Today’s Guest Author is Aguirre (see – told you I’d get a thread-starter out of you one of these days . . . ). As we at The Pub know, Aguirre is a fine analyst of politics and – as importantly – policies. In my opinion (and that of at least one other, Your Royal Leonine Majesty) his ability to get to the heart of the matter is better than almost every mainstream journalist, and the equal of the best of the fifth estate. Thank you again, Aguirre, for permission to republish.
Well, we all know Abbott’s MO is to survive the next thing, whether it be an interview, a party room meeting, a presser or a session of Parliament. He’s happy to sacrifice all future credibility anything one of his colleagues might have said, any promise he might have made, even the workability of his own party, just as long as he survives that next thing. He’s made promises to WA that shaft Tasmania, and then gone straight to Tasmania to make promises that shaft WA, just so he could survive each of those particular speeches. He’s gone on TV and actually called himself a liar, simply because there was no other way out of that line of questioning, and then pretty much gone straight out into the community and said “Trust me.” He did an NPC speech a couple of years ago where he came out with all sorts of wonderful policy promises, his ‘new direction’ or whatever it was, and we watched him back away from all of them within a half hour of questions. Just because there was no other way out. If he needs his wife an daughters to act as a buffer against curly questioning, no worries, out they trot. Just as long as he gets through the next hour, the next meeting, the next day, the next interview.
So the next thing is the spill. You can bet he’ll go around to each of the backbenchers, individually, and promise them whatever it is they want from him, hand on heart. They’ll be different promises to each backbencher, and the promises will all contradict each other. A lot of them won’t believe him, but given he’ll have some support already, and given there could be three of four candidates and Bishop and Turnbull might split their votes, he probably only needs to con 15-20 of the backbench. He’d be thinking he could win a three-way contest. Just. But just is enough.
Maybe he’ll tell some of them he’s confident he has the numbers, and there’ll be retribution for those who don’t back him. Maybe he’ll tell others they’re close to a ministry position so just hang in there. Maybe he’ll tell others he’s begging them for the stability of the party, don’t change horses mid-stream. Whatever pushes their buttons.
I’d never heard of Luke Simpkins.
He sounds like a real charmer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luke_Simpkins
His other claim to fame, Leone, was to try to drum up a scare against Halal-approved food preparation on the grounds that it could turn us into a Islamic terrorist, or some such.
whoops. Didn’t realize you covered that later.
If the nutjobs are turning, Abbott’s in deep trouble. They were his base for most of his journey, and even forgave him for backing down on the Bolt Amendments.
As spill-prone as a pissed kangaroo pouring cocktails, Australia could soon see its fourth change of Prime Minister in four years
😀 😀 😀 😀 😀
GL,
Whoa! No need to get so upset. I only posted it with the thought it may interest other Pubsters.
Leone,
I was interested to note mr simpkins’ history as a rower, remembered senator bernardi’s similar predilection, and started wondering about politicians and rowing.
Well, it turns out FPM Whitlam was also a rower, though sort of by compulsion. This is what he had to say:
http://www.rowingnsw.asn.au/news/1011/645/Gough-Whitlam-Rower-and-Prime-Minister.html
For other politicians who rowed see:
http://heartheboatsing.com/2013/09/14/rowing-to-government/
Barry J
I didn’t get upset, no need to as Ellis’s rubbish is so easily refuted.
Well the Abbottocolypse sequence has officially commenced. New PM in 5…4…3…2…
Ruddock has officially announced the LibSpill is on!
Hahaha! I love spreading the LNP love. Just announced the spill on facebook. Can’t wait to see the comments! lol
So it’s Simpkins against Simpkin! Delicious.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-06/mp-seeks-leadership-spill/6075470
If Bananas gets the gig would the new ministry be a Broadband?
Is Simpkins standing as a stalking horse?
Just delicious. I am hoping for an Abbott victory! ROFLMAO.
Nice coincidence. Look who are 20th and 21st on the list of PM’s by length of service.
For some reason I am reminded of Robert Heilein’s depiction of society in “Starship Troopers” (the original book version) where the only people who were allowed to be citizens and vote were people who had served at least one tour of duty in the armed forces.
I didn’t realise until many years later why, of all his books, that one made me feel disquieted. And I know that Heinlein never worked out that what he thought was a good idea was also approved of by a certain group in Germany in the 1930s
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/the-pulse-live/politics-live-tony-abbotts-leadership-in-crisis–february-6-2015-20150206-137ks2.html
Spacey,
So am I. By one vote.
If Turnbull becomes leader, No one should expect much, if any, change in policy.
Fiona,
OMG how delightful would that be!
Some mood music
Given that what Abbott has been saying is very similar to what Rudd said prior to losing the leadership in 2010, It’s a fair bet that Abbott and his backers will whiteant and backstab any successor.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/p720x720/10487396_10153115897866789_2864911391533775937_n.png?oh=02e38aef59b931ac9d4774f3c5528ab6&oe=555E4F34&__gda__=1431870413_ef0328f49d55f2304d737f14a51368ee
GL
Bill Shorten summed it up this morning saying the only difference would be the guy peddling the crap will be “…in a better suit”
Oh I’m enjoying seeing headlines like this.
Nice one, Gabrielle!
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2015/feb/06/christopher-pyne-unsure-tony-abbott-could-survive-leadership-spill-live#comments
“The prime minister Tony Abbott will speak on the spill motion at 3.20pm today in Sydney.”
election,election,election,election,election,election,election,election… hang on, I should really stop dreaming.
Perhaps: “I’ll not be re-contesting”?
3:20 Abbott presser
It wouldn’t surprise me one iota if he resigns. He is such a coward, all smugglers and no budgie.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/wa-mp-luke-simpkins-to-move-spill-against-tony-abbott/story-fn59niix-1227210409796
http://www.3aw.com.au/news/independent-senator-john-madigan-slams-leadership-spill-20150206-13800x.html
The PM is late for his funeral.
TLBD
I’m enjoying watching the empty podium.
duck
He’s stuck over choosing the right casket.
BK,
This one should go down a treat:
Abbott’s started and sounding just like Rudd.
BK
He looks pleased with this one.
http://www.zomboscloset.com/.a/6a00d83451d04569e2017744a33939970d-pi
And it’s just finished
And once again brave sir tony runs away!
Huh, so it is on. Seems that it’s the endgame for Abbott.
As to why Bishop is quiet on this, I thought one possibility might be that Turnbull would happily appoint her as his successor and move aside in 1 or 2 terms, keeping her leadership ambitions quiet and satisfied for the moment.
That is assuming that if he’s leader he’d actually be successful. On paper yes he has the popularity, but he also needs the backing of his party, and the right wing of the Liberals + the Nationals don’t seem keen on providing that.
Bullshit! The voters voted in their individual electorate MPs.
And Julie and I will stand together as a team. So this means she will go down with the ship.
And now the gutless bastard walks off. The press will LOVE that.
So, the abbott is intent on hanging onto the prize he got when digging through the rubble of the destruction he caused with his wrecking ball. He aint going to go unless they blast him out.
A photo taken outside the PM’s office after the presser.
Billie Holliday echoes the Lib party room
Damn, missed the announcement. I’ve got Sky telling me it was Abbott’s masterstroke and that he can’t lose a ballot now Bishop’s standing with him. Doesn’t sound right to me. I take he said he had Bishop on-side? Is that right? Why wasn’t she there with him, then?
I’m not going to believe anything about where Bishop stands until I hear from her.
I was wrong.
Mesma to stand by her PM tones. Guess we’ll see on Tuesday.
I just heard uhlmann say in all sincerity wtte ‘we need to look at what has gone wrong in Australian politics’
I have no words!!!!!
the’ve just repeated Abbott’s press conference, by my timing it went for about 1 minute and 15 seconds.
Why wouldn’t Julie Bishop stand by her man? She knows whoever is leader after the spill will most likely lose the next election and she doesn’t want that poisoned chalice.