FRIDAY NIGHT RAFFLES

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Was an election called this week?

Yes according to all the media.

No according to the person who made the announcement.

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Was Tony Abbott running a mini-campaign?

Yes according to the media then No as election campaigns are destabilising according to the libs.

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Does any of this matter?

Yes it does 99% of the time but not now because it’s your favorite time of your week at ” THE PUB’

FRIDAY NIGHT RAFFLES.

You know the rules pick 3 numbers 1-100 at 6.oo pm qld time or to make it easier for you supposedly intelligent people 7.00pm AEDST.

Draw will be around 7.00pm QLD TIME,8.00pm SILLY DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME.

The prize is either a quick pick sat.night lotto ticket or  for the horse doggie people a $7 pick on any race you wish.

Last week haveachat collected $20.60 on lotto and asked me to donate it to a charity Thank you.

What I have decided is if you win and want the collect which you are entitled to I will send you a check.

If you wish the winnings to be donated to a charity I will pool the money in a separate account and at the end of the year we will do a ‘polldaddy’ poll and decide who will get the donation from all of us at ‘The PUB”

Enjoy Have Fun Stay Safe

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332 thoughts on “FRIDAY NIGHT RAFFLES

  1. I invite everyone to have a look at the trendlines, especially the smoother ones that Possum provides.

    They went down after the election, then up, then down again (but not as far), then up a bit further than the last “up”. They’re on their way down again, but won’t go down as far as the last “down”.

    Much easier to cut out all the “ups” and the “downs” by just putting it as “three steps forward, two back”.

    Judging by the frequency of the waves of popularity/unpopularity, by about April-May we’re due for the next “up” for the government.

    The alternative is to see every downslope as never stopping, which a few journos once upon a time used to predict, saying the government was heading for 65-35 territory. They’re gone now, off to the Old Journos’ Home (notably Shaun Carney).

    If you accept that the government isn’t going to go into the election at 60-40, or even 65-35, then you have to figure in another upswing between now and about April-May.

    If you DO think they’re going to tank to previously unplumbed depths, then who’s got rocks in their head?

    It’s a big year. People, especially journalists, are treating the election date announcement as one of the common or garden variety. Normally the date is announced a week or so before the writs are issued. Everything’s in a flurry.

    But in this case we have simply a final confirmation of something we always knew roughly: the precise date intended. It was always going to be in September-October, despite the “Early Election” fluffing of a few.

    The date’s not really a surprise at all, just unusual that the confirmation is made so early. It’s what everyone was gearing up for as the most likely scenario anyway. So why is it so sensational?

    Habit.

    Usually when these announcement are made it’s a big deal with lots of excitement. The habit of getting excited when the date is announced is clearly hard to break.

    Things will calm down. The more rational of the voters will look at things… rationally.

    And the government will regain lost popularity sometime in April-May.

    Look at the trends, all of them, not the rubbish being written.

    Gillard is clearing the decks, making a rails opportunity available for herself and the government with no distractions, jockeys falling off or other interferences (as far as this is possible), ready for a straight run home, a last dash to the finish line.

    In racing parlance, a race caller would put it as “nicely placed as they enter the final turn”.

    She’s giving it her best shot and she wants only serious and totally committed players around her. That explains just about everything that’s happened in the last few days.

  2. BB:

    I see the trend as a smooth drift back to the ALP, offset by massive scandal-mongering in 2012. It stalled in early 2012 while Rudd decided to tilt at windmills, and then blew out badly as Thomson, Slipper and Carbon Tax! coalesced into a massive smear-bomb in the middle of the year. But almost exactly at the point where carbon pricing became a reality, the polls started turning back toward the ALP.

    A mini-smearathon over Gillard and AWU stalled things again late in the year. It’s levelling out again now.

    Let’s be clear about it – if it’s outside of policy (and specifically Economy), it only has an effect if it’s new and breathtaking. There’s nothing new and breathtaking on the horizon that I can see. We knew Slipper was a thorn in the side of the Coalition and that they had made warnings about him. And we knew that things were brewing over Thomson well before last year. The Gillard-AWU story had also been hanging around. They’ve played all the angles on all the smears they have available to them.

    If there’s a trend to come, it has to be toward the ALP. The Coalition got a lot of value out of the ammunition they had, but it was all designed to either force an election or provide them with an unassailable lead that couldn’t be overturned. Neither of those has happened. They have nothing to stand behind policy-wise, and nothing new to add either.

    They have to get behind the fortifications and snipe where they can. The ALP are starting to occupy strategic points on the battleground.

  3. They have to get behind the fortifications and snipe where they can. The ALP are starting to occupy strategic points on the battleground.

    I generally agree with you, except on the scandals. The OM has an alarming propensity to take old leftover news, done like last night’s dinner, and find new ways to rehash it as tomorrow’s breakfast.

    The Thomson thing is a case in point: add a new ingredient – the arrest – and this gives the media an instant opportunity to go over ALL the old ground, reminding people just what a rotter he was supposed to have been.

    Even the Premier of the state now apparently believes that if you’re accused of something (in another jurisdiction, I might add, to wit: Victoria) this is excuse enough to deal with the perp poetically when in custody in a manner befitting the crime (the alleged crime that is).

    Take your clothes off for hookers, will you? OK, we’ll make you take your clothes off during routine criminal processing.

    I suppose this approach would make it legitimate to rape a child molestation defendant before trial (or after). Or to throw a neg driving defendant under a bus and grind them up a little. Give ’em a dose of their own – alleged – medicine. Quite medieval, actually. Eye for an eye stuff.

    On the more positive side, I can’t see that Gillard has done anything particularly wrong, except to wrong-foot the media, who are used to their cosy processes, predictable outcomes and uncontroversial politics played by theirrules.

    Outside their game, anything else is depicted as “extraordinary”, “unexpected”, “desperate” or “counter-intuitive”. An early election announcement is thus turned into a “crisis”. A few resignations – the norm for pre-election periods – are sexed up as “Gillard on the ropes”.

    But the confident, smirking prediction only yesterday by Melissa Clarke on ABC-24 that the first two weeks of parliament were lost to the government, as they would be all about Thomson, Thomson, Thomson is already looking foolhardy.

    I’m sure there were plenty of other predictions made by other journos, but this was just one I happened to witness myself.

    Gillard has thrown down the gauntlet to the Press Gallery: accept the new rules and run with the ball. They are railing against the challenge. Their cosy meme of an easy Coalition victory is under threat.

    It’s like they can hear the bombers overhead, but they don’t know where the actual bombs will fall, on their neighbourhood or not.

    On the ABC right now the ABC-24 crew are trying like crazy to maintain the “Government in crisis” meme… cut off, rather nicely I thought, by reality: the real explanation, not the bullshit made-up one.

  4. Yep, BB. My contention for a while is that the Coalition are moving in ever decreasing circles, revisiting all their old smears one by one, and then doing the rounds again. They can squeeze more life out of Thomson, they can squeeze more life out of Slipper, and they might get little poll bumps out of them, but nothing like the 58-42 they managed when everything was running their way.

    But… Carbon Tax fear campaigns are over. Mining Tax fear campaigns are over too. They pushing it uphill saying anything against the NBN. The Gillard/AWU case backfired. Slipper now equals Ashby equals Brough equals Pyne,so victories from here on will be Pyrrhic. We’re seeing the last dregs drained of Thomson too. And they’re draining every last drop there, leaving nothing in the barrel.

    They’ll always find new horrible things to insinuate. But none of them are going to have the power to shock and frighted of the previous ones.

  5. There could be a way to disrupt the OM. journos newsline…..at a critical moment in the day, flood several of the leading OM. journs’ with misleading twitter “revelations”…false news and the like.

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