10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1

BE HONEST

514441The Countdown has begun to election Day . All the polls are showing a comfortable victory to the coalition

BooWEB

What are your seat predictions for the final outcome?download (6) While we may be counting down the last few days of this Labor government what has been your favourite/ least favourite moment of the past 6 years?

download (7)

. I think by Friday we will all be looking forward to Raffle night for some relief.

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Hang on Folks it,s going to be a big week.

REMEMBER

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1,268 thoughts on “10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1

  1. Tomorrow I am the ‘booth captain’, lone htv giveroutter and scrutineer at a little town hall in a Shoalhaven booth. It’s gonna be a long day. Very disappointing response to an appeal for helpers. Anyway, I’m up for it. The lib didn’t turn up at Wednesday nights meet the candidates forum in Berry. That’s 4 out of 6 she has sidestepped. Can’t really blame her as she has been embarrassed badly at the 2

  2. Kirsdarke
    It’s a real can of worms, this intellectual capacity to vote thing. People with intellectiual disabilities can be refused enrolment if they or their carers/familes are honest and admit the problem. Some families will just enrol their intellectually disabled person and vote in their name with postal votes. Same with oldies who have conditions that make voting beyond them. Family members will not apply to remove them from the rolls but will vote for them. It probably doesn’t make much difference overall, but in cases where an electorate and maybe even a government depends on a handful of votes a few cheats voting on behalf of family members could have a big effect.

    I have no idea what you could do to fix this. It would take very intrusive measures to do it.

  3. I have plans for Saturday and onward – I have Season Two of Game of Thrones- I will not watch election coverage- it may be too painful. The Age poll gives me a glimmer of hope- but people do vote against their own self interest- and we will all pay a price. Too good for too long is my opinion.

  4. Too good for too long is my opinion.

    I couldn’t agree more Catalyst. People really don’t know what hardship is like anymore when they consider the last 3-6 years as miserable.

  5. Leone, it’s a tradition among Liberal Party faithful to organize the elderly. it goes back at least as far as the Menzies era when they were very well organised. They would arrange cars and minibuses to take the oldies to the polling booths. At others such as hospices and intense-care places, they’d get postal votes organised for them.

    It was so well-established when I first knew of it in the late 60s that I’d expect that it probably went back at least 50 years before that. I had assumed it might have lapsed with the transformation of the party after the Howard-Peacock wars. The old style patrician Liberals lost out so badly to Howard, as did Melbourne as the focal point to Sydney, that I’d assumed the practice might have lapsed. The religious crazies, the ex-DLP, and the ultra Right hold sway now.

    I thought that it might have gone as older party loyalists left or died off. But apparently some of the tradition still survives. As Labor Party volunteers, we were a bit jealous of how they managed it. They did carefully shepherd their guests away from the harmful influences of the likes of us.

  6. Interesting contrast. When Tone is with the local candidate the local candidate gets to say nothing.

    Just saw Kevvie with Deb O’Neill and she had plenty to say, even suggesting to Kev that a particular local journo should have the next question. She is very good.

  7. Megan46 I have looked at the information for Liberal volunteers and it says to look out for frail people, ask if they want help, if the answer is yes, remove all Liberal branding and escort them to the booth and help them vote.

    A friend is a staunch Liberal supporter, poorer than a church mouse, who goes from nursing home bed to bed helping people vote.

    I think it’s left up to the integrity of the volunteer to accurately record the voter’s intention.

    Electors over the age of 70 are not hounded or fined when they fail to vote.

  8. we are not spoiled?
    I watched some of Location Location on TV last night. A yuppie Sydney apartment-living couple were looking at houses to buy on the Gold Coast. i turned off after they looked at one beautiful three bathroon four bedroom, glamourous kitchen house and rejected it because she was unhappy with the small (3metre x 3 metre I reckon) WALK IN WARDROBE!!!!

  9. Leonetwo the Liberal reference to Office for Women in the Workplace Agency refers to an agency that changed its name in April 1012. The current director was appointed in 2011

  10. Given that it’s just one day before polling day I’ll put my predictions out there.
    Labor Losses
    Robertson
    Greenway (despite Jaymes Diaz’s many issues I think the margin is too small for Labor to defend although I think the swing will be smaller than average)
    Parramatta
    Reid
    Banks
    Lindsay
    Corangamite
    Deakin
    La Trobe
    Moreton
    Petrie
    Hindmarsh
    Bass
    Braddon

    National Losses
    Mallee (unless the Libs get less than 15% then Labor preferences will get them over the line)

    Green Losses
    Melbourne

    Independent Losses
    Dobell (to Libs)
    Fisher (to LNP)
    Lyne (to Nats)
    New England (to Nats)

    Seat Total
    ALP: 58
    Coalition: 90
    Independents: 2

    Agree? Disagree? let me know what you think.

  11. Sadly I mostly agree, although I’d like to think that L/NP losses will include Indi (to Independent), Brisbane and Hasluck (to Labor), with Fairfax possibly falling to Palmer. Also I think Labor might just get over the line in Parramatta, Hindmarsh and Petrie.

    But I’ll hold my predictions until the megapolls tonight, and see if Labor’s managed to narrow the gap over the week.

  12. Jesus christ that’s horrifying that the Libs will go after him like that. Is that how they want to handle people who disagree with them? Strong-arm them with legal threats into submission? This country really is sick.

  13. Just glanced at Crikey (not a subscriber now). Says Essential has Coalition poised for a comfortable win, but a late surge for the minor parties. Says it has come back from an easy win to a much closer one. Bugger! Come on the young and uncommitted!

  14. Yeah, I’m guessing that Indi will go because Mirabella is a very poor local campaigner in a seat of local issues. Her particular brand of nastiness is suited to an urban blue-ribbon seat where the toffs don’t bat an eyelid if their local lib pokes puppies with sticks or locks someone in the shed until they give her power of attorney.

  15. I suppose I could be classifed as ‘frail looking’ because I use a walking stick and I’m – er- older. I’m far from frail, as my doctor confirmed yesterday but I know my body will let me down eventually and I’ll need to go into an aged care place. I’m not looking forward to that but I’m already plotting my rebellion. A good whack with my stick to the knees of anyone trying to ‘help’ me vote Coalition has now been added to my things-to-do list.

  16. leonetwo

    A walking cane for you should you come across any “helpful” coalition types. TLBD inspired the design of the handle.

  17. I’ll put out my Senate predictions as well

    NSW
    Coalition: 3
    Labor: 2
    Greens: 1

    VIC
    Coalition: 3
    Labor: 2
    Greens: 1

    QLD
    LNP: 3
    Labor:2
    Palmer:1 (This is the prediction I am least sure about. If Palmer’s “Wendy Deng is a Chinese spy” outburst cost him votes then maybe the Greens could pick this seat up).

    WA
    Coalition:3
    Labor: 2
    Greens: 1
    (I think there may be an outside chance of the coalition winning 4 seats in the West due to the Libs and Nats running separate tickets.)

    SA
    Coalition:3
    Labor: 2
    Xenophon: 1

    TAS
    Coalition: 3
    Labor: 2
    Green: 1

    ACT
    Labor: 1
    Liberal: 1

    NT
    CLP: 1
    Labor: 1

    Total
    Labor: 27
    Coalition: 36
    Green: 10
    Palmer:1
    Xenophon: 1
    DLP: 1

    Basically if my prediction is correct. balance of power will be held between Xenophon, the DLP senator and a Palmer senator.

    Of course there could be a number of wild cards: Pauline Hanson could win in NSW, Katter could get a senator up, who knows with all the tickets running (the Victorian one goes all the way to AM), but I think a coalition outright majority was never on the cards as to do so they need to win 4 senate seats in at least three states and the only one I can see as a possibility is WA.

  18. ACT
    Labor: 1
    Liberal: 1

    I’m hoping for a backlash against Zed and/or Abbott; there was a strong anti-Humphries vote last time, but I’m not sure if that would swing for/against Zed.

  19. Gippsland Laborite,

    With regards to the Qld Senate I would favor a Katter Party candidate to win before PUP. Labor is preferencing Katter in Qld. Not that it matters as all three minors would vote with the coalition. If you are right, goodbye ETS.

  20. Barry J
    You may be right about Katter, it all depends on preferences and which groups get excluded first. I’ll say one thing Antony Green is right there needs to be serious reform of the Senate voting system. I think they should dump Single Transferable vote and put in a proper proportional voting system, no quotas, no preferences.

  21. I have just had a peak over at the other place basically for seat-track (and then noted posters).
    One comment – what type of sick individual would one have to be when their side is going to win convincingly and they incessantly and vacuously keep putting the boots into Labor supporters as they have done for months but even more gleefully now on the eve of Abbott!

  22. Too late, Julia Baird, you could have said nice things about Julia Gillard when you were on The Drum.

    I’ve long held the view that the temptation to join in the lynch mob mentality is too strong for most journalists.

    Take a journo, any journo, even a pissant like Waleed Aly, and put them in a room full of smirking old-time Gallery hacks and they can’t resist going with the urge to find a head and kick it.

    Honourable MSM exceptions being (most times anyway) Bongo, Hugh Riminton and George Megalogenis.

    What will happen after the election, I don’t know, with (as looks likely) no Labor government to push around.

    No-one ever sold newspapers by being nice, or so it seems. So what to do when Abbott is in there doing exactly what the SMH this morning accused him of doing… only this time with real power?

    “To kick or not to kick? That is the question…”

    Putting aside any chance of any of them being nobler in the mind, how are they going to sell their crappy rags then?

    It’ll either be “Put the boot into Abbott” or go broke with mass retrenchments (which I reckon are planned already, for as soon as the election’s done and dusted).

    It will be some comfort to see a few of the supposed Old Hands go down the gurgler.

  23. bb

    It’s what you call peer group pressure. You see that amongs children in schools; also in offices and in the Press. It’s horrible and dangerous.

  24. When I read that nice piece on Julia Gillard written by Ms.Baird, my thoughts were exactly the same as yours, gigilene. Julia Gillard’s integrity, strength and absolute class have made a number of these group-think journos feel grubby and spiteful.

  25. i believe labor will lose 12-15 seats tomorrow with the losses spread across five of the six states,

    SA will stay firm for labor as will NT and ACT.

    The Senate will end up under indies/minor party control making it a must view destination for political tragics once it changes over.

    You remember the bit about Abbott being prepared to sell his arse ?

    Well you ain’t seen nothing yet.

    Why will Australia vote into government a party lead by Tony Abbott ?

    The answer is very simple.

    Putting aside the very, very, very poor campaign run by Rudd and his team three events are central to the debacle we will see tomorrow.

    1) The challenge by Rudd in 2012.

    2)The no show challenge by Rudd in 2013 and the tv footage of Simon Crean demanding PMJG resign reminiscent of some third world country where the army has surrounded the presidential palace and

    3) the instability leading up to and the successful challenge by Rudd.

    Yes the coalition played a major role in the result tomorrow, yes the OM can take huge “credit” for the result tomorrow but the Australian people have, I think, just had a gutful of the instability and soap opera driven by Rudd and his supporters.

    They are not voting for the coalition but are voting against labor.

    Pure and simple.

  26. Juila Baird and her ilk, now sucking-up to a woman they spent three years trying to destroy, are doing more than a bit of arse covering. They are trying to take out some insurance. Julia Gillard is destined for bigger and better things, one day the Julia Bairds will want exclusive interviews with her. They hope that by sucking up now all their past abuse will be forgotten. I’d bet that Ms Gillard will never forget and these suck-ups will be left without their interviews, for ever.

  27. Outrageous prediction..#1

    Equal numbers, 74 each. Balance of power being held by McGowan..(Indi) and Slipper..(Fisher)

    Outrageous prediction.. #2

    A Senate so feral that every time PM Abbott drops a pencil he knows he’s going to get what Chrissy wants.

    Outrageous prediction..#3

    LNP by- elections galore within 6 months due to;

    Joe Hockey choking on a conscience at a popular restaurant. Thought it was a falafel.

    Scott Morrison hit by epiphany. Decides to spend remaining life on a hilltop singing.

    Bronny Bishop found to be secretly addicted to kerosene. Her wick finally runs out.

    Bishop the young? suffers from addled brain after tripping over tattered old book left at her front door by Bishop the elder.

    George Brandis realises that QC does not mean Queens Council….and he has always been one.

    Andrew Robb goes sheep mustering. Uses a black dog.

    Kevin Andrews accepts job as mortuary attendant,…as a practise dummy.

    Eric Abetz finally admits Uncle Otto is not the charming animated figure on channel seven years and years ago

    Outrageous prediction..#4

    After tomorrow evening I’m off politics for a long, long time.

  28. I have no idea what the outcome of this election will be. I still hold a faint hope that Labor might fall over the line with a one seat majority. This flickering hope remains because I’ve been hearing dozens of young voters saying they want to retain the ETS, Labor’s Gonski policy and the real NBN. Some are going further and saying they don’t care about a surplus if the money goes into health and education etc.

  29. Is there nothing the Liberals won’t do to win? This is absolutely disgusting. I cannot believe that people really want this lot running the place. And it’s in the Smelly, too.

    “POLICE are investigating allegations that a Liberal campaign worker threatened the sister of western Sydney Labor MP Ed Husic with a Stanley knife last night.

    It is the second incident involving police and Liberal staff in the past two days.

    The Daily Telegraph has learned that on Thursday, a group of Liberal Party campaign workers rushed Mr Husic’s sister, Sabina Husic, with the knife yelling “you f..king dog”.”
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/the-moment-a-liberal-staffer-threatened-labor-mp-ed-husic8217s-sister-with-a-stanley-knife/story-fni0cx4q-1226713256424

  30. I am still thinking Clive himself has a very good chance in Fairfax and his candidate will do well in Fisher. Some of my conservative colleagues in Fisher have voted that way already in disgust at both Brough and Slipper. Interesting times on the Sunshine Coast. Once again the coast has been ignored by both parties. Taken for granted by the LNP and ignored as a no chance to win by the ALP.

    Also hoping the Indi indie gets up which will at least be one bright spot tomorrow. Thinking 87 – 58 with 5 indies – Katter, Palmer, Wilkie, McGowen and Bandt. I hope I am wrong and the ALP squeaks through.

    Tanya P to take over as LOTO.

    My half full glass is seeing Sunday as the first day of the last term of the Abbott govt with every day one step closer to his defeat.

  31. I’m not making any predictions because (1) I have no idea how things will turn out and (2) I don’t want to be a jinx.

    I’d very much like to see Ian’s brilliant ‘outrageous predictions’ #1, #2 and #3 come true. Maybe not the last one though, if the worst happens the Resistance is going to need him.

  32. I doubt Tanya P would want the job. She has young kids to consider and a husband with a high-falutin’ government position in Sydney.

    Leadership of a party that has just lost an election is usually a poison chalice. Labor would be wise to stick a patsy in the spot, should the worst happen, and then boot him (it WILL be a ‘him’) out later for someone better.

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