Our Fearless Leader

The ever-generous Urbanwronski has again permitted the republication of his latest analysis at The Pub. As always, many thanks.

Express Tribune

Want to know what Brexit means for Australia? Looking for a bit of leadership from the Prime Minister in response to Britain’s latest financial and economic crisis? Worried Britain will drag us all into a global recession? Don’t ask Malcolm Turnbull. He’s just the Prime Minister.

Tony Jones made the leadership mistake on Q&A when he asked Turnbull why he was soft on same-sex marriage. Why was he pushing ahead with a plebiscite even though he personally favoured a conscience vote?

Turnbull said he was “sticking by the decision the Coalition party room made under Tony Abbott.”

The PM neglected to mention that the party room was augmented with a rump of National Party members herded in at the last minute. His capitulation endorses a flaky evasion. Abbott’s move was nothing more than a cynical stalling tactic.

No update either for viewers that negotiations are currently underway to ensure that members of Turnbull’s government, should it be returned, will be able to vote against their electorates on marriage equality. Senators Eric Abetz and Cory Bernardi have already said they will do this.

As Penny Wong puts it, “Malcolm Turnbull didn’t give supporters of marriage equality a free vote before the election, but will give opponents of marriage equality a free vote after the election.”

What came next is the most amazing concession of the campaign so far. Turnbull is the type of leader to lead from behind. He’s only the boss. “I am the PM but I’m not the dictator,” he said.

“Some people like the idea of prime ministers that ignore their colleagues. I don’t agree with that. I’m a strong believer in traditional cabinet government and that means compromise.”

Now it’s Leigh Sales turn to make the same mistake on Friday’s 7:30. Not that she’s really interested. It is, after all, another opportunity for the PM to campaign. And in the end it’s all about the show. She asks him what it means. Means? He fetches up one fence-sitting word, “uncertainty.”

The U-word has bolted before he realises, to his horror, he mustn’t frighten the horses. Quickly he claims uncertainty as a virtue – and the high moral ground. Who knows where he’s headed? Give him a minute or thirty and he’ll give you the full Heisenberg uncertainty principle.

“Uncertainty …” he begins, lifting an unequivocal bottom jaw.

Sales looks worried.

It is a vintage Turnbull display. Patronise. Preach. Change gear. Hasn’t he told us to “embrace uncertainty?” he chides, smugly, channelling entrepreneur-Mal, his inner shill, hopelessly addicted to start-up technobabble and all manner of other 21st Century con-artist jargon?

We are being told off for not being quite with it. He’s gazumped us. Everyone can see how embracing his inner uncertainty has worked for Malcolm, the ditherer. Not that he is letting Ms Sales speak. She does try to get to the heart of the nonsense about embracing change by spelling out some of the changes in terms of jobs lost to technology, EU migrant workers and open markets.

I just wonder if that message that you’re making perhaps scares and alienates people?

Turnbull seizes the opportunity to riff on the word immigration in what Sales is saying.

The EU Schengen agreement permitting passport free travel is in his sights. It reminds him to sound like a toddler potty training manual,

“…how really important it is for the Government to be seen to control its borders.”

Borders secure, he’s straight off up the garden path of how his government offers stability, a brilliant economic plan of bribing rich people with tax cuts and its Liberal psychic powers.

“I think we could be looking at a period of some uncertainty. And it’s a reminder, Leigh, of a point I often make: that we are living in a period of rapid economic change, we’re living in a period of volatility and we have to embrace that. We have to recognise that we’ve got to make sure that we have stable leadership, an economic plan, stable government, so that we are able to deal with the unforeseen.

Luckily, Leigh is not up to challenging him. Turnbull’s government is one big factional in-fight. And it shows. In three years our economy has gone from best performing in the world to about fifteenth place now as a result of internal conflict and utter confusion over ideology and economic policy.

Abbott outsourced most Liberal policy to the IPA leaving himself an incoherent bag of Trump-style US clichés about small government being good for you, a dash of flag-waving rabid nationalism, authoritarianism, and the dog-whistling politics of division. Malcolm Turnbull has done his best to pick up all of these but hasn’t quite got them all in the bag. Nor will he ever while Abbott survives.

If Fizza Turnbull were to win the election, on current predictions, his is unlikely to be a big enough victory to give him the authority to command the stability which he claims to offer. Abbott’s already got his dibs on a return to cabinet as Minister of Defence. But wait, there’s more – of course.

Turnbull bangs on about his economic plan. His government’s economic plan is neither economic nor a plan but rather a magic pudding mix that serves up a rich and tasty tax cut for wealthy supporters that somehow trickles down to feed the rest of the nation by boosting productivity and prosperity in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

The evidence for stability is just as weak. Since John Howard’s shrewd brew of nationalism, neoliberalism – once called economic rationalism – and social liberalism was spoilt by WorkChoices, the Liberal Party at both state and federal level is beset by an existential crisis. Tony Abbott’s false promises to keep Labor’s social program added “untrustworthy” into whatever the Liberals stand for.

In federal politics, the Liberal Party has given the nation two prime ministers in three years, fifteen changes in the cabinet, and a smorgasbord of funding scandals. Right now the word is that the party is struggling to find the cash to fund its last furious final volley of TV attack ads. They could save their money. People will be watching the Brexit fall-out news.

None of this is followed up. Mr Stability Turnbull is left to dip into his usual grab bag of vapid platitudes, Mal-splaining, and some special name-dropping for the occasion.

OK, he says, he did contact David Cameron to “console” the British PM ahead of his resignation. But he’s not prepared to share with viewers anything that might have been said. This is a pity. Both have a fair bit in common in terms of their capture by the right wing of their divided parties.

The PM’s message is “nothing to see here,” just as his deputy, Julie Bishop has earlier advised Australians to “keep calm and carry on.” Whistle a happy tune. Don’t mention the class war.

To be fair Sales does not exactly press the Prime Minister for answers. That’s not her job. Her show’s more of a foot-rub and back-scratch than a quest for information. Hold her guest to account for his promises, his evasions and lies? She can and does ask the odd good question, but these tend to be batted away and never followed up. Or Turnbull bloviates and then answers his own question.

Friday he gets away with murder. Turnbull crows that her show had revealed Shorten to be a liar about Coalition moves to privatise Medicare. It is a ScoMo moment, a cheap and demeaning gotcha that does nothing but lower the tone and the PM’s credibility – and insults the intelligence of her audience. Does he imagine we don’t know that he set up a 20-member, $5 million privatisation taskforce which he was forced to cancel at the 11th hour?

And despite his strenuous denials, the outsourcing of Medicare payments went to federal Cabinet.

Turnbull bags Shorten for not putting his hand on his heart, a stunt Sales dredged up in the previous night’s programme straight out of the Ray Hadley 2GB playbook. It proves nothing but the depths to which political debate has fallen. Sales doesn’t seem to mind to be used in this way. It’s as if she’s happy to be an accomplice in Turnbull’s long-practised evasion of leadership and truth.

Now interviews don’t have to be combative. To help the ABC here are a few of the many questions remaining unasked which could help Turnbull to lead, to act like a Prime Minister.

How could the pundits get it so wrong? Is Brexit part of some more deep-seated popular protest against conservative politics; a rebellion against the politics of division, exclusion and increasing social and economic inequality? To Rafael Behr, Brexit sounds,

“…more like a howl of rage and frustration by one half of the country against the system of power, wealth and privilege perceived to be controlled by an elite residing, well, elsewhere.”

Are there parallels in Australia? Brexit is the repudiation of its ruling political and economic elite by half the British nation. Similarly marginalised by a rapidly diminishing share of the nation’s prosperity and excluded or alienated from real political decision-making, manipulated by a conservative mass media. could Australian voters be about to make a similar protest?

In the post-truth era style of political interview we will even phrase the questions to help our PM.

Surely we don’t have workers who have lost their jobs, their futures, their feeling of self-worth. because of our politicians’ relentless, mindless march towards globalisation and free trade?

Surely we don’t live inside a housing bubble so inflated by our banks that it is impossible for average voters to own their own homes?

Surely we don’t have politicians who are so addicted to neoliberal dogma that the concept of the people has become replaced by that of the consumer?

Surely no politician would claim that the politics of economic austerity will solve everything, while tax cuts for the wealthy and the business classes will ensure that prosperity trickles upward?

Surely none of these are true, Malcolm Turnbull wants us to reassure us. He’s calling Brexit a message of “optimism.”

“In this age of technological change, in this age of the internet, in this age of globalism, why would we remain part of Europe for no reason other than geographic proximity at a time when technology has abolished geography?”

Whatever desperate, far-fetched spin our PM may choose to employ to fend off reality, there is an inescapable sense that the writing is on the wall for neoliberal governments everywhere. What is clear is that the free trade agreements and treaties that underpin the now diminished European Community have been tried and found wanting in Britain, and that other nations may well follow.

What is certain, despite everything that our PM has left unsaid, is that Brexit puts the skids under the global financial system. Expect instability, it is true. but don’t expect leadership from him. There is no point in his evading responsibility and everything to be gained by taking us into his confidence. But that would require a capacity to take command and an as yet unseen capacity to communicate. Brexit may be the end of him.

720 thoughts on “Our Fearless Leader

  1. The Turnbull robocall tonight was about the importance of voting for Pruneface. Others in the electorate have had the same call and unlike me, actually listened.

    • Accountable is not his thing in a crisis.

      I’m looking forward to CTar1’s opinion.

    • Wow… I’m quite surprised that he isn’t running. At least at the moment.

      I guess this means that the next Prime Minister of the UK is probably going to be Theresa May? I’m guessing that because she’s been the name being put up as a possible leader among those that have since pulled out (Johnson and Osbourne).

  2. I was robocalled by Libs twice in Melbourne Ports with a hastily put together tape
    I think Danby ALP is toast – fuck the Green spoilers

  3. did i post this earlier?

    Just back from a session to learn how to scrutineer for Saturday. I have my own souvenir Vote for Penny Wong in the Senate corflute. 🙂

  4. Boris has a political ‘narrative’ about himself IE populist. And it doesn’t matter about ‘what’.

    After this effort of basically having the UK turfed out of the EU in an attempt to be PM don’t think he’ll disappear forever.

    He’ll lick his wounds but count bringing his school chum ‘Dave’ down as all ‘good fun’. It’s a game to Boris.

    He’ll be back to wreak havoc, just as he likes it.

    I don’t think the other victims matter at all to him.

  5. I got a recorded message call. A young woman’s voice said her first name and that she was a retail worker who could not afford to lose penalty rates due to X team getting elected. No hint who it was from. Might have been ALP, could have been union I suppose.

  6. On Boris – Being contrite / pleading mitigation at 12:00 also has it’s own English history usually to avoid taking a short walk a bit before 15:00.

  7. Billie,

    Agreed.

    Puffy,

    Tomorrow evening moi is heading for the Secret Cellar. Thank goodness there’s lots of food and drink – plus can openers and other essentials.

    I may be gone some time.

  8. Fiona
    you may find moi already in the secret cellar and I may be gone some time. I shall certainly be in there Sunday because i doubt we will have a result Saturday night.

    which reminds me, Sailor Jerry is a calling.

  9. Jaeger,

    I don’t observe Dry July because my birthday comes almost slap bang in the middle, and I prefer to be able to celebrate it with whatever liquid I want.

    It would be interesting, however, to know if sales of liquor have exceeded their usual rate for the past eight weeks. If they have, I assume the AHA will be agitating for more DDs, and more often.

  10. I think my policy of not getting involved in the blow-by-blow polling has been a wise one.

    No-one knows WHERE this is going. Despite rumours of his political death, Bill insists on walking and talking. And despite rumours of his political brilliance, the “brilliant” Turnbull’s prospects have been morphed from “PM For Life” last September to barely scraping a majority this July (and that’s the optimistic commentators who are predicting this).

    How the mighty have fallen… and how the allegedly puny have risen.

    The pundits are going through the motions now: regulation “Leadershit” stories (all about Shorten, none about Turnbull), VERY empty-sounding “confident” predictions, hectoring, barracking, sleeve-tugging, spivving and screeching. In the case of Leigh Sales tonight, surely a new low: outright laughter at the leader of one side of politics.

    But still no-one knows. The coin has been tossed and we really can’t say whether it will fall heads or tails, hare or tortise, rough or smooth.

  11. Dry July

    F#ck that. I’ll give them a donation on the way out of the shops with a couple of bottles of Cab Sav.

  12. I am happy to donate to their cause and to cash in the empties for a donation too. South Australia as you may remember, has a very workable beverage container deposit scheme, 10c per container for individual drinks for everything. juice, soft drink, booze, milk drinks, water, even those little Yacult yoghurt supplements.

    It makes for a clean environment and great charity fundraising and lot of homeless or poor people make a good supplement to their income from collecting them. i have bin in my yard for my containers. I will get 20 bucks now and then and use it for fuel in the car. Yay for drink deposits. NT tried to do the same but Coca Cola kicked up a stink for no other reason than it is against their USA free market ideals or something.

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny can’t call it now.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/eleciton-2016-australias-next-government-remains-an-educated-if-ultimately-fraught-guess-20160630-gpvjjw.html
    The latest poll has punctured the Liberals’ confidence he says.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/fairfaxipsos-poll-dead-heat-on-election-eve-20160630-gpvmom.html
    Michael Gordon previews what might well be the most engrossing count in living memory.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/fairfaxipsos-poll-dead-heat-on-election-eve-20160630-gpvmom.html
    Michelle Grattan explores what the size of the margin in a Turnbull win would mean to his Prime Ministership.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-shorten-struggles-as-campaign-winds-down-61882
    Waleed Aly with an essay saying that this election will one that demonstrates our growing disillusionment with our political system.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australia-brexit-and-the-search-for-meaning-20160630-gpv4s5.html
    On a similar note Laura Tingle says that in this election it’s the voters themselves that will be the big story. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/laura-tingle/election-2016-the-greatest-story-will-be-the-voters-themselves-20160630-gpv6l8
    “View from the Street” tries to guess the outcome.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-we-definitely-predict-the-election-result-20160630-gpvha1.html
    Paula Matthewson on how the voters might well hang the parliament tomorrow.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/06/29/risk-of-hung-parliament/
    Ben Eltham writes that a Turnbull victory will give us more of the same.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/06/30/disappointment-and-dishonesty-a-turnbull-win-will-deliver-more-of-the-same/
    The mainstream media have become a propaganda mill for Big Business writes Christian Marx.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mainstream-media-now-just-a-propaganda-mill-for-big-biz,9174
    This Advertiser poll shows that Kate Ellis and Mark Butler are safe. It also suggests that Briggs is toast. Google.
    /news/national/federal-election/kate-ellis-and-mark-butler-expected-to-keep-their-seats-the-advertiser-poll-shows/news-story/4c25a67a8f8e297d9e5e311049665a54
    Greg Jericho tells us how Labor’s stimulus package got us through the GFC and that it’s silly for Turnbull to say otherwise.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/jun/30/labors-stimulus-package-got-us-through-a-crisis-turnbull-saying-otherwise-is-silly

  14. Section 2 . . .

    This Queensland Senate candidate tells of 1 July 2015, the day Australia’s democracy walked out of the door.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/30/i-remember-the-day-democracy-walked-out-the-door-it-was-the-day-we-stopped-being-australian
    Michael Pascoe lifts the lid on the big banks’ mortgage gravy train.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/australias-big-four-banks-win-without-even-competing-20160630-gpvgdr.html
    Jess Irvine accuses both sides of generational theft and says it’s time for younger voters to get even.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/youth-to-foot-bill-for-baby-boomer-budget-incompetency-20160630-gpvf26.html
    More doubts cast upon the foundations of the company tax cut benefits.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-company-tax-cut-claims-built-on-uncertain-foundations-modeller-says-20160630-gpvh62.html
    Van Badham implores voters to not let the election distract them from what is happening to workers. This is foul.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/30/dont-let-the-election-distract-you-from-whats-happening-to-workers
    An open letter to the Fake Tradie.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mainstream-media-now-just-a-propaganda-mill-for-big-biz,9174
    And now it’s Borexit as bully boy Johnson slinks off after doing all the damage,
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/fairfaxipsos-poll-dead-heat-on-election-eve-20160630-gpvmom.html
    How, in the space of three hours, one political ambition died and another was born.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/30/goves-thunderbolt-boris-johnson-tory-morning
    This former adviser to Tony Blair describes the Brexit vote as a national nervous breakdown – a peasants’ revolt – and is concerned that the issue might end up in the streets.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/if-the-classes-ignore-the-masses-the-british-will-take-to-the-streets-20160630-gpvlt0.html
    In an example of this concern a British born person tells how he was told to “f**k off home”. He says that Brexit has inflamed underlying racial issues in the UK.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/f-off-home-racists-attacked-me-and-its-clear-brexit-has-made-things-worse-20160629-gpv3jp.html

  15. Section 3 . . .

    Sally Faulkner of 60 Minutes “fame” has been charged.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/06/30/sally-faulkner-charged/
    It turns out that 88% of people sent to Manus Island are actually genuine refugees.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/most-people-sent-to-manus-island-are-genuine-refugees-new-figures-show-20160630-gpv5ns.html
    Oh dear! What a mess this is.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/gasoline-machine-victims-come-forward-after-car-repossessed-20160629-gpuev1.html
    The AEC really needs to look at this sort of stuff. What next, a mob of paedophiles naming themselves the Children’s Party?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/06/30/health-australia-party/
    Another major Telstra outage wreaks havoc on the last day of the financial year.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/telstra-hit-by-another-outage-day-after-250m-announcement-20160630-gpvi5f.html
    In what is now a daily post on Woolies’ worries the question is asked whether it was a disagreement about pokies that led to Roger Corbett’s departure.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/cbd/did-poker-machines-ignite-battle-between-roger-corbett-and-woolworths-ceo-20160630-gpv6wb.html
    Just as the supply of helium was becoming a major concern a new huge reserve has been found in Tanzania.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/30/discovery-of-vast-helium-reserve-lifts-outlook-on-world-shortage/

  16. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir and Turnbull’s “stable” government.

    Andrew Dyson’s view of this stable government.

    Ron Tandberg really takes it up to Morrison.

    Matt Golding and the Liberals’ recent heritage.

    Pat Campbell might have channelled Denis Denuto in this depiction of Turnbull’s last pitch.

    This latest effort from Mark David is worth another look.

    David Rowe on election day eve,

    David Pope and the 2014 budget.

    • Fantastic.

      Will Fizza demand equal time, or is he too scared to go near SBS after what he did to their funding and to Scott Mcintyre?

    • Bananas needs to seek professional help for her phone addiction. That damn pink phone is never out of her hand.

      Forget the driving offence, what I find really, really offensive is her constant use of her phone during QT, and probably during every other sitting she bothers to attend.

  17. Dry July –

    Never heard of it, until last night.

    I just don’t understand the point of all these weird fund-raising things. Shave your head for charity – Why? Is it meant to put hairdressers, who are supposed to donate their time to shave the victims, out of business? How does becoming bald help? Can’t you just ask all your sponsors for a donation?

    Biggest morning tea, where we spend more on the food to be consumed than ends up going to the charity.

    Dry July – where we pretend we aren’t drinking so our friends will give us money.

    It’s all nuts. What happened to the good old-fashioned raffle?

  18. The MSM is sure going into bat for Malfeasance Mal today, basically 50/50 polls all round preferences allotted as per 2013, 27% independent voters, 10% Still undecided and they have got all worked out as a win for the Libs as the public is going for stability. Stability is quoted as the reason they will win. Abbott reign, Abbott knifing, two treasurers, 18 ministers sacked so with this sort of stability the media certainly know how to do irony.

  19. Funny, isn’t it. The more the polling tightens and shows a close election the more the journalists squawk about everyone being fed up with the major parties.

    That will be the excuse if Fizza falls on his face – everyone is fed up, or bored, or disinterested with the major parties, especially Liberal voters, the Liberals just need to work out how to stir voters up and get them back on side and they will have an awesome win next time.

    Maybe Tony is right. Is it possible the awful, boring, dragging length of the campaign coupled with the lack of ‘Stop the Boats!’ has sent voters into a sort of lotus-eater apathy? Will voters sleep-walk to the polls and vote for just anyone, rather than voting for the party most likely to be nasty to refugees?

    • ” P R O M I S E S ” like the recalcitrant school boy, any way it’s only public servants who read The Canberra Times and they would be well aware of the dis function may hem and lies of this government

  20. We are on baby lamb watch. Son and crew have gone to the snow. They shouldn’t have bothered, I recon it is going to snow here, it is bitter. The boys are playing footy at Omeo, we aren’t going, brrrrrrrrr and besides it’s too far and winding road to drive.

  21. There were rumours last night at the scrutineers meeting I attended, that the Liberals are finding it a bit of a challenge to actually staff booths in some electorates here in Perth. Not sure to what extent, but it is surely an indication that even the plebeian Libs are less than enthusiastic about the current government. (Or that they are just as tired of the election campaign as the rest of us?)

    I must be nuts … I’m planning on staying till the end of preliminary counting at the polling booth I’ve been assigned to, just so that I can feel as if I’m doing something useful instead of sitting worrying at an ‘after party’ *wry sighs*

    One more sleep to go …

  22. I notice all the papers have rubbed the feet of- I mean- endorsed Turnbull, confirming that they are all in fact run by Tory lickspittle.

    But don’t lose hope. All the papers (except the Sunday Age) endorsed Napthine’s Liberals in the Victorian 2014 election, and Labor still won.

    • Guardian online have been pretty even-handed in their editorial advice. Their reporters and feature writers have been strongly Labor-leaning, albeit Lenore and Murph are very much in the Press Gallery circle jerk.

    • Was it shortens message to goldfish

      ‘Me : Medicare schools jobs
      Him : banks big business’

      Or similar

  23. Today’s Essential election eve special has the Coaltion on 50.5 and Labor on 49.5, a bit of a drop from last time for Labor.

    http://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport

    I used to think Essential had a panel, a pool of respondents they used every time, but I was wrong. Essential seems to be relying on online polls now. I’ve done three of them over the course of the election campaign, it’s easy to recognise the questions, although they are conducted by other companies who then pass on the results. Because I know how online polling and surveys work I question their accuracy. Respondents are people who sign up to do online surveys because they can be a nice way to earn a bit of pocket money. They would be pensioners,the unemployed, stay-at-home parents, retirees, people with a lot of time to faff around online doing silly surveys, mostly people on some sort of welfare. Not everyone is honest, despite the requirement to agree to tell the truth. These companies don’t want to talk to anyone over 50, some of them, especially Galaxy, don’t want to talk to you unless you live in a capital city. You will be ‘screened out’ if you don’t meet the requirements, and sometimes you will answer a stack of questions only to be told at the end that you are not suitable. So respondents lie about their age, lie about where they live, lie about their income and work status and lie about other stuff as well. Mostly surveys are for marketing purposes, but for the last few months there have been a lot of political ones as well. Expecting these surveys and polls to be accurate is like throwing a pack of tarot cards in the air, studying the order they fall and using that to determine an election outcome. You might as well ask a bunch of cats who they think will win the election, or who has conducted the best campaign.

  24. My Saturday night is now organised no silly sitting around for hours for waiting for a result Bernard Keane has told the abc Malcolm will claim victory at 9 o’clock.

  25. It has got me beat. ABC has been promoting Vote Compass and the main thing people want is stability. The ALP should have been going hard and laughing the Libs out of the contest. In the last week since Brexit they should of hounded the Libs to death promoting their lack of stability and offering up Morriscum and Abbott as just sitting in the wings like vultures.

  26. That’s all very well, but where do they get the ‘air’ time to hound the libs to death? Labor seems to be having a hard time getting heard over the media’s promotion of the elite git….I dearly want to see these tory media shills with their faces covered in shite tomorrow night when Shorten wins despite their efforts. IMO Shorten has done a magnificent job to get Labor’s policies out to the voters and so give them something to think about before they go to cast their vote.

  27. I draw a bit of comfort from Leone’s analysis on Essential, albeit I was hoping it would not show a slight swing back to government. Thus it was disappointing. I still doubt that the pollsters and the Press Gallery have got the right feel for what is happening. They’re asking the wrong questions on what’s important.

    They’ve determined that there is dissatisfaction with the government, but that it’s mostly going to Others and minor parties. How it distributes after that remains to be seen. The ‘feel’ coming in from the ALP volunteers is positive, but they can be wrong or mistake the response for a groundswell.

    Fizza’s only advantage really is that he hasn’t yet pissed off as many voters as did Abbott or Campbell Newman. But it didn’t save Napthine in Victoria, and there is every chance people will look beyond the personality when deciding how to vote.

    My gut instinct is that the strongest swing against Turnbull will be in regional and country areas. I don’t know what to make of Sydney, and would only seriously count on Barton, Banks and possibly Lindsay (despite a recent claim of doing well in Reid). But out from there, quite a bit is possible. Gilmore, McArthur and Mcaquarie have led to confidence from supporters. Dobell and Robertson are good chances, as is Paterson. I’d be confident of Eden-Monaro and Page, which gives good chances in up to ten.

    Queensland gets a bit harder, and especially with polling being unclear, the big question of the campaign. My guess is that they’d need to win 6 there, to get a chance. According to the Guardian reporter today, an ALP insider had them down for about 9 in total across the nation. I’d like to think that leak was referring to NSW, where that number does seem possible. But over the whole country I’d like to think they could win a lot more than that. It may well come down to WA determining it, but I hope Labor’s won before then.

  28. In my opinion, Shorten has run an excellent campaign. No-one in his team could have done better. He handles the likes of Sales and Jones really well, so much so that I don’t think they like to interview him. He’s too tricky for them.

  29. What a nutter.

    A bloke named Dieter Horn has been dragging the AEC to court for years, since 2007, and has been arguing with the AEC since 2004 because he believes polling booths should have curtains. He hasn’t voted in all those years because he insists the AEC is breaking the law by denying him privacy.

    Why the twit can’t just apply for a postal vote and vote at home, behind as many curtains as he likes remains a mystery.

    His case was thrown out of court – again – yesterday.
    http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/HCATrans/2016/149.html

    The first matter involved a Mr Dieter Horn. Mr Horn has engaged in litigation since August 2006 claiming that the voting compartments provided by the AEC in polling booths be either fully enclosed or have curtains to maintain the secrecy of the ballot. Mr Horn has argued that the current voting screens are unlawful and breach the requirements of sections 206 and 331 of the Electoral Act. Mr Horn has a conviction in the Magistrates Court of Western Australia in 2008 for failing to vote in breach of the compulsory voting requirements contained in section 245 of the Electoral Act. Mr Horn appealed that decision to both the Supreme Court of WA and the WA Supreme Court of Appeal on the basis that his concerns about the voting screens amounted to a “valid and sufficient reason” for his failure to vote at the November 2007 election. Both Courts upheld the conviction and rejected Mr Horn’s arguments.

    At the August 2010 federal election, the records show that Mr Horn again failed to attend a polling booth and to cast a vote. On 29 August 2012, the WA Magistrates Court convicted Mr Horn of failing to vote at the election without having a valid and sufficient reason for that failure. Mr Horn appealed against the conviction to the Supreme Court of WA. On 7 March 2013, Justice Hall dismissed the appeal from Mr Horn (see Horn v AEC [2013] WASC 72). In the final paragraph of the decision, His Honour stated that:

    “A stubborn refusal to accept the lawful judgment of the courts cannot be excused on the grounds of fidelity to one’s values. Too much time and effort has been spent on an issue that has long ago been determined. It is well nigh time that Mr Horn accepted the judgment of those whose job is to judge”

    http://annualreport.aec.gov.au/2013/governance/judicial-scrutiny.html

    https://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-171671445.html

  30. One standout bit of video from this morning for me was Shorten, Plibersek and a Sydney western suburbs candidate listening to Shorten talking to a group of ‘disabled’ and some of their carers.

    The local candidate smiling and nodding but Plibersek straight faced and concentrating very directly on what Shorten was saying.

    I can guess exactly what she was thinking – ‘How the f#ck did he get NDIS up?’

    Plibersek is a very good all-rounder and very good at plugging holes in the ranks. She’s not adept at Foreign Relations but still better than a match for BishJnr so it leaves her time to help out with other stuff.

    She’s important but I don’t see her as leader.

    Shame we lost D’Ath to state politics. She had definite drive and focus.

    I hope I don’t upset anyone by saying this.

    • That doesn’t upset me.

      I think Tanya is a fantastic asset for Labor, but not leader material. She is too gaffe-prone, and does not seem across all the details, which can be embarrassing for her. After the 2013 election, when Labor was choosing a new leader, I thought Tanya would be a good choice as deputy leader, I still think that, she has been very effective, but that’s as far as I would go.

    • l2

      I thought Tanya would be a good choice as deputy leader, I still think that, she has been very effective

      Yep. Some times she trips. But that’s the nature of having to dive into gaps and have a go.

      Very worthwhile.

    • An honest assessment is always welcome, Ctar, and you bring some information not available to us. She carries a fair bit of clarity in public speaking, which makes her popular with voters.

      Where I think she might be handy in the event of a win was if she took on a different portfolio. Whatever the rhetoric to the contrary, Manus and Nauru must be shut down as early as possible. Some sort of detention will still be needed while bona fides are verified.

      I’m suggesting onshore detention similar to the Inverbrackie experiment in community hostel detention. If regions chosen had had declines in industry and employment, it would help fill the gap through education and language, training and security/catering. If memory serves, a Tasmanian community warmed to taking Bosnian refugees, which can lead to a win-win. Certainly better to spend the money there rather than with all the mercenary rent-seekers like Transfield and Wilson Security.

      If Tanya was to be appointed as Immigration and Community Liaison Minister, as well as Deputy PM, I’m sure she would help sell the concept to the public.

  31. I have voted.

    The *expletive deleted* member for Kooyong was handing out at the prepolling place. He didn’t even look at me, let alone speak. Probably a good thing: I had planned some very snarky comments . . .

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