Today’s Guest Poster is Aguirre, whose brilliant comment on Saturday more than deserves republication as a threadstarter. Aguirre, I’m not sure if this is the first time you have been a Guest Poster. If so, thank you, and have a
If not, apologies for my failing memory.
(Image Credit: The Template)
If Abbott loses the next election, that’s it for him. He’ll be persona non grata around the Liberals, and they’ll all run a mile to distance themselves from him. He’d be lucky to survive past his concession speech. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Turnbull given the nod as leader for an interim period, and then have them turn once again to the negative politics 18 months in, this time with Morrison.
Abbott doesn’t do humility, he is a very sore loser, and he is of course a bit of a loose cannon. They simply can’t afford to have him around as a continual reminder of what a mess he made of his only term. It will of course be fun to watch the MSM eating their own BS about what a great leader and statesman Abbott has been. But if the polls don’t shift they’ll start doing that well before the election.
If he wins, however . . . sheesh. He’ll likely start with a purge of his party, demanding public statements of loyalty to him personally, and dumping anyone who’s even half-hearted about it. He will make sure everyone is licking his boots. Possible challengers will be given the worst portfoliios. And then he will attack whoever is leading the ALP personally and endlessly. I don’t even want to think about what he’ll do to the ABC.
If there’s one thing we’ve learnt from this term, it’s that the Abbott government is not about policy, and it’s not about governance. It’s about politics-as-warfare. The whole country can go to hell in a hand-basket as far as Abbott’s concerned, just as long as he gets to keep hold of the reins of power.
That said, I don’t think Abbott has the faintest idea how to run an election campaign as PM. A major part of any campaign is standing on your record of achievement. You have to balance that against what you want to say against your opponents. He’s achieved nothing. His focus has been on chasing a lost plane, trying to scare us over terrorism, and throwing money at royal commissions that went nowhere near the denigration of the ALP he was counting on. The only thing he can even talk about is the abolition of carbon pricing, which nobody seems to have cared about all that much. People are about as engaged with its loss as they were with its introduction. It’s just a thing that happened. He can say he stopped the boats, I suppose, but there’s so much secrecy and doubt around that claim that he can’t do all that much with it.
And there has been a constant stream of own-goals from him and his team that not even a compliant press can gloss over. Every time the MSM sheepishly proffers a piece of mitigated bad news to the electorate, the reaction is almost always, “He did WHAT?!” They can’t stop that. Abbott’s front bench can’t stop screwing up, and the press can’t stop people noticing. That’s the main reason the polls aren’t shifting. It takes a supreme effort from all concerned just to keep them at 47-53. I have no idea what they think they can do to get it closer than that. They don’t seem to know.
(Image Credit: 1984 Redux)