575 thoughts on “Family Portraits Friday Evening

  1. Re the adulation of Turnbull, look at it this way: Ok, he’s announced a new ministry, we can talk about that for a while. But then what? I’d give it two or three more days before nobody’s really interested any more. And then he has to do something. We’ll almost immediately be back to the idea that he’s going to differentiate himself from Abbott, and this time it won’t be about people, it’ll be about policy.

    So what’s he got? He’s cancelled out his shift on NDIS by not announcing a Disabilities minister. Does he have any room to move anywhere else? He has to have made a few deals and a few promises to garner enough support to win the leadership. So let’s see.

    Give it a week before you start to assess. It’s impossible to just keep talking in vague tones about what a great man he is. Expectations are too high for that.

  2. 2 Gravel and others feeling bruised by the MSM adulation:
    I’d recommend a total blackout of the media for the next few days or longer. You can be assured that there will be developments within a few days which will distract the ambulance chasers.
    While I don’t pretend to know how matters will play out, there are significant problems which the Turnbull administration is facing, and will face.
    – The economy is precariously placed and the medium term is particularly threatening.
    – The internal contradictions created by the ideological imbalance in the Liberal Parliamentary Party as well as the Nats will make it difficult to achieve more than cosmetic changes, and cosmetic changes are unlikely to be enough to sustain the polling sugar hit of the change from Abbott to Turnbull.

    If Turnbull surprises me by achieving significant policy change in a more progressive direction, that will be highly desirable, even if it leads to his re-election (a second-best outcome). If for example taxation were to become more effectively redistributive (e.g. modification to superannuation tax concessions, negative gearing), if the poisonous attitude to asylum seekers was to disappear, if educational opportunity is again made available to all, not just the privileged, that would be an unqualified good. I don’t expect these things and other similar progressive developments, but if they happen, I will applaud.

    I would urge Labor supporters (and I’m also urging myself) to maintain calm in the face of what is likely to be a short-term revival in L-NP fortunes in the polls. That is a natural reaction to the relief that accompanies the demise of Abbott. However, there is no policy framework, because they haven’t done any serious thinking about what needs to be done, even to advance their version of what should be done. The Liberal Party’s incompetence is our protection, and cannot be papered over by the increasingly discredited and irrelevant MSM cheerleaders.

  3. PJF,

    Wise words and ones I am already following. Mind you, having a very crowded schedule at the moment helps!

  4. More on James McGrath – Turnbull certainly picks some strange ‘close friends’.

    Senator McGrath has had a long friendship with Mr Turnbull which lead to the then Opposition leader backing the Queenslander in a bid to unseat long-serving federal Liberal Party director Brian Loughnane

    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/who-is-james-mcgrath-the-faceless-man-behind-turnbull-coup-20150918-gjpkq8

    And this –
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/gang-of-seven-led-by-queensland-first-time-senator-james-mcgrath-plotted-rise-of-malcolm-turnbull/story-fnihsrk2-1227533744766

    Labor is supposed to be terrified of this twerp. I don’t know why.

  5. I’m nowhere near the media, as is usual for me. If it’s not on my Twitter feed, or being talked about here, I’m not really aware of it. All I can really say definitively about the reaction is:

    1. My control group are rapt, but they’re making some very odd predictions. One had Turnbull as PM for at least two more terms, another thought Kelly O’Dwyer was a magnificent promotion and a possible PM within 20 years. Another was looking forward to the PM debates as he believed Turnbull would smash Shorten. There was other stuff, but it was all first flush thinking, I think more relief that they didn’t have to defend a congenital idiot any more. One sour note by one of the more ‘traditional’ Liberal supporters, who wasn’t happy with Turnbull at all and thought him an arrogant showpony. That one was interesting – this guy is actually politically engaged with the Liberals to a point, at grass roots level. It shows up the difference between the blind supporters (those who barrack for the party, not the leader or the policies) and those who took an interest in the ideological direction the party is taking. Both trains of thought are out there.

    2. Everyone else I’ve heard from is just happy to see the back of Abbott. A syphilitic frog could be running the country now for all they care, no more Tony is all they were after. These people aren’t particularly politically engaged. They like protests, things like that, but they’re not much chop on political trends or anything like that.

  6. Morgan Poll
    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 26m26 minutes ago View translation
    #Morgan Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 55 (+12) ALP 45 (-12) #auspol
    24 retweets 1 favorite
    Reply Retweet 24 Favorite 1
    More

  7. Greg Jericho ‏@GrogsGamut 27m27 minutes ago
    Greg Jericho retweeted GhostWhoVotes
    Now *that* is a bounce Greg Jericho added,
    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
    #Morgan Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 46 (+11) ALP 29.5 (-7) GRN 13 (-3) #auspol
    3 retweets 1 favorite
    Reply Retweet 3 Favorite 1
    More

  8. Boy what a sugar hit. Can this be true, this means that ALP voters also have turned to the sweet talking Turnbull.

  9. Yet Turnbull has said that he is keeping all the Abbott policies. Australian voters sure are shallow, any pretty sweet talking man will do the job.
    What a let down is going to happen in the near future (I Hope) for the Aussie voter.

  10. “Hotel and manager fined $50k for serving drunk man before his death”

    Not much point in serving him after his death.

  11. Mmmmmm. As they rise, so must they eventually fall.

    This one has to definitely be an outlier. He ain’t that good, but remember, Labor voters when polled on leadership questions did give Turnbull an unwarranted level of support.

    I reckon that was because of the Abbott effect whereby they were happy that anyone would step up to see him gone & Turnbull was also a “known” factor to them.

    Quite a sugar hit alright, but believe me, it can’t last too long. It’s just a different ball game now &n Labor has to adjust their strategies to suit the new paradigm!

  12. Come on, Waffles, fix it

    “The All Ordinaries Index fell 98 points or nearly 2 per cent to 5,096, while the ASX 200 lost 104 points to 5,066.”

  13. I would love to see how many of the currently swooning over Truffles media lizards were trashing him by he time NE took over.

  14. Stay away from the ABC tonight, until Shorten does his thing on Q&A.

    Leigh Sales will interview St Malcolm on 7.30.

    Australia Story is doing a Turnbull story.

    Four Corners is doing more Turnbull.

    Don’t blame me for any adverse reactions if you are silly enough to tune in. I tried to warn you.

  15. FFS

    The Drum: Kim Williams – “Everyone will welcome the appointment of Joe Hockey to Washington”

  16. Leone,

    It’s locked in. Might start with Media Watch.

    Sadly, Q&A will be all Jones asking Bill to tell us all about his policies.

  17. “Everyone will welcome the appointment of Joe Hockey to Washington”

    Everyone outside the US of A. They missed the bullet.

  18. leonetwo,

    Funny – back then everyone thought Hockey would replace Turnbull.

    Except Turnbull replaced Hockey with – Morrison!

    Bye bye, Shrek! 😉

  19. leonetwo

    A big THANK YOU for that. What a brilliant find and by god does it show how crap the political journos are . Posted it over the road. With attribution of course 🙂

  20. I guess this’ll test my theory, which is that Morgan overshoots in both directions. I think it may be the most accurate when the polls are close, but any significant movement in either direction tends to get magnified by Morgan. Don’t know why it happens, and also don’t know whether my observation is accurate, just an impression I’ve had for a while.

  21. So, the voters are turning to Mighty Mal in a big way, but if the Party do not let him ‘fix’ abbott’s stuff-ups and the realisation sinks in that this new toffy PM is responsible for the wrecking of the NBN for his fraudband that not only is costing almost as much, but will be obsolete before it is built…….

  22. Aguirre

    I guess this’ll test my theory, which is that Morgan overshoots in both directions

    From my limited knowledge of statistics I am WAY more suspicious of polls that did not leap about. Their quoted margins of error and confidence levels , even if accepted, should in political terms see regular dramatic changes.

  23. Aguirre,
    You may be right. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Morgan is reasonably accurate.
    But before we all get down in the dumps, let’s look at this from another angle. Assume Morgan is polling Thurs, Fri and Sat. A huge swing back to Libs. BUT how does this marry up with an actual by election where the Libs had a 7% swing AGAINST?
    My theory is that it’s because ALP was campaigning with the help of union ads decrying China FTA and bringing in o’seas workers to take Aussies’ jobs. Very simplistic but as I’ve said in previous posts what IMO will be a game changer come actual election time.

  24. Gawd!..Malcolm’s getting the “full monty” from the ABC. tonight..I hope they make up for it on 4corners.

  25. New knee pads, new special formula lubricants, new special oral sex condoms, new oils for back and foot rubs, new extra-strength ABC room fragrances to mask the stench of political bias……so many new products. They could market them in special new adults only departments in ABC shops and …..oh……. yeah….. .gone.

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