width=1024

    From the US






  9. Gazza does it again

    In politics you find them all,
    the good, the bad, the short, the tall,
    the men and women, smart or dumb,
    from every walk of life they come,
    but politics is one strange beast,
    a predator, that, once released,
    runs rampant through the gathered throng,
    corrupting both the weak and strong,
    for people can be compromised
    by politics, and, unsurprised,
    we watch as reason disappears
    and many tarnish their careers,
    but there are those we can’t forget,
    where what you see is what you get,
    and now in this election year
    we say farewell to one held dear,
    a man who truly walked the walk,
    the quite remarkable Bob Hawke.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/17/federal-campaign-2019-shorten-morrison-hawke-politics-live#comment-129128334

  10. This is very unusual. For election after election the SMH editorial has told us to keep on voting back Coalition governments or has recommended booting out Labor ones.

    Not today!

    The SMH being the SMH there has to be negative comment about Labor in general, Shorten and unions, and it’s obvious whoever wrote this editorial was very reluctant to make this recommendation, but even so, it’s a surprise. I was expecting yet another “let’s maintain the status quo” editorial.

    For the SMH, which has shown itself to be almost as rabid as the Murdoch rags in its support for Morrison and his farce of a government to come up with this positive comment on the eve of the election is a striking condemnation of the ATM government. It may not have been intended to play that way, but that’s how I see it.

    Shorten’s united team will end years of instability

    The Herald believes that above all else voters must use this election as a chance to put an end to that cycle of instability and with that in mind there is no choice but to endorse Bill Shorten and the ALP

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shorten-s-united-team-will-end-years-of-instability-20190516-p51o0r.html

  11. Want a laugh?

    Feeling depressed by Hawkie’s death and all the doom and gloom “Hanson and CA will control the Senate and Labor will barely scrape in with 3 or 4 seats” stories?

    This might fix it.

    There’s a new “machine learning algorithm” that can, allegedly, predict your gender and age just from your Twitter handle.

    http://m3.euagendas.org/

    I gave it a go and the results could hardly have been more hilarious.

    Apparently I’m a male, aged 19 -29.

    I really needed a laugh this morning, and I got one.

  12. ‘You’ve done very well, son’: Bob Hawke’s final moments with Bill Shorten

    Labor leader Bill Shorten during his last meeting with former prime minister Bob Hawke.

  13. Barrie Cassidy looks back on Hawke.
    ———————————————————————————————————–
    Barrie Cassidy on a PM who was ‘just as dedicated to forging economic accords as he was to picking winners at the track’

    It was 11 November 1986. A long flight to Perth. My first day as senior press secretary
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/16/popular-forever-the-intellectual-larrikin-that-was-bob-hawke

  14. Bob scored a very large obit. in the NYT. A sample. Opens in “igcognito”

    ………………………….Bob Hawke, Australia’s hugely popular prime minister from 1983 to 1991, who presided over wrenching changes that integrated his nation into the global economy and strengthened ties with Asia and America, died on Thursday at his home in Sydney. He was 89..

    ……………………….Rising to power as a trade union leader, Mr. Hawke led his center-left Australian Labor Party to four consecutive election victories in a tenure of nearly nine years, in which Australia emerged dramatically from relative isolation into larger roles in world trade, military cooperation with the West and partnerships with Asian neighbors……….It was a major reorientation for a prosperous, sparsely populated country of 15 million (now 25 million) that had always viewed itself as apart, and a bit above, Asian nations to the north, a continent of pleasant cities and open spaces like the Old American West that had had little to do with global defense strategies or competitive world markets. Modern realities, however, were catching up with Australia.

  15. On the Pope cartoon
    Indeed, Bill does have big shoes to fill but I think he will do it easily, he doesn’t have to do it by himself he has a fabulous team.

  16. I’m not implying for one moment that Angus Taylor has made sure one of his old mates obtained a financial benefit from the government Angus was part of. Never, ever would I imply such a thing. Not ever.

    Now the standard legal requirement for posting anything about the impeccably honest and upright Anus is done –

    Angus Taylor’s Oxford rowing mate’s company was main beneficiary of $80m water deal
    Exclusive: Energy minister went to university with the fund manager who was chief investment officer in Pacific Alliance Group
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/17/angus-taylors-oxford-rowing-mate-one-of-main-beneficiaries-of-80m-water-deal

  17. Just watched 7.30 with Bill Shorten, then watched the last bit about Bob Hawke. The only bit I’m completely confused about is the bit about Kim Beasley and Bob having blood on his hands.

    • It’s a clip from an interview with Richard Carleton, when Bob became Labor leader. Carleton accused Hawke of having “blood on your hands” because of Hayden standing down as leader.

    • Andrew Stafford’s contribution:

      Bob Hawke was a lot of things. Statesman. Drunk. Healer. Philanderer. Rhodes scholar. Ocker. Political genius. Trade unionist. Financial deregulator. Government interventionist. Reformist. Conservationist. A big-picture guy who wore an enormous bleeding heart on his sleeve. On national television and in parliament, he cried and cracked jokes and roared with laughter and, on at least one occasion, all but told Richard Carleton to fuck off. He was an authentic giant.

      Read more:
      https://www.patreon.com/posts/hawke-26873367

  18. Just ran into Kristina Keneally& Penny Wong

    KK has eye on cameras, Penny Wong is gracious

  19. So sad to hear about Bob Hawke. Sad to know he didn’t get to see the ALP victory tomorrow.

    My mum is worried that the election might be, as the sternographers and liberal PR machine of the media and ABC have it, very close.

    I don’t think so.
    And, as I tell her, neither do the betting markets (although today the favourite win has gone backwards from 81-85 seats to 76-80 seats (paying $2.50 – 2nd fav, 81-85 paying $3, 86-90 ~$3.5 – 71to75 is a long $6 to $7)

    Having done the odd shopping centre hand out for David Smith (ALP, Bean) and wife has done a couple pre-poll booths that I got to at the end, I think the mood has been very good. Although hard to tell from a safe ALP seat, I think it was much better than 2016. We get on well with the Greens and there’s a strong feeling between the volunteers and most of the people we meet that this mob MUST go.

    The volunteers for the nasty party are not enthusiatic and very reluctant to speak (I think I’m civil and friendly even if I think they are nasty. I’d kill to know their motivation for these people are not of the wealth to benefit from an LNP government and will never be – I try to ask, but have failed to get a satisfactory answer). The only pre-poll HTV for Palmer wasn’t interested in politics and didn’t want to engage says the wife and we assume was paid (or offered money he many never receive more likely).

    I am confident it’s going to be a good night tomorrow.
    I am somewhat optimistic it may be even better for Labor than betting market has it.

  20. Anus will be very worried just about now; Hume is not necessarily done and dusted and , with the added bonus of a Federal ICAC making him think his haemorrhoids are playing up , he’ll be a bet discombobulated.
    I lurk about ‘The Land’ Facebook page and a theme seems to have emerged in the country that Bill will take all their ‘hard-earned’ and ship it off to the UN (shades of MAGA lunacy?)
    I take a bit of guilty pleasure posting the betting odds and various sundry inflammatory material on my timeline just because I know a few of ‘The Land’ poster types made the unfortunate mistake of asking to be my Facebook friend (I resolutely refuse to ask anyone myself).
    Looking forward to tomorrow night [although we will be at Raiders(my team) v Bunnies(HI’s team) game] and will have phone well and truely busy keeping an eye on things.
    I do remember the night when Rudd and Labor won and we were at the Sydney Entertainment Centre watching School Spec. Faces were lit up throughout the performance with phone screens of election tragics.

    • joe
      On the bright side it was nice hearing a tone of gloomy resignation to defeat in his monologue. Oh now he is on to Folau, time to post this from Carlton

      Mike Carlton
      @MikeCarlton01
      2h2 hours ago

      Put it this way: you’re running a posh patisserie in Toorak or Paddington. Do you want one of your employees standing out front shouting to the customers that gays, drunks and fornicators are going to hell ? No. Same with Australian Rugby and Folau. End of story.

  21. Election thread quick and I am entertaing 5 nieces and nephews so hopefully some of our wonderful mods can fix it up otherwise ill fix it up tomorrow I hope if these Kids dont Kill me.

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