Waiting for Wentworth

Current make-up of the House of Representatives

Liberal 44 + LNP 21 + National 10 = 75

Labor 69

Bandt + Katter + McGowan + Sharkie + Wilkie = 5

And then there is Wentworth

Under starter’s orders are

Candidate Name Party
CALLANAN Robert Katter’s Australian Party
KANAK Dominic Wy The Greens
HIGSON, Shayne Voluntary Euthanasia Party
GEORGANTIS, Steven Australian People’s Party
MURRAY, Tim Labor
FORSYTH, Ben Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party
ROBINSON, Tony Australian Liberty Alliance
GUNNING, Samuel Joseph Liberal Democrats
SHARMA, Dave Liberal
VITHOULKAS, Angela Independent
DOYLE, Deb Animal Justice Party
LEONG, Andrea Science Party
HEATH, Licia Independent
KELDOULIS, Barry The Arts Party
PHELPS, Kerryn Independent
DUNNE, Kay Sustainable Australia

The ABC has all the details https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wentworth-by-election-2018/

Antony Green’s take last night on the outcome was that, on primaries and after the distribution of preferences from the “minor” players, Sharma would finish first and Phelps and Murray second or third. If Phelps finished second she would get in on Labor preferences. If Murray finished second then who knows.

If Sharma were to lose then the L/NP would only have 75 seats and then they would have problems on any vote requiring an absolute majority to get passed.



368 thoughts on “Waiting for Wentworth

  1. So then. Guess that’s step 1 of getting this shithouse government out of power.

    Step 2 would be Phelps hopefully voting to send Dutton to the High Court, and not instead voting for a confidence and supply agreement.

  2. So the millions of dollars promised to Bronte surf club didn’t work – Bronte had one of the biggest swings against the Liberals.

    The pandering to the Jewish voters of Wentworth didn’t work, all it cost us was our international reputation and possibly a FTA with Indonesia, worth billions in exports.

    The lies about only the Libs being able to provide stable government (what a huge joke that was) and the economy being ruined if anyone but Sharma was elected didn’t work either, voters refused to believe them.

    A moderately intelligent PM would have taken us to a snap election as soon as he/she became leader. The spin could have been something about saving taxpayers money by holding an immediate full election rather than going for an immediate by-election followed by a full election nest year.

    ScumMo proved he is totally stupid by going for the by-election option.

    Now he knows the government is set to lose the next election no matter what he does, says or promises, no matter what threats he makes and what lies he tells. He’s just prolonging the death throes of his farce of a government. The longer he hangs on the worse things will get for him

    I’ll enjoy watching him swinging in the breeze like a rotting corpse, but it’s not good for the nation, not good for the economy, not good for Australia’s international reputation to have this drag on for another six months.

    Just call an election now, ScumMo, and let the voters put your government out of its misery.

  3. I can’t wait to see the new Coalition lineup, led by Mme Mesothelioma, ably seconded by The Undead Beetrooter.

    Coming to you sometime in the next fortnight or so.

  4. I wish I could feel the same of them giving it in for the greater good of the country, but I can’t.

    Looking at today’s Liberal Party, I see the same people in the USA who wear the “I’d rather be Russian than Democrat” t-shirt, and see them wearing “I’d rather be Fascist than Labor” t-shirts.

    It’s too far polarized to work. And I don’t see any way it can improve from here.

  5. At that Lib concession speech Morrison mentioned he just dashed over from the Invictus Games and ‘not wanting to politicise the Invictus Games’, but the spirit of Invictus is never giving up wtte, which meant the scum did politicise the Game. I hope the Palace gives him a rocket up the arske. No wonder Harry hardly spoke to him on that climb!

  6. The Libs in Wentworth are definitely ‘EX” .Well, for the moment . Lol of the night was the cruelty of Speers to Laundy . Speers asked Laundy if there were, at that stage, any seats with a swing of less than 20 %. Poor Craig had to admit to there being no seat with a swing less than 20%.

  7. Kaffeeklatscher,

    Delighted to learn that. Because the Libs and Nats, in my extremely humble view, have become the cane toads of Oz politics.

  8. Two years trying to register with WordPress to allow me to post comment to The Pub. Used to post with user name Barry J. Have I finally succeeded!

  9. Those demands are further into the thread.

    There’s not going to be any need to guarantee supply now. The major appropriations bills (that’s what “supply” is) were passed immediately after the last budget was handed down and there will just be a few more minor appropriations bills before the next budget, whenever that might be. Labor never votes against the important appropriations bills anyway, so it doesn’t matter if Katter guarantees “supply” or not.

    People who keep yammering on about Labor needing to refuse “supply” to bring down the government don’t know what they are talking about.

    Confidence is the big thing now. There is bound to be a motion of no confidence next week. Will it get up? Who knows.

  10. He doesn’t have a clue, does he?

    Conceding defeat for the Liberal candidate, Dave Sharma, in Double Bay, the prime minister said when he took the Liberal leadership eight weeks ago he knew there would be “tough days and there would be great days”.

    Morrison characterised Saturday night as “a tough day” but declared “the great days are coming”.


  11. Part 6 of my U.S. Midterms guide: The Deep South (Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas)

    The only Senate races in this area are the two races in Mississippi. For the seat that is scheduled to be up for election this year, incumbent Republican Senator Roger Wicker will be easily re-elected. In addition there is a special election being held for the other senate to fill out the rest of former Republican Senator Thad Cochran’s term after he resigned for health reasons earlier this year. For this seat an all party primary will be held on election day with a runoff, if required, to be held on the 27th of November. Polls for the primary are showing a tight race between appointed Republican Senator Cindy Hyde Smith and Democratic Candidate Mike Espy, who was Secretary of Agriculture in the Clinton Administration, with far right republican Chris McDaniel coming in third. If all of their stars align, like they did in Alabama last year, the Democrats could have a chance but it is very much one of the longest of long shots.

    House of Representatives
    Due to gerrymandering all the Republican-held seats are very safe and the Democrats are limited to one very safe seat in each of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.

    Incumbent Republican governors Kay Ivey in Alabama and Asa Hutchinson in Arkansas will be easily reelected.

    State Legislatures
    Alabama House of Representatives (all 105 seats up for election): Republicans: 72 seats, Democrats: 32 seats with one vacancy. Democrats need to gain 21 seats to win control.
    Alabama State Senate (all 35 seats up for election): Republicans: 26 seats, Democrats: 8 seats, Independent: 1 seat. Democrats need to gain 10 seats to win control.

    Arkansas House of Representatives (all 100 seats up for election): Republicans: 76 seats, Democrats: 24 seats. Democrats need to gain 27 seats to win control.
    Arkansas State Senate (18 of 35 seats up for election): Republicans 25 seats, Democrats 9 seats with 1 vacant. Not mathematically possible for Democrats to win control (need nine seats but only contesting 8 of the 15 republican-held seats up for election)

    Ballot Measures
    In Alabama there is a ballot measure that would permit the display of the ten commandments on public property while another would amend the state constitution to recognise rights of unborn children and to state that no provisions provide a right to abortions. No polls have been conducted for either of these measures

    In Arkansas one ballot measure would require voters to provide ID before being allowed to vote while another would raise the state’s minimum wage to $11 per hour by 2022. Polls done in may suggest that voters are in favour of both these measures by wide margins.

  12. Very strange to be contacted by several people over the course of the evening to “share the good news” with me about Dr Phelps *g* One or two of them I expected. Not so much the others, though. Obviously there was/is more riding on this by-election across the country than it seems the Morrison government was expecting.

    I wonder what would be the response of an Australian ‘Bill Mahar’ to this result?!

  13. Iran sent Hezbollah advanced weapons to turn rockets into precision missiles, new flight data suggests

    Last month, at his address at the U.N. General Assembly in New York, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shared photos of what he said were three Hezbollah “secret sites” near Beirut’s international airport, locations where the GPS components from Tehran were being assembled to turn the rockets into precision-guided missiles capable of striking deep inside Israel “within an accuracy of 10 meters (11 yards).”


    The US have been using these Joint Direct Munitions for more than 20 years, plenty of time for someone to steal one from an overseas base or strip one off an exploded or “dud” bomb behind enemy lines. It will be interesting to find out the source of the original that Iran is now mass producing and bolting on to dumb bombs to make them “smart bombs” at a cost of nearly $25 grand each. Israel will be thinking twice about firing missiles at Lebanon now that Hezbollah have “smarter bombs”.

  14. Fat guy gets into a fist fight with 15 guys and come out of it the worst for wear. One of the 15 guys just happens to have a bone saw in his back pocket and President Donald Duck says, “That sounds credible!”

  15. https://twitter.com/rtehrani/status/1053372730618322944

    Every year Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the Valdai Economic Forum. And each year his talk is important. Putin isn’t one to mince words on important issues.

    With tensions between Russia and the West reaching Cold War levels, Valdai represented the first time we’ve heard Putin speak in a long-form discussion since Helsinki and the events thereafter — IL-20, Khashoggi, etc.

    So, this talk is worth everyone’s time. And when I say everyone’s I mean every single person who could be affected by the breakdown of the U.S. political system and how that spills over onto Russia’s shores.

    In other words, pretty much everyone on the planet.

    Because what Putin did at Valdai was to lay down the new rules of conduct in geopolitical affairs. He put the U.S. and European oligarchs I call The Davos Crowd on notice.

    There is a limit to your provocations and attempts to undermine Russia. So don’t cross that line.


  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. What a rout!

    David Crowe says that this was a swift and savage message to Scott Morrison that puts him in a diabolical position in Parliament and sets him on course for catastrophe at the next election.
    Tony Wright says those on the hunt for a scapegoat should start with Peter Dutton.
    Not holding back, Katharine Murphy opines that the Wentworth byelection isn’t just a loss for the Liberals. It’s a disaster she says.
    Michelle Grattan says that the byelection fiasco will re-open fractures in the government and threatens a damaging burst of infighting between Liberal conservatives and moderates.
    The Australian’s Brad Norrington says the Wentworth by-election result smells like one just before a change of government. Bill Shorten’s popularity doesn’t matter now. He says Morrison has lost his first test.
    Phil Coorey tells us about the punishment meted out in Wentworth.
    Paula Matthewson has her say on the ballot box bludgeoning delivered to Morrison and his government.
    Tess Lawrence wrote yesterday that the KKKoalition has signed its own death warrant.
    Alexandra Smith reckons Marise Payne’s husband is lining himself up for a tilt at Gladys’s job. But it’s fraught with danger she says.
    Jacqui Maley writes that most voters, particularly urban ones, will have watched with nauseated incredulity as speculation about the Nationals’ leadership mounted this week and she goes into the questions that remain regarding Joyce.
    Is there a place for waste-to-energy schemes on Australia?
    In Smith declares that when it comes to Manus and Nauru enough is enough.
    Peter FitzSimons tells us what the royal visit really says about Australia.
    In a rather angry contribution Matt Wade explains how the boom is long gone but it doesn’t mean Australia’s anxiety about housing affordability has disappeared.
    Ian Warden says all Australian palefaces should be grateful to Senator Hanson for her motion and then for her inarticulate but passionate defence of it next day on one of those breakfast TV shows that get simple-minded viewers’ days off to such a sparkling start.
    Australia’s National Broadband Network has been problematic for too long, our own Government interfering with the common good, writes Paul Budde.
    The Washington Post’s Paul Parhi warns us why the saga of missing journalist Jamal Khashoggi resonates with all of us.
    The Australian government has decided it is “no longer appropriate” to attend a summit in Saudi Arabia in light of the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
    Simon Tisdall writes that Miss Marple would demolish in minutes the Saudi story of a fistfight gone wrong.
    Timothy Boyle is far from impressed with the American influence on sport in Australia.
    eBay has accused Amazon of using “illegal” tactics to poach sellers using eBay’s very own database against them, puzzling analysts who claim the juvenile feud will have little impact on where consumers choose to shop.
    Tell me this is not true!
    And for today’s “Arsehole of the WeeK” nomination we have . . .

    Cartoon Corner

    Mark David with another trophy for Morrison.

    Peter Broelman in Wentworth.

    Zanetti with Morrison’s last gasp in Wentworth.

    A couple of good ones from Matt Golding.

    A few more in here.

  17. Oh what a beautiful morning, Oh what a beautiful day.

    BK, again a great set of links. You can feel the disappointment in the opinion pieces about last night. The msm aren’t going to face up to this mob, even after the huge rout. Poor Bill, he didn’t even try to rally for Labor. What sort of leader does that make him? I know, lets concentrate on Kill Bill instead of admitting lnp have stuffed up big time.

  18. We know about leadership rumours, we’ve heard more than enough about Labor recently and we are probably in for a lot more following Shorten’s no-show in Wentworth. The whole result will be twisted into “a major blow for Bill Shorten”, there were hints of that last night. The only thing that will force that out of the news is yet another Liberal leadership challenge. The rumours have already started.

    Surely Julie Bishop isn’t going to challenge for the leadership this week. It would be utter madness.

    The rumour about the Bishop challenge comes from a couple of tweets by a person who claims to have inside information, someone who says their rumours are always right. Believe that if you want. I prefer a bit more proof than some other tweeter replying “I’ve been told the same by a reliable source”.

    I said something a while ago about the final season of “Rake” closely resembling the current situation in Canberra, which I thought was weird because it had been filmed before Turnbull was knifed.

    For those who missed it, the series included several changes of PM.

    Surely we aren’t going to have a situation where we start referring to “this week’s prime minister”.

    Jules would be nuts to challenge. If she really does want to be leader then she would be better off waiting until the inevitable election loss. Better to be LOTO with a chance of rebuilding the party, as Shorten has done, than to be the leader who takes the party to a whopping huge defeat.

    She must be smart enough to realise it’s not the leader du jour that is the problem, it’s this government’s mean, nasty treatment of anyone who is not a millionaire and their total lack of policies. Changing the leader to a ditz who favours Armani outfits and $1500 shoes isn’t going to improve the polling at all. It might give us some interesting preferred PM numbers, but those results are meaningless and are easily manipulated by respondents who just want to make mischief. Has no-one ever thought Labor voters might well have been saying they prefer whatever Lib as PM just to keep the leadership circus going? I’ve thought of doing it, but I couldn’t bring myself to betray Shorten like that.

    Remember when the polls told us everyone wanted Turnbull as PM so he knifed Abbott and took over? Didn’t that change work out well for the Libs. The same thing will happen if the allegedly “popular” Jules becomes leader next week, or next month, or whenever she is allegedly planning that challenge.

    The instability in the government might be very amusing to Labor voters but it is also a serious problem. Thanks to the machinations in the Liberal party room Australia is now a laughing stock internationally. Let’s face it, there is no-one in the ranks who would be any better as PM than the failures the Libs have already tried. The party room contains only duds and imbeciles.

    • “Jules would be nuts to challenge. If she really does want to be leader then she would be better off waiting until the inevitable election loss. Better to be LOTO with a chance of rebuilding the party, as Shorten has done, than to be the leader who takes the party to a whopping huge defeat.”

      I think Bishsop wouldn’t mind challenging even if it were for just a moment of glory. As LOTO, I can’t imagine her rebuilding her party as Shorten seems to have done. Bishop is a wrecker, not a builder. So why not take the prize if it’s offered. Even if they lose the election, it won’t be her fault as the damage would already have been done. Does it make sense?

  19. A Sunday amusement….perhaps?

    “. . . This old couple..Now we get a few curious people come to these workshops, some tree-change people who want to grow their own..some for company and a day out…we got one couple who grew lilliums for show…they moved out here to stop other ‘breeders” from stealing their bulbs and such..very jealously competitive is the flower showing fraternity….We had a couple of miniature horse breeders once…but I won’t go there!

    This old couple turned up, John and Helen…never seen them before..said they were up visiting some rellies and thought they’d come see ( we advertise in our newsletter). A nice couple, smartly if a tad conservatively dressed, sharp-pressed slacks and trousers, cardi’ and collar shirt …snug-fitted slip-on sandles..a lot of pastel shades..you know ; the “eastern suburbs grandparents look”. . .”


  20. Bishop’s no good. She’s at her very worst when she steps up to the dispatch box to answer ALP questions. Her snide, vindictive qualities come to the fore and she comes across as very unlikeable. Especially so when she’s fielding questions from female MPs. That’s what she’d be mostly required to do as PM. Plus she doesn’t think very quickly on her feet. She’s actually quite good at informing the house regarding international developments, that’s when she looks at her most competent, when she has prepared, coherent information to convey.. But a PM is mostly required to fend off attacks from across the benches, which brings out her worst side.

    If they do turn to her, it would be an admission that they’re stuffed. Personally, I think turning to Morrison already established that. He was a ‘least worst option’ at a time when there wasn’t a good option. Bishop’s a ‘least worst option’ after Morrison, which is really plumbing the depths.


    Regarding the vote in Wentworth: there’s some speculation that Sharma could still pull this one off on postals. For mine, the result matters far less than the swing. We’re not far from an election now, and Parliament will be on a break for a lot of it, so it’s not as if having an independent or a Liberal filling that spot is going to make a substantial difference. Even the way things are the Coalition would get most of their legislation past the lower house, they’ve got enough sympathetic ears on the cross-benches. This is more about the optics. The only way this could have looked good for the current government was if Sharma won comfortably. It would be symbolic if he loses (as he probably will), but that’s about the measure of it.

    • I reckon Bishop would make an awful Prime Minister but it’s in the Liberal DNA to elect a woman to carry the responsibility of the inevitable electoral wipeout at the next election. I reckon (from no knowledge) that people are getting concerned that Morrison’s Pentecostal religion is influencing his policy making and that its counter to their interests.

      If offered the Prime Ministership Julie Bishop will take it so she can leave Parliament on a larger pension and more perks.

    • I think the only reason the Libs would put Bishop in as PM would be to kill off the ambitions of other potential females in the party. They would blame an election loss on Jules being female and would then refuse to allow another female leader for decades.

      If her ego is as big as I think it is then she’d grab any chance to be leader.

      She would be hopeless, but she would get that $500,000 salary for a few months and as Billie says, she would retire on a bigger pension and have all the extras like a taxpayer funded office, lots of free travel, whatever.

      Don’t forget, while the MSM keeps on telling us how competent Jules has been as foreign minister it’s really her staff who are the competent ones. They write her speeches, even the ones she gives in response to dixers in QT. When she speaks off the cuff she makes dreadful gaffes.

      Also don’t forget she was so appallingly inept as Turnbull’s shadow treasurer in 2008/09 that her colleagues begged Turnbull to get rid of her. She left that position after only a few months and that included the long summer break. She was replaced by Joe Hockey, that would have been a huge insult for her.

  21. Has any one else noticed that Independents since 2000 are conservative politicians disaffected by the current LNP?

    Do you think that as the middle class has lost its wealth and slides toward poverty, due to “trickle down economics”, that the LNP has become more right wing crossing boundaries progressive voters won’t cross.

    In the 1960s people on salary voted Liberal because they believed Ming was protecting their interests. After a decade of wage stagnation in the 1960s the “It’s Time” rallying cry from Gough Whitlam shifted many families from Liberal to Labor.

    I doorknocked 100+ homes in a very nice part of Pakenham yesterday and there were 10 hostile home owners and 30 very enthusiastic home owners. Previous week in a poor part of Mordialloc the reception was more muted but still less than 10% hostile.

    I reckon I am an expert on welcoming front door design, more particularly if the front door is in an alcove it looks like a mean alley if the alcove isn’t twice the width of the door and not more than 2 door widths deep. Some houses have the fortress Australia crim safe security front doors while their neighbour on the corner block has glass panels in doors and glass foyer so that a person standing at front door can see no one is home.

    • I’ve noticed. Well, I would, being in an electorate once looked after by Rob Oakeshott.

      The problem comes when an independent who won a seat because voters in their electorate were fed up with what was happening in Canberra have quite a battle to hang on to that seat. In rural electorates the National Party throws tanker-loads of money into campaigns against independents while in “safe” elections you would barely know there was an election at all.

      I’ve seen this happen in both state and federal elections. Along with the money comes vast amounts of filth for throwing at independent candidates.

      The sad thing is too many voters believe the lies and the filth and go back to their Coalition roots.

      Should Kerryn Phelps win Wentworth she will only have a few moths to prove herself. It won’t be easy for an independent to win Wentworth come the big election and the Libs will be throwing everything into getting that seat back.

    • They say that Murdoch and other business leaders are not impressed by Liberals failure to establish climate change policy or any other policy that promotes smooth government. The Liberals are deep into crony capitalism and helping their rent seeker maaates, so unless their maaates are generous donors, the Liberal Party doesn’t have the funds.
      The Cormack Foundation still won’t release funds to M. Kroger
      Gina is not known for her generosity

    • The National Party never seems to be short of money. Maybe Gina keeps them going. She was very generous to Barnaby. Maybe it’s their other mining mates. Retired Nats politicians have no problem getting lucrative spots on boards of mining and gas companies, probably gratitude for services rendered while in government.

  22. Part 7: Texas

    Surprisingly, Texas appears to be a race to watch. In August polls shows Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz in a great deal of difficulty against Democratic challenger Congressman Beto O’Rourke, the polls have widened a bit however but if they’re under sampling Hispanic voters then O’Rourke could mount a serious upset and become the first Democratic senator from Texas since Lloyd “Senator you’re no Jack Kennedy” Bentsen.

    House of Representatives
    There are three potentially competitive races in the state. In 2016 the 7th District (Suburban Houston) and the 32nd District (suburban Dallas) swung from being easy Romney wins to being narrow wins for Hillary Clinton and recent polls only have the incumbent Republicans narrowly ahead. If the democrats are having a good night then these two districts will likely flip. In the other republican-held district carried by Clinton however, the Rio Grande Valley-based 23rd district, the incumbent Republican has a fairly solid lead in the polls, probably due to his criticism of Trump.


    Incumbent Governor Greg Abbott has a solid lead in the polls and that is unlikely to change.

    State Legislature
    Texas House of Representatives (all 150 seats up for re-election): Republicans: 95 seats, Democrats: 55 seats. Democrats need to gain 21 seats to win control.
    Texas State Senate (15 of 31 seats up for election): Republicans: 21 seats, Democrats: 10 seats. Democrats need to gain 6 seats to win control.

    Ballot Measures
    None in 2018

  23. These days, I’m not particularly affected by the removal of Melbourne’s notorious level crossings, but I have been very impressed by the efficiency with which the Vic Government has removed so many horror spots in such a short time.

    What do other Pubsters think about the ALP’s proposal for their (I HOPE) next four years governing Victoria?

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